Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

Mother - I have no idea, and I don't suppose Theresa May and the three stooges have either.

Can't seem to post direct link but Professor Michael Dougan from University of Liverpool discusses legal implications between NI and ROI

Northern Ireland risks being the primary victim of Brexit

www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf

The single Conservative MP in Scotland has said they won't even discuss a Scottish referendum

@DavidMundellDCT: #indyref2 before Brexit process is complete is unfair, so can't be agreed. Nor will there be any negotiations in response to such a request

My personal opinion is that this will not only not go done with Scots voters but will also go down like a lead balloon with the EU's negotiating team. It will actually give Scotland a stronger voice with them, as it provides proof that the Three Stooges WM Government cannot talk for Scotland, so that they need to talk direct to the Scottish Government. Whereas if there was a Referendum on the cards, the EU might be a bit more circumspect about talking to/about Scotland until the result was known.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/28/scottish-parliament-votes-for-second-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon

Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of a second referendum.
So we are now heading for a very big clash.
Worth remembering too that DC promised a lot to Scotland at the time of the first referendum, which hasn't been actioned.
That's on the top of brexit of course...

If anyone is interested on the constitutional implications of tomorrow in a technical sense I had a post on the UKCLA blog recently. Sorry for boasting but I wrote it because I want to bring it to people's attention.

Thanks, Cecile. Will have a gander.

Just saw Dominic Cummings mentioned on that blog. Had to post this. It is parliamentary committee with Andrey Tyrie where he takes him to heel about that fake nhs lookalike leaflet. Look at 11.25 in.

Morally bankrupt is the phrase that comes to my mind.

Oh just this one as well. No wonder things were down and dirty.

Would you believe anything out of their mouths?

Tactical voting link for local elections remain candidates:
www.facebook.com/LocalElectionsUKVoteRemain/

Another Scottish Referendum to look forward to.

EU citizens allowed to vote in local elections too.

The Times: May will pay price for Brexiteers’ promises

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/may-will-pay-price-for-brexiteers-promises-56x5rldl0

"You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose,” said Mario Cuomo, the former governor of New York.

"This is truer than ever over Brexit, for which the Leave side campaigned in haikus and must now deliver in legalese."

"Ministers compare the Brexit talks to a game of three-dimensional chess, played blindfolded and with so many players that it is impossible to keep track of every move.

Politically, however, the real fight will be at home.

The truth is that Mrs May faces a set of negotiations in this country that will be every bit as difficult as those she must have with the EU.

Already she is locked into a dangerous battle of wills with Nicola Sturgeon over Scottish independence, giving a hollow tone to her claim yesterday that Brexit would make a “more united Britain”.

There will also be consequences for Northern Ireland but the implications for the Union are only the start of the prime minister’s difficulties.

Even after their victory, the Conservative Eurosceptics still see every compromise with Brussels as treachery.

John Major:
“They may be allies of the prime minister;
the risk is that tomorrow they may not.”

Already some Tory MPs are calling for the UK to leave the EU without a deal and rely on World Trade Organisation rules.

Gerard Batten, Ukip’s Brexit spokesman, went one step further yesterday when he said that triggering Article 50 was a “trap” because entering into negotiations would take Britain “out of the dark EU forest into the EU quagmire”.

For the purists, pragmatism is not an option.

Until now the Tory leader has kept her hardliners on side by talking their language, promising, for example, that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

But as Ken Clarke points out,

they are like crocodiles swimming around the boat.
You can keep them at bay by feeding them buns but the problem comes when you run out of buns.

The moment Mrs May announces the details of a deal — assuming she gets one at all — she will have nothing left to throw into the Eurosceptics’ jaws.

She will no longer be able to send mixed messages, or boost her Brexiteer credentials by talking tough:

there will be actual proposals on the table and
if they do not satisfy the Tory rightwingers — and the tabloids — they will gobble her up.

We can await crunching noises as the angry Tory Brexit crocodiles eat up their PM.

Prettybird - I can't agree with you at all about how the Scots will feel about the UK gov. saying not before Brexit to an ind2. I think most of us are well aware that this whole thing is a big set up by the SNP. They gave the UK gov. an ultimatum that they knew they wouldn't agree with just so they could say - oh how dreadful the UK gov. is We want ind2 when we want it. Oh no how dreadful the UK gov. aren't letting us boo ho ho!!!
Why would the EU negotiators be bothered with this? They are negotiating with the UK gov. who are also our Government. As far as I know the Scottish Gov. has no powers over these negotiations so not relevant!

Heseltine: "What's happening tomorrow is what Margaret Thatcher was frightened of; losing control of our trade, the conditions in which our British companies trade and operate.
www.channel4.com/news/brexit-heseltine-v-hoey

Mrs T knew the crocodiles well.

I find it difficult to sympathise with Theresa May - right from the off, she has chosen to only listen to the extreme right wingers in her Cabinet - if as Clarke points out, they are like crocodiles, it will be entirely her own fault when they come to eat her.

One Downing Street source accuses the Brexiteers of “extraordinary complacency” in recent months. They have raised expectations that cannot be met and it’s the prime minister who will pay the price for that.

A more astute PM would have been able to handle that, it's her actions that have left her exposed. Haven't we been asking Brexiters for nine months what sort of Brexit they would like, to be told, 'suck it up losers' which didn't get us any further forward. I wonder who the Downing Street source is?

The Tories enjoy a good blood-letting, surely they must be due one about now? They haven't had one since Thatcher - they have been deprived by two Prime Ministers now, Major by losing an election and Cameron by throwing in the towel PDQ.

I know that you'll disagree Corcory I did say in my personal opinion

It'll be interesting to see what the EU thinks of WM negotiating/bartering the areas that are devolved to Scotland, eg fishing, agriculture, environmental protection.

It'll soon prove just how real "devolution" is

I can just see Barnier asking, "So what does Scotland/Wales/NI think about this ?"

WM answer, "No idea, we haven't actually asked them" but there again, WM doesn't seem to have a clue about much with regard to the negotiations, beyond a belief in everlasting cake and unicorns

Given that devolution came partly as a result of pressure from the EU (and ironically I was happy that the vote I wasn't "allowed" to make in 1979 counted as a No), I'm sure they'll be impressed to see the evidence of how little WM actually believes in it in practice.

They gave the UK gov. an ultimatum that they knew they wouldn't agree with just so they could say - oh how dreadful the UK gov. is We want ind2 when we want it. Oh no how dreadful the UK gov. aren't letting us boo ho ho!!!

But isn't that exactly what the Brexiters are saying about the EU? How dreadful the EU is - we want free trade and all the benefits, but we don't want to pay, we don't want freedom of movement and we don't want to be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. Boo hoo.

It's politics, and for my money, Sturgeon is a more astute politician than May.

I think it's about time May realised her job is to represent the whole of the UK including remainers. Not a few rabid brexiters.

She has been a donkey on this and looks desperate to keep power at the cost of her country. Let them take her down and themselves with her. There's nothing like a tory night of the long knives

She has just signed the letter. Still spouting hogwash about bringing the country together "We are one great union of people and nations with a proud history and a bright future."

So ignoring IndyRef2 which is now definitely on the cards.
Ignoring the loss of DUP supremacy in N Ireland, making reunification a distinct possibility.
Ignoring Gibraltar, which isn't part of the UK, anyway, and will have Spain pressing their case.....

We are four countries and an overseas territory, proud yes, but with very different histories. She really needs to get out of her Southern England bubble. It's a shame she went to Oxford - a spell at Manchester University would have given her a better perspective on how people live.

But please bring on the Tory night of the long knives. Will she be fighting away the tears as Thatcher, was? Even Cameron's lips puckered.

But dontcha know?......

Brexit will succeed because of "The strength and support of 65 million people willing us to make it happen". (Direct quote from TM's intro which of course she wrote and therefore believes every word to the Brexit White Paper.)

The Government can apparently read our minds and know that we are thinking, even though it's the opposite of what we think we are thinking

After the War suddenly everyone had been in the Resistance. How long will it be before no one admits to voting Leave?

There is one group of people who won't be able to rewrite their history so easily - Parliament, and a tricky record called Hansard. So we will have a record for posterity of known traitors.

I agree perigrina

I want a badge that says i voted remain

Or a sticker