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Brexit

Westminstenders: And so it begins

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/03/2017 08:30

Promises made that can not be kept.

We have already fallen at the first stumbling block: the desire for parallel talks on exit and future relationship that May wanted has been rejected. Not that this is a surprise seeing as we were told this.

This isn't two years of negotiations for a good deal. Forget any suggestions that it is. It's two years of damage limitation and domestic pr.

For both the UK and EU.

I do believe that May's attitude - which seemed to be more friendly in her speech and letter yesterday - has burnt all our bridges.

This talk of the world needing the EU's 'liberal democracy' isn't aimed at the EU though. Her use of the words that produced uproar in the HoC yesterday was deliberate. Why use it? It was always going to produce a reaction.

When May says she will have a consensus at home to achieve this goal one of two things must happen: to prove just how much we need the EU to make a political reversal possible at the expense of her head or to vilify the EU to a point that Remainers suddenly change their mind.

To get a good deal for the UK she can not satisfy her hard line Brexiteers. It is impossible purely because to do otherwise is like breaking the laws of physics. Trade is done mostly with who you are closest too. This is the inescapable truth. We are leaving the EU but not Europe as keeps being pointed out.

If we want to trade we have to accept EU regulations. If we do not, we do not trade. Rules we can now no longer influence by must obey.

We can not reduce immigration. We have had control of non-Eu immigration and that is not going down due to skills shortages. To combat this schools are getting less money.

In terms of sovereignty and British parliament we just gave that away. The 'Great' Repeal Act is a power grab by the executive. It seems to give the powers of the monarch to Mrs May and take them away from parliamentary scrutiny. At the same time we are forced to become beholden to Trump's America. A man who screws people for a living and has not a shred of honour.

Using security as our bargaining chip misses the obvious. If we do not cooperate we endanger Brits abroad and ourselves domestically. Are we really prepared to stop?

The opportunities of Brexit Britain are bleak. This will be normalised.

Good luck folks. We are gonna need it.

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Thread gallery
14
RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 15:24

news.sky.com/story/no-signed-future-brexit-deal-within-two-years-says-theresa-may-10824347
No signed 'future' Brexit deal within two years, says Theresa May
The UK will adopt 'third party status' in order to conduct trade negotiations after the two-year Article 50 process, says the PM

No Deal in two years. Repeat. No Deal in two years. Repeat. NO DEAL IN TWO YEARS.

Who would have thunk....?

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woman12345 · 04/04/2017 15:24

"Up to 100,000 UK jobs at risk as Merkel and Juncker ally warns on euro clearing. EU lawmaker Manfred Weber says sector must relocate out of City of London after Brexit

A recent report from the accountants Ernst & Young echoed those comments, but additionally claimed that losing the business could have “a significant domino effect on jobs and revenue”, hitting up to 232,000 workers throughout the UK "

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 15:25

Just to repeat. NO DEAL IN TWO YEARS.

WE ARE RUNNING INTO ELECTION CAMPAIGNING TIME.

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woman12345 · 04/04/2017 15:26

How does having no trade deal work?

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 15:28

www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukip-leaflet-blames-nhs-crisis-on-too-many-women-doctors?utm_term=.lgv0V8Q4l#.vx38XEyMm
UKIP Leaflet Blames NHS Crisis On Too Many Women Doctors
"Do we need female doctors?" asks one of the party's candidates.

Yes, check your watch. This is 2017.

So now its not immigrants, its women destroying the NHS.

Just so you can all get really angry at women taking all those jobs from men.

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RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 15:31

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/04/tory-minister-root-cause-of-poverty-is-not-financial/#more-62954
Tory minister: Root cause of poverty is “not financial”

Gee. What is it then? Not believing in the Brexit Santa?

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woman12345 · 04/04/2017 15:32

3rd nation status gives terrible trading rates, right? I'm being dumb, what does that do, will British companies simply not be able to trade, how will food be imported? Is this abandoning an election for 'economic crisis'?

Fascism hates feminism and UKIP are scum.

missmoon · 04/04/2017 15:39

Isn't the idea that there will be a transitional arrangement, so that the details of the trade deal can be worked out over time?

woman12345 · 04/04/2017 15:44

Is there an idea?

prettybird · 04/04/2017 15:48

"Root cause of poverty is not financial" Confused

That would explain why they think that "trickle down economics" us a valid strategy Hmm - enriches you your donors friends and it doesn't really matter how little much actually trickles down to the underpeople AngrySad

woman12345 · 04/04/2017 16:03

Bit of gossip re chocolate eggs:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/why-did-theresa-may-scramble-comment-national-trust-easter-egg-row

"Civil servants and former special advisers believe that May’s swift response is due to her longstanding antipathy to Helen Ghosh, the National Trust's director-general, with whom she clashed when Ghosh was permanent secretary at the Home Office and May was Home Secretary.

Another former special adviser said that May was “obsessed with revenge”. A senior figure described the new Downing Street set-up as “thin-skinned”. "

RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 16:05

Brexit Select Committee Report

Schona Jolly QC‏*@WomaninHavana*
In any rational world, this common sense conclusion of @CommonsEUexit report (out now) couldn't be controversial.

Without an economic assessment of 'no deal' having been done and without evidence that steps are being taken to mitigate what would be the damaging effect of such an outcome, the Government's assertion that "no deal is better than a bad deal", is unsubstantiated. The Government should set out what contingency planning is taking place for the risk that there is "no deal" at the end of the Article 50 negotiating period and undertake an economic and legal assessment of such an outcome - in which the UK would fall back on trading under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules - the cross-party Exiting the EU Committee concludes in its report

2/ Brexit Sec @DavidDavisMP confirmed to @CommonsEUexit that a 'No Deal' would affect tariffs, passporting rights & Irish border.
3/ Report recommends that prioritising Irish border concerns should be top of the list for negotiating priorities. Hard to argue with that.
4/ Govt must establish more effective process for engaging devolved adminis, & formally respond to Welsh, Scottish & NI option papers.
5/ Some prescient comments about Gibraltar in the report. Something about Govt looking for solutions (war with Spain isn't in there, btw).
6/ Take this by way of forewarning on Gibraltar. UK reaction - blindsided & imperial - is ridiculous in face of entirely predictable circs

  1. In the referendum, 96 per cent of the Gibraltarian electorate vote in favour of remaining in the EU. The Chief Minister of Gibraltar, the Hon. Fabian Picardo QC told us that: "the people of Gibraltar did not vote on the basis of whether we liked the European Union or whether the European Union was faultless. I think we could all understand many of the issues that were being put in argument by those who were arguing to leave the European Union. Many of the frustrations that people felt with the European Union are equally felt in Gibraltar, as they might be felt in the United Kingdom and elsewhere throughout the EU. The people of Gibraltar were voting because we were very clear that the minute the result came in, if it was to leave, Spain would be putting the issue of Gibraltar's sovereignty on the table"

7/ Cttee has urged Govt to publish Great Repeal Bill in draft because of important constitutional & legal issues posed by unique challenge.

  1. The Government has announced its intention to introduce a “Great Repeal Bill” to provide legal certainty for the UK on leaving the EU. The Bill will be designed to repeal the European Communities Act 1972 and convert the acquis of existing EU law into domestic law. Accordingly, on the day after the UK leaves the EU, the same legislation will apply as applied before exit. The UK Parliament and, where appropriate the devolved legislatures, will then be able to determine which legislation they wish to keep, amend or repeal. The Bill is also expected to delegate powers to Ministers to amend “laws that would otherwise not function sensibly once we have left the EU” by means of secondary legislation.

  2. In its report on The “Great Repeal Bill” and Delegated Powers, the House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution noted that the UK Government and Parliament faced a unique challenge in transposing the full body of EU law into domestic law, not least because “the body of EU law is found in a number of different places”. Some EU law underpins existing UK legislation (for example EU directives which must be converted into domestic law) and some is directly applicable in the UK (for example EU regulations that apply directly in the UK under the terms of the European Communities Act 1972). The Select Committee on the Constitution noted that:

Yet further elements of the body of EU law are non-legislative in nature, consisting, for example, of judgments made by the Court of Justice of the European Union, regulatory rulings by EU agencies, or in the interpretation of our own courts.

The Lords Committee added that the task was complicated by the fact that in many areas, the final shape of the law will depend on the outcome of negotiations on the UK’s exit, but preparations will have to be made in time to come into force on the day that the UK leaves the EU.

12.The “Great Repeal Bill” itself will not be a straightforward undertaking and will raise a number of important constitutional and legal questions, in particular:

  • Whether and how the Bill will seek to remove references to EU institutions and agencies from the EU law which is to be transposed into domestic law and what institutions will be referred to in their place;
  • The breadth and scope of any “Henry VIII powers” contained in the Bill which will enable Ministers to make changes to primary legislation which applies EU law through secondary legislation and, if so, how these will be limited;
  • Whether the Bill will require legislative consent motions from the devolved legislatures;
  • The impact on the constitutional settlements of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland; and
  • Whether judgments of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will continue to be relied on in UK courts after Brexit in order to interpret the transposed acquis.
  1. The nature of the legislative powers that will be delegated and the appropriateness of Parliamentary procedures for their consideration are the subject of an inquiry launched by the House of Commons Procedure Committee.

  2. In our First Report, we urged the Government to publish the “Great Repeal Bill” in draft to enable the “fullest scrutiny” of its provisions to take place before formal consideration took place in Parliament. This was merited “given the significance of the repatriation of legislative competences to the UK for the constitutional makeup of the UK [and the] implications for the devolution settlement”. The Secretary of State told us that the White Paper on the Bill had been delayed by the elections in Northern Ireland (and the Government’s desire to inform the Northern Ireland Executive in advance of publication), but would be published soon.

8/ You may remember my thread on last week's so-called Great Repeal Bill. Summary was - nine months later, where's the detail & a draft?

9/ The Commitee has something sensible to say, too, about Govt's "red line" on CJEU. In short, it may not be quite so simple in reality.

  1. Ending the jurisdiction of the CJEU over the UK is one of the Prime Minister’s “red lines” in negotiations. The European Communities Act 1972, which the Government is planning to repeal, provides that rulings of the CJEU are binding on UK courts. Whilst the UK is likely to move away from the jurisdiction of the CJEU on exiting the EU, the terms of the UK’s future relationship with the EU may entail continuing regulatory conformity in certain areas, such as certain product standards or data protection. Where regulatory conformity provides the basis of the continuing relationship, this may necessitate agreeing dispute resolution procedures, in trade and other areas, which require continuing account to be taken by UK courts of CJEU case law, just as in any similar agreement with another country the UK courts would take account of the other country’s rulings.

10/ On EU nationals in U.K. & UK nationals in EU: Unconscionable" for over 4m people to live in a state of uncertainty over future status.

11/ Cttee recommends Govt & EU27 prioritise a stand-alone separate deal on status of nationals, not dependent on trade deal being agreed.

12/ Cttee took a very dim view of Govt's failure to do impact assessment of leaving EU without a deal. Who could properly argue with that?

293.We note the Foreign Affairs Committee’s recent conclusion that a ‘no deal’ scenario “represents a very destructive outcome leading to mutually assured damage for the EU and the UK”. We share that view. It is, therefore, very important that both the UK and the EU avoid reaching the end of the two-year negotiating period without an agreement. The Government has talked about walking away from a bad deal, but has not yet explained what terms would be demonstrably worse for the UK than ‘no deal’. The Government should therefore conduct a thorough assessment of the economic, legal and other implications of leaving the EU at the end of the Article 50 period with ‘no deal’ in place. This should be published. The public and Parliament have a right to the maximum possible information about the impact of the different future trading options being considered, including the possibility of no FTA being reached.

13/ In summary,report looks at at many of the big important areas which will affect the UK's future & which Govt #WhitePaper didn't address.

14/ I have to stop but even a quick glance through @CommonsEUexit report shows pragmatism, common sense & the scale of issue facing us.

15/ That this has caused controversy & pro-Brexiteers walked out shows they aren't willing to face facts.It's destructive ideology at play.

16/ Oh & here's the link to @CommonsEUexit report on Govt negotiating objectives for Brexit. Read for yourself & see

www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/exiting-the-european-union-committee/news-parliament-2015/brexit-white-paper-report-published-16-17/
'No deal is better than a bad deal' claim unsubstantiated

RTB: Please do take the time to read the report (or at least the summary). Its important. It shows up just how irresponsible the government are being, and they are being advised, by other MPs.

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RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 16:10

So May is revengeful. Oh that bodes well doesn't it?!

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/04/trump-support/
New poll shows confidence in Trump is collapsing among his core supporters

Republicans: Trump’s approval rating is at 74% – 14 points down on March
White men:Trump’s now has the support of less than half of white men with an approval rating of 49% – down 9 points on March
Rural America:Trump’s approval rating is at 41% – down 15 points on March

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RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 16:18

www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/internet/2017/04/technology-and-tragedy-how-government-uses-terrorism-justify
Technology and tragedy: How the government uses terrorism to justify surveillance
Can wetrust that new security measures are anti-terrorist and not anti-democracy?

You should care precisely because these proposed measures are disproportionate. Though one death from terrorism is one death too many, only 1.4 deaths a year are caused by terrorism in the UK. You are more likely to be killed by a cow or a vending machine. Why, then, should every British citizen’s right to privacy be curtailed? Why should we spend billions of pounds a year on counterterrorism measures? Why not ban vending machines?

Who wants to join me in the 'Ban The Cow Campaign'?

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RedToothBrush · 04/04/2017 16:20

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/german-president-attacks-irresponsible-brexit-campaign?CMP=twt_gu
German president attacks 'irresponsible' Brexit campaign

Hope May doesn't take that personally...

Actually.

I do hope she does.

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woman12345 · 04/04/2017 16:20

From the conclusion:
"We welcome the Secretary of State’s assurance that Parliament will have a vote on any final deal reached under Article 50 and any agreement on the UK’s future relationship with the EU before the European Parliament votes on it, but we also believe that Parliament must have a vote in the event that there is ‘no deal’. Leaving the EU without a future trade deal and in doing so defaulting to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules is no less an important decision for the UK’s economic future than the terms of any future Free Trade Agreement between the UK and the EU. It is therefore essential that such a step is not taken without Parliament having a vote on the matter. (Paragraph 33)"
Could this be an 'in' for democratic tories/libs/labour? ( Don't think 'remain' had any currency with our present status as idiot/warship/ racist/easteregg nation.)

woman12345 · 04/04/2017 16:29

Such a relief to read Steinmeier speaking the truth about Brexit.

Strange addendum on the flailing Trump ( sounds like a bottom illness):

@noahbarkin
Trump called Merkel to congratulate her on an election victory in tiny Saarland. Truly bizarre

@LarryAdamSmith @faisalislam
This feels like it might have shaped the change of heart

EU is still standing strong. Thank god.

Dannythechampion · 04/04/2017 16:36

"in doing so defaulting to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules"

Argh, that's not how the WTO works, even the MPs in charge don't know what the hell they are on about.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2017 16:42

Warning: Major job losses to come in Uk finance industry

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit

Manfred Weber, leader of the largest political group in the EU parliament:
euro-denominated clearing can no longer be undertaken in London when the UK leaves the EU.^^

“EU citizens decide on their own money.

When the UK is leaving the European Union it is not thinkable that at the end the whole euro business is managed in London.

This is an external place, this is not an EU place any more.
The euro business should be managed on EU soil.”

He also said he had been surprised by UK reaction in the UK to the EU decision to give Spain a veto wrt Gibraltar in any future EU-UK trade deal:

“From now on we will have the interests of the EU27 in mind, not of the British.
That’s the outcome when you leave this family”

“Some of the politicians in London have not understood what leaving the European Union means.
It means being alone.”

6 months ago, Xavier Rolet, the head of the London Stock Exchange, said at least 100,000 jobs could be lost if the City lost the right to euro-denominated clearing.
Job losses would not just be in London, but also across the UK in risk management, compliance, middle office and back-office support functions

A recent report from the accountants Ernst & Young echoed those comments, but additionally claimed that losing the business could have “a significant domino effect on jobs and revenue”, hitting up to 232,000 workers throughout the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/10/hard-brexit-threatens-global-financial-system-city-chiefs-tell-mps

(“Clearing houses are independent parties that sit between the two parties in a trade and are tasked with managing the risk if one side defaults on payment. London clears around three-quarters of all euro-denominated trades).

London’s dominance in the sector has long been a source of contention within the EU, with the French government being particularly aggressive in attempts to get in on the trades.

Britain fought a four-year battle in the courts to block an attempt in 2011 by the European Central Bank to require clearing houses with significant euro-denominated business to be based in the eurozone.”

< After the UK leaves the EU, that ECJ decision will no longer apply >

Peregrina · 04/04/2017 16:48

Very often when there is dissent to a Report, the dissenters will produce a minority report setting out their point of view. Have the six Leaver MPs who chose not to sign Hilary Benn's report, produced an alternative?

Let me guess - the answer will be no.

Dannythechampion · 04/04/2017 16:48

So project reality appears to be coming true even more.

Job losses.
Firms moving.
Scottish vote for another ref
Irish border problems
Gibraltar is an issue.
Currecny has tanked.
Inflation is rapidly rising.
Brain drain of scientists.
EU staff leaving the NHS.

Apart from the housing market crash causing a recession and punishment budget it's all true.

Now which of the promises of the leave campaign are true?

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2017 16:51

afaik, no major developed country trades only via WTO rules
They normally have additionally multilateral and bilateral trade agreements too.
Which the UK may take years to obtain
(quick deals are simple - and terrible: just give the other guys all they ask for)

As we've said many times:
Even getting WTO approval for UK schedules & quotas is very complicated

Also, any country with a grudge - hello, Argentina ?, Kenya ? - or wanting concessions on aid or immigration - so, any developing country - can block the UK.

Since the UK has been toughest on demanding concessions & changes from the last 40 or so countries to join the WTO, there may be payback for that reason too.

The problem with going through the world making enemies is that if ever you get into a vulnerable position, you can expect a kicking

lalalonglegs · 04/04/2017 17:00

Danny - it's part of my living to keep an eye on property prices and I'd say that, in London at least, the market has dropped significantly in the past few months. I know people who have put -20% offers on houses in desirable areas and been accepted; prices achieved at auction have been way down; lots and lots isn't selling and houses are either being reduced or withdrawn. It stuns me that people on the street generally haven't clocked this yet - it's even being written up in the papers and it still doesn't seem to have entered mainstream consciousness.

Peregrina · 04/04/2017 17:08

Mind you, prices dropping in the housing market in the South East and London might be seen as one of the few advantages of Brexit. DD is trying to get on the housing ladder and has had little success. The stuff she could afford is rubbish.

Dannythechampion · 04/04/2017 17:13

I'm in London Lala and in property, I've noticed it too, but I think the only people moving now are those that have to, anyone who bought prior to 2011 is also totally safe.

The crash hasn't happened, yet, it might come though, whats more worrying is that if it does come, deposit sizes increase, multiples of salaries offered on mortgages decrease, so first timers are no worse off.

Who is better off? Like 2008 the cash rich who can buy outright.