Westminstenders: And so it begins

[RedToothBrush]

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

Yes, but it would be beneficial to all parties, and allow the leave voters to feel like they have left the EU, when they haven't really. You know they are more bothered about feelings than facts.

But how would the government sell the fact that we would still have FoM and ECJ?

Unfortunately this won't satisfy people like the Minister for the 1940s.

I still say the Minister for the 1870s, and MP for North Somerset, might find he doesn't get a say come 2020. Also see the Minister for Vulcan, who represents Wokingham. The Minister for Sexist Pigs, in Shipley is a marked man. Poor love has been victimised and targeted by all these nasty feminists. And if the trend continues too much the Minister for Pedants, who represents North East Somerset might want to watch his back too.

Sadly, I don't think there is any chance of the Minister of Cake going. Nor the Minister for Slap Heads, of Chingford and Woodford Green. And the Lord of Anglo-Spanish Relations, is of course a life peer.

And sadly although he is about to lose his part-time job in Brussels, we are permanently stuck with the MEP for Stupid Gurns, no matter what. He just won't fuck off to America to work for his mate or Fox News. Cos they don't want him either. He is the obnoxious kid that no one wants to sit next to at school, but the teachers let do everything with the intention of shutting him up. Except it never works.

The rules would be fudged. ECJ ruling on disputes to do with EU matters, UK supreme court on those for the UK. Freedom of movement is likely to continue is some form anyway, or a more relaxed version of the visa system, with reciprocal rights for UK workers.

As long as people feel that we are free of the EU then it will be fine.

Poor dears who do realise are going to be so cross. Tee hee.

They would have their blue passports, so they would think they had left. It would be a winning situation for the EU - we pay our dues and they don't have to listen to our constant whining. Oh, and we still have immigration, because it's needed.

But how would the government sell the fact that we would still have FoM and ECJ?

The vast majority of the public think a compromise on FoM acceptable...

The ECJ might yet have to be used during Brexit. Which could get interesting...

Maybe the EU is not such a basket case after all .....

@timoconnorbl: One under-remarked effect of this: it may reduce U.K. leverage still further by filling funding gaps.
https://www.ft.com/content/a1135284-1869-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

As Tim O'Connor goes on to say,
the primary funding of the EU budget is based on GNI. As that rises across the EU, so does the contribution, filling gaps left by Brexit.

.....therefore Meaning "We'll walk" becomes even less of threat to the EU27.

We could have blue passpots now if we wanted. Croatia don't.

The reason we don't already is because blue UK passports are for refugees...

This was my argument a few weeks ago so it is good to see that every remainers' favourite Brexiter is on the same wavelength ;)

if remaining were the object then this monumental cock up starts to look fiendishly clever

I don't think it is entirely strategic, as it would be pretty hard to look this clueless if you were actually implementing a cunning strategy (and I don't think Richard North really believes this either) - but the fact that negotiations have gone this badly this early is I think probably good news if you think that remain-in-all-but-name is preferable to a chaotic brexit late in the negotiation process. IMO it reduces but does not eliminate the risk of an accidental hard brexit.

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86433

Also see the Minister for Vulcan, who represents Wokingham.

He is going to be a difficult one to unseat, with a majority of 24197 at the last election. However, in 2001 he only had a majority of 5,994, so it would still be worth a punt on unseating him.

Rumour had it that he was out canvassing the other week for a Local Election candidate, and they lost anyway. No surprise, maybe, would you want him marching up your drive and ringing your doorbell?

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/memo-my-select-committee-colleagues-you-cant-walk-out-brexit
Memo to my select committee colleagues - you can't walk out of Brexit

by Pat McFadden MP for Wolverhampton South

The MP for Vulcan used to be Secretary of State for Wales - who can forget the footage of him being beaten by the national anthem.

Anyway, at the time some inventive Welsh activists visited Wokingham to distribute flyers asking the constituents to please take him back as the Welsh weren't keen on him. Mostly they were ignored, but one bloke told them that they could damn well keep him, the Vulcan was a tit and he really didn't want him back.

Obviously in a minority but who knows how many more may come round to that way of thinking.

It's not just Gibraltar that has been forgotten about:

data.parliament.uk/WrittenEvidence/CommitteeEvidence.svc/EvidenceDocument/Exiting%20the%20European%20Union/The%20UK’s%20negotiating%20objectives%20for%20its%20withdrawal%20from%20the%20EU/written/49464.html

Vulcan's constituency was strongly Remain, so there is some hope, and as you say, he's a prat anyway.

As far as passports go, there is a simple solution - we get the blue ones, and we dish out maroon ones to refugees. Sorted.

At the recent demonstration, joly Maugham suggested we all go home and put a bet on the UK not leaving the EU.

This is the kind of thing that appeals to my DH, who cleverly bet on the conservatives winning the 2015 election with an outright majority.

You'd have to bet on some sort of time span however.

Ah Ken Livingston... Up against the disciplinary panel. He's been suspended for another year after his Hitler comments. Not expelled.

And they send out Shami Chakrabarti to defend the decision.

It's not going down well with some Labour MPs:

Luciana Berger @lucianaberger
A new low for my party this evening. Appalling decision. Why is antisemitism being treated differently from any other form of racism?

Tulip Siddiq @TulipSiddiq
Absolutely ridiculous. Why has this man not been expelled?!

Jenny Roberts
it's disgusting. You're my MP I want to vote for you but not this version of the party. Something, anything has to change

Tulip Siddiq @TulipSiddiq
I know. I'm so upset

George Eaton @georgeeaton
Labour MP: "I'm getting word that lots of Jewish people quitting Labour tonight."

Mark Russell @markrusselluk
It won't just be Jewish people, it'll be those of us who joined labour to stand against racism and find out our party now turns a blind eye

Sigh.

Starwars Day will be fun. I don't think the force with be with Labour somehow...

When are some of these MPs going to jump ship and go independent or defect?

SWP has anti semitic form. Bad call, labour.

Ken abides because he knows where the bodies are.

Get rid of the leadership who have to cowtow to him because of this.

Dave Milliband would wipe the floor with the front bench of the Tories.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Philip Hammond says "some" Tory MPs don't want Theresa May to strike an FTA with the EU.

But who are they?? How many do they number??

Allie Tension @AllieRenison
i bizarrely feel the need to protect Spreadsheet Phil like some endangered species and that's alarming

Help me Obi-Wan Spreadsheet Phil. You're my only hope.

I think we can guess no?

Turns out suspension actually means suspended from holding office. He is still a full member and can attend meetings...

That horseshoe effect showing again.
Any MP who actually gives a crap now should join with Clegg.

Help me Obi-Wan Spreadsheet Phil. You're my only hope
RedToothbrush If the answer's bad don't ask the question.

"However, in an interview with Sky News, Mr Hammond was asked seven times whether his department had attempted to calculate the economic impact of the Government not reaching a deal with its European counterparts.

Mr Hammond said "we are looking at the possible range of outcomes", but refused to answer specifically whether his department had carried out work analogous to the forecasts it famously made before the referendum".

news.sky.com/story/no-official-brexit-economic-forecast-carried-out-since-eu-referendum-10825007

"senior Government sources have now told me that in the wake of the vote, the Treasury was so disturbed by the response to its forecasts of an economic downturn that it decided to "lock them in the cabinet" and not carry out any detailed updates".

A disturbed treasury.