Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

[RedToothBrush]

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

6. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

7. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

8. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

9. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

10. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

11. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

12. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

Has anyone posted about Gina Miller's new campaign? She is launching UK-EU Open Policy in the next few weeks to put pressure on the government and lobby for maximum access to the single market and as few restrictions on immigration as possible. (It's in my copy of the Times, I can't link.)

Gina Miller says: "The fight is twofold now, not just fighting for the negotiation but fighting for the sort of Britain we want after Brexit."

She's got some wealthy people to bankroll it. I feel a lot happier about things due to this development .

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-nurse-shortage-40000-post-brexit-trusts-hospitals-uk-healthcare-leaked-government-a7671791.html
NHS faces shortage of more than 40,000 nurses after Brexit, says leaked government prediction

Leaky Leaky.

www.ft.com/content/8393b2d0-1b89-11e7-a266-12672483791a
EU considering excluding UK from trade talks before Brexit
Brussels worried Britain could take advantage of ‘sensitive information’

David Allen Green points out the final para:
Trade experts say one option would be for the UK to opt out of the information loop during the Brexit process in exchange for an agreement with Europe to allow it begin bilateral talks before it leaves the bloc.

I do believe that is a card we hold in our hand. I think its possibly a five of clubs.

money.cnn.com/2017/04/06/news/economy/brexit-snacks-smaller/index.html?sr=twCNN040817brexit-snacks-smaller0833PMVODtopPhoto&linkId=36331652
M&Ms and Doritos get smaller in U.K. as Brexit bites prices

Being dubbed as the Brexit Diet

Hospital and supermarket managers are already having to make very judicious decisions to keep the show on the road, I suspect.

BBC Midlands Today on Thursday ·
An NHS physiotherapist from Solihull is facing deportation back to India despite a national shortage. Anand Kumar, who's been working in Britain for the last eight years, has been told he can't stay any longer because of a change in government policy on earnings. He's now started an online petition to highlight the issue.

Anand Kumar's petition.

An utterly stupid move by the Government.

cheers Peregrina

Interesting. GV wants TM to be open to an idea for the EU to allow continued citizenship after Brexit:

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-guy-verhofstadt-associate-citizenship-theresa-may-european-parliament-a7674391.html%3Famp

This article comes from some Lord Ashcroft polling:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/08/brexit-poll-eurosceptics-think-ending-eu-payments-important/#
Brexit poll: Eurosceptics think ending EU payments more important than stopping free movement

Ain't gonna happen...

Loving this quote:
One voter said in a focus group: “If [the Prime Minister] has to choose, it’s got to be the people side of it. Tariff-free trade benefits the EU more than us because of our trade deficit.

“She’s got to be able to say we’re only allowing certain people in at certain times – that’s what people voted for. Trade is a bit of a red herring.”

Bit of a 'red herring'. Oh dear. If only you could separate the idea of people moving about when goods and service provision move about. Especially when we do not have a manufacturing based economy, and instead our economy is based on people doing stuff rather than making things.

Lord Ashcroft, writing an analysis of thepollin this paper, suggests that the findings could create an issue for the Prime Minister in the coming years.

“Voters feel, quite understandably, that we will not really have left the EU – and that their decision has not been honoured – if we still pay into it, are subject to its laws and allow unfettered immigration for its citizens,” he writes.

“But those who also believe all of this can be achieved without affecting our trading arrangements or anything else will have to be disabused of the notion sooner rather than later.”

Ermm... isn't he advocating what Remainers have been saying since, oh, before the polls closed on 23rd June. Its taken you and a survey of 10,000 people to work this out. Amazing work, sir. You are quite the expert aren't you? Are they back in fashion yet?

Meanwhile in the EU, and I don't think this is getting much coverage over here which I'm slightly surprised at, as you'd have thought this would have a few Brexiteers jumping over sofa in the style of Tom Cruise to tell you how the EU was about to come crashing down and how they are all liberal fascists.

www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/epp-warns-budapest-with-article-7-nuclear-option/
EPP warns Budapest with Article 7 ‘nuclear option’

www.politico.eu/article/hungary-eu-news-article-7-vote-poland-rule-of-law/ This is an article from last year describing what Article 7 is and what it does, together with a little bit of background to the article.

Basically, step one is an official warning and step two is sanctions against the member state including having voting rights removed. Doesn't take a genius to work out this is a) bad b) might have an impact on Brexit if it were to happen.

How likely is it to happen? I don't know. Probably unlikely. I do, however, note the article says that the ALDE (Liberal group) tried to use impose article 7 on Hungary in October but it failed. There is more on what happened here: EP committee rejects Liberal group Article 7 initiative against Hungary

Crucially on that occasion in October this was the line from the EPP:
Monika Hohlmeier of the European People’s Party group said the liberal group had attacked Hungary’s prime minister over his handling of the migrant crisis because of his focus on security. She noted that authorities in Slovenia also used tear gas on migrants, yet the liberal group has only brought up the expulsion of Hungary from the EU because it is governed by Fidesz, while Slovenia, she noted, has a liberal government.

The EPP are the largest group in the parliament so this represents a potentially significant reversal. To trigger article 7 it would need the support of 2/3 of the European Parliament or 4/5 of the European Council.

That said, even with the EPP and the ALDE on board the idea would still be far short of the number of votes needed to trigger article 7 under either route. They would need the support of second largest group, the Party of European Socialists (PES) too. And even then they would be about 50 votes short via the Parliament. However via the council these three parties do hold the magic 23 out of 28 votes needed.

This seems to be quite a turn around in events and change of position. I don't think its going anywhere just yet, but I do think the story has the potential to sprout legs and through a curve ball at the EU. Especially if various third parties think its a way to sow the seeds of division within the EU. It could be a very unwelcome distraction from Brexit talks (potentially with some benefits to the UK, but also it would take time away from us too).

Keep an eye on this story developing. I think it might brew up into more yet.

Indy 100 carrying story about 7 quotes that sum up Brexit:
www.indy100.com/article/brexit-britain-subreddit-7-quotes-funny-theresa-may-european-union-leavers-brexiters-7674126

They are all good. Can't decide which is my favourite. I think Blackadder might just edge it over the Dark Knight.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/08/labour-mps-accused-of-dirty-tricks-in-unite-poll-by-len-mccluskey?CMP=twt_gu

Sorry posted too soon on the post above:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/08/labour-mps-accused-of-dirty-tricks-in-unite-poll-by-len-mccluskey?CMP=twt_gu
Labour MPs accused of ‘dirty tricks’ in Unite poll by Len McCluskey

I don't think I can be arsed to even talk about that shower of shit.

The interesting paragraph is this one:

The Observer has also learned from Liberal Democrat and Labour sources that Tim Farron’s party is likely to run Labour closer than was expected in a byelection – also on 4 May – in the previously safe Labour seat of Manchester Gorton. Labour retained the seat at the 2015 general election, with a majority over the Tories of more than 24,000.

You don't say?! Surely not. I'm sure I mentioned that some time ago. The LD will be very pleased that they are being suggested by the media that they are even within spitting distance on that one. It is starting to all add up though, George 'The Cat' Galloway, Labour Anti-Semitism and just general Labour Fruitcakes are combination that scream it.

Oh, did I mention the big posters in both Liverpool and Manchester for the Mayoral elections on 4th May?

They are being promoted by 'The Northern Powerhouse' so look like they are general ones to promote the elections rather than being partisan ones. They are official government ones.

What gets me about them is they have 'Your Mayor' in white and then 'Your Vote' in yellow. It almost has a subconscious message in there, purely from the choice of colour of the words. On the face of it, its just a colour and looks totally innocent. The other party of me, just wonders. I certainly (and I have a background in design) would not design anything in that way using red, yellow, blue, purple or green in that particular way for that very reason.

I tried to find a copy of the poster to show you exactly what I mean, but could find one of the exact ones.

However this is the same branding on the government website.
ourmayor.campaign.gov.uk/

I find it fascinating they have gone with yellow. In my experience it would be a complete no, no.

Btw, looking at the figures and the betting for the Mayor elections, the Conservatives could well benefit from a defection from Lab to LD, whilst the CON to LD effect is less likely to hinder them. On all six votes.

I'm not convinced LDs will threaten to win on any even though its not FPTP.

We shall see on the day.

Brussels estimates 3-7 years after Brexit for a trade deal to be agreed.
Sounds reasonable time for a trade deal
That's 2021-2026
It's a relief that the EU have stated expat rights must be agreed before trade talks start, not in parallel.

http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/brexit-after-article-50-rollercoaster-ride

"After an exit deal is done (if it is done) on the rights of EU citizens, the UK’s budget liabilities, and a transition arrangement, there may also be an outline of the goals and nature of a new trade agreement.

But in Brussels the view is that it will take another 3-7 years after the UK leaves in 2019 to agree such a deal
– which will then need to be ratified by 38 parliaments across the EU 27 including regional parliaments.

Such a deal will put more barriers – mainly non-tariff barriers – in the way of UK companies than they face today.
It will, almost by definition, damp down UK-EU27 trade rather than encourage it to grow."

We've moved on, but I agree the airstrike in Syria was grandstanding and not meant as a serious military intervention.

Basically, Trump is happy to see Russia do the heavy lifting /unpopular work that he wants to see done in Syria (i.e. crush ISIS in Syria, remove the threat to Israel) and has no intention of getting rid of Assad yet. Maybe never.

What a pity the rah-rah section is always so ready to jump up and cheer for American bombs, no questions asked. The UK in particular never seems to learn to avoid the egg all over the face problem. (Looking at you Tim Farron).

Apologies for linking to the Daily Mail but other coverage of story is behind the Times paywall

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4394350/UK-trade-secrets-spotted-7-22.html

So wildlife and the environment generally to pay the price for Brexit. Still, so long as we "take back control" eh?

I don't really have an opinion on the Syria bombing as I don't really know enough about the ME. But the fact that both the alt-right and the far left are against it gives me pause for thought. I have an Assad-apologist, pro-Putin, Scots Nat posting about it on my FB timeline and my general feeling is that I don't want to be on her side of the fence, so I shall probably continue my cowardly fence-sitting operation for the time being.

I found the interview with the former British Ambassador to Syria on BBC Breakfast interesting: refusing to agree with Charlie in blaming the Assad regime and that the air strikes were necessary. He said we don't know yet; that's why a proper investigation is needed and drew analogies with what we "knew" and what we'd used for justification in the Iraq War and what we subsequently found to be false.

He wasn't being an apologist for Assad (who he said was ruthless) and didn't deny that there had been an air strike, but said that at this stage we don't know whether it was the Assad planes that dropped a chemical weapon or whether their conventional weapon hit a store of chemical weapons.

In any case, the US response was pure grandstanding with no real ongoing impact (especially given advance warning ) and purely for the benefit of the US media/public. It also conveniently took the spotlight off the Trump regime's alleged links with Putin/Russia

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/08/boris-johnson-spearhead-diplomatic-drive-get-russian-forces/

Things that worry me on above:
1 Trump's Russian links removed from news agenda, and Kushner's mega debt to Russia and Tillerson's conflict of interest issues have disappeared too from news and social media.
2 How does this affect Britain's role as arms supplier to Saudi who support you know who?
3 Who is paying for and supporting this action, really?
4 Up till now with reference to leaders in non democratic countries, it was a case of "He's a bastard, but he's our bastard" school of diplomacy. Has this now changed to the more nebulous" They're thugs/ freedom fighters but they're our thugs/ freedom fighters?" Or as even the allegedly sexually incontinent foreign secretary pointed out as a dangerous vicarious chess game.

I have no answers, but fuck with this at great human, potentially global expense Bojo, May and Bannon. ( and Tim). And there's another proven sexually incontinent bully who needs to be or who is being taken down. Is this President Pence's first international action?
www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mike-pence-syria-no-fly-zone_us_57f46a32e4b015995f2bf01e

Link to the interview

"I don't leave my brains at the door when I analyse a situation"

Interesting prettybird. "And a gullible media will fall victim to 'false flag' operations", Ford said.
"Oil price will spike, and the Russians and Syrians will give less co operation in the fight against ISIS".
Who does this benefit? President Pence.

Fascinating analysis of the vote LD get Conservative strategy RTB and very much in line with what I was getting at earlier in the week. Sadly swing LD voters never seem to learn that fence sitting usually results in exactly the opposite of what they thought they voted for - whether the Lib/Lab pact or the great progressive alliance?

It's a problem when the US and UK have such a track record of lying over the ME, to further their own commercial interests / the interests of big party donors

As well as the lies of WMDs in Iraq, remember the lies in the previous war (1990) against Iraq, after they invaded Kuwait :
that Iraqi forces were stealing incubators from Kuwaiti hospitals, so they were taking Kuwaiti babies off them and leaving those tiny babies to die ?

That story was all over the media, really inflaming outrage against Saddam and ramping up the demands for war.
It was also a complete invention.
Found out only once the war was over.
(the war was indeed justified, because an ally was invaded, but getting away with lies set a dangerous precedent)

I suggest a policy that would really help stop violence in the ME and terrorism in the West:
which doesn't mean saving the ME by missile strikes, bombs and drones on its people:

stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia !

Stop propping up a theocratic regime with horrific human rights violations against women, secular bloggers, anyone who dares criticise the bloated corrupt royal family of umpteen thousand members.

Even better, impose sanctions against Saudi Arabia
Like we do against other "outlaw" states that export terror
They are the real source of most of it

Shameful how the West sucks up to the vile Saudi regime
Shameful that the UK govt is crawling even more than usual, to sell British weapons to evil dictators
(delusional to think they will be our evil dictators, on our side)

Thanks HPFA we'be been waiting for that story to see the light of day for a while! Might not have spotted it

The Times:* If you were an EU leader, would you trust us?

"*Seen from Brussels and beyond, Theresa May must appear hopelessly compromised by her own hard‑headed right wing."
*
"*If I were a European politician, would I trust the British?
Or, more specifically, would I be negotiating a deal on the basis that the British government could deliver it, even if agreed?"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/if-you-were-an-eu-leader-would-you-trust-us-qblvg5gj2

"Over decades, German sources told me this week, the stock of Britain has been high.
Our governments have stuck to their promises, delivered to their allies and been diplomatically astute.
But recent events have shocked them."
< shocked many of us too ! >

"Johnson compares the EU to the Nazi occupation [blithering idiot emotican required]
At this point the foreign minister (now president) of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, actively considered not being in the same room as the loveable chubster."

"the European Research Group, describing this collection of MPs and others as “the most powerful opposition force in British politics"

”The aim of the group ....
little or no severance money to the EU,
little or no jurisdiction from the European Court,
a gung-ho up-yours stance concerning relationships with the single market,
and a corresponding impatience with those who raise objections to their vision.

" demanding that the BBC tell the “good news” — Jehovah’s Witness-style — about Brexit.
Or else.
....a campaign for Britain to dump all the European “red tape” (much of which concerns environmental and labour protection)"

"Germans think Britain would be mad to end up dealing with the EU on WTO terms.
.... They even think Theresa May must agree.
But she is now boxed"

In a normal parliament a strong centre/centre left opposition could act as a corrective to this push from the fantasy right.
.....
But this is the era of the Jeremy and Ken assisted dying show, of nine Lib Dems, an SNP which is now back to doing the Greta Garbo independence dance and of sensible Tories terrified into silence for fear of getting what is now known as “the Nicky Morgan treatment”.

This leaves May and the ERGs.
With what confidence, if you were a European, would you negotiate with a Britain enduring that kind of political dynamic?
Might you not begin to believe that until the prime minister publicly confronts and defeats the WhatsAppniks, it would be absurdly optimistic to expect any deal?"