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Brexit

Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 21/03/2017 11:43

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

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prettybird · 22/03/2017 18:47

Yes - secrecy needs both sides to agree to it, so if the EU wants to be open about its side of the negotiations and the status of them, there's nowt much TM and her stooges can do about it. Grin

LurkingHusband · 22/03/2017 18:58

Yes - secrecy needs both sides to agree to it, so if the EU wants to be open about its side of the negotiations and the status of them, there's nowt much TM and her stooges can do about it

as predicted yesterday ...

ElenaGreco123 · 22/03/2017 18:59

🌞

boredofbrexit · 22/03/2017 19:25

capx.co/3AHlw

BigChocFrenzy · 22/03/2017 19:34

Michel Barnier ✔@MichelBarnier
Guaranteeing rights of European citizens will be absolute priority from start of negotiations. Our watchword: citizens first! #brexit
4:38 PM - 22 Mar 2017

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BigChocFrenzy · 22/03/2017 19:46

FT: Over-optimistic ministers manipulate the Brexit debate

https://www.ft.com/content/35dc3b9a-0d4f-11e7-b030-768954394623

"What they lack in core competence they redress with tongues of purest silver.

Pressed for detail on his work by MPs last week, David Davis, the minister for exit, left them vaguer.

It hurts to inform you that diplomats find him well-briefed next to Liam Fox, whose trade portfolio is a phantom thing until Britain leaves the EU,

and Boris Johnson, who has not let his rise to foreign secretary disrupt his work as a jester"

"But then look at what these ministers have achieved as manipulators of public debate.

Over the past year, the terms on which Britain will leave have been talked down on such a fine gradient that even vigilant observers of politics are only semi-conscious of how far the country has been led.

As an opening pitch, voters were told that Britain could retain single-market membership without its corollary burdens.
Norway and Switzerland have tried for the same Utopia but our superior size would clinch it.

When Leavers were disabused of this dream, they spoke of “access” to the market and zero barriers for traded goods.
German exporters, blessed with supernatural lobbying powers that somehow failed to soften European sanctions on Russia, would persuade the EU of the mutual interest in such an arrangement.

When even this diminished plan ran into trouble, when it became clear that Britain’s desire for bilateral dealmaking power could not be accommodated inside the customs union, Leavers fell back on a formal trade relationship with the EU instead.
Britain would do business with Europe as Canada does, as if geography had been abolished and the access terms enjoyed by a nation 4,000km away would serve for a nation whose physical and economic orientation is to the continent."

"... now ministers are trying to normalise the idea of total exit without a trade pact.
Mr Johnson says this would not be “by any means as apocalyptic as some people like to pretend”

(roll up, roll up for a future that stops short of apocalypse) Grin

and Mr Davis describes it as “not harmful”.

".... from single market membership to a commodious niche in the customs union to a trade deal to absolute severance"

"The problem is not technical incompetence so much as a mystical belief that the EU will unpick its fundamental principles to accommodate Britain,
that the whole world will make exceptions for the nation of Shakespeare and the spinning jenny.

If these men were shocked that the EU turned out to be a tough interlocutor with interests of its own, imagine their first contact with the American industrial lobby or the Indian state."

"If we are now inured to the prospect of the very hardest of exits, that is some feat by Leavers.
There is an art to the gradual normalisation of previously extreme ideas.
In the hands of a good politician, you cannot tell you are being let down.
It is just that you would rather be in the hands of statesmen."

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whatwouldrondo · 22/03/2017 20:10

Bigchoc Exactly, sometimes you need someone to stand back and see it how it is.

Not Brexit but related

“I wanted to write about how you identify objective reality,” Mercurio says. “It has become a big subject because it’s infiltrated society, not just politics. You don’t have to go back very far to a time when someone in possession of the facts had great power. And someone would actually back out of a conversation if they didn’t have the facts or expertise. We’re now in this situation where you can actually talk as if stupidity is a virtue, in which all data is treated as having the same value. It’s something I’ve been interested in for a long time. I’ve been to lots of dinner parties where I’ve heard people say that homeopathy is equivalent to conventional medicine.”

Perhaps he needs to stop having so many meals with the Prince of Wales. “Ha! But I’ve experienced those horrible, awkward moments when you start to tell someone that what they are talking about is delusional and has nothing to do with objective reality, and then been made to feel like a pariah. So I have a lot of experience of how people are prepared to ignore objective reality, and use it for their own agenda.”

Indeed www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/mar/21/line-of-duty-jed-mercurio-police-drama-new-series-tv-creator

prettybird · 22/03/2017 20:35

I don't understand how so many people have been conned by the "access to the Single Market" obfuscation.

To use an example: A long time ago Dh used to be a member of Gleneagles Golf Club. Membership was expensive, but we considered it worth it for the pleasure it gave him and the fact that he could also invite business colleagues to play (iirc, he could but a guest ticket for a minimal fee). It also gave us reduced rates at the hotel so I could use the spa Smile. When our circumstances changed and we could no longer afford justify the annual fee, he gave up his membership Sad. He still has access to the club, IF he is prepared to pay the £195 course fee Hmm - so if he wants to go with a friend, that's £390 Shock. He can also pay slightly less if we choose to pay to spend a night at the hotel (but it is still as a guest, not as a member, so it doesn't contribute to his handicap). Alternatively he can go and join or play at other, cheaper golf clubs - but very few none is quite the same.

"Access to" is meaningless. Confused

lalalonglegs · 22/03/2017 20:52

I think your husband showed typical Remainer lack of ambition, pretty. He should have gone to the Gleneagles management and told them that they needed him much more than he needed them, demanded full access to the golf facilities for free and told them about the wonderful driving range behind the gasworks which he was eager to visit if they didn't want to come to some mutually beneficial arrangement. He should have implied that they were nazis if they didn't immediately comply Wink.

prettybird · 22/03/2017 21:03

Grin Lala

Indeed. He's just not thinking big enough. Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 22/03/2017 21:14

Times: Sterling’s collapse causes many EU workers to go

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/eu-migrants-quit-britain-over-weak-pound-ggbxcmmsm

"Some EU workers are returning home or seeking jobs elsewhere and the Bank [of England] has found that companies are struggling to recruit from abroad.

The findings, in the Bank’s monthly agents report, suggest that
sterling’s value could be the most decisive factor in bringing net migration closer to the government target of tens of thousands a year.

The report echoes the latest population data, which showed that annual net migration had fallen below 300,000 for the first time in two years, partly because Poles and other eastern Europeans had left the country.

Last week The Times reported that construction workers at the redevelopment of Battersea power station were quitting Britain because of the collapse in the pound."

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Mistigri · 22/03/2017 21:17

Jesus, what a day. I wonder if Saturday's march will be cancelled.

Have we discussed this? Richard North seems to have gone beyond despair to a sort of mildly amused disbelief. I actually LOLed at the bit about the difficulties of writing new software to deal with a customs code that doesn't exist yet.

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86399

Mistigri · 22/03/2017 21:18

sterling’s value could be the most decisive factor in bringing net migration closer to the government target of tens of thousands a year.

What Jonathan Portes was saying months ago, basically.

lalalonglegs · 22/03/2017 21:21

Parliament is sitting tomorrow and the message seems to be: business as usual. I think it would be difficult to cancel the march given that. There will be lots of extra (armed) police officers on patrol.

Peregrina · 22/03/2017 21:24

Michel Barnier has said today that the EU will *not be negotiating in secret and wants to keep its citizens fully informed.

In the normal course of events that would have had May spitting blood, but today has sadly been exceptional.

It needs to be 'business as usual' for everyone or otherwise the terrorists win.

GraceGrape · 22/03/2017 21:34

The organisers of the march have put out a statement to say that it will go ahead and there are contingency plans in case of a change of route. I imagine it will be a more sombre affair after today's awful events. Sadly, living in the shadow of terror is another thing that unites us with Europe.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/03/2017 21:36

Tories nearly 20% ahead !

Despite Nat Ins budget cockup and having done bugger-all Brexit planning.
This huge lead shows the catastrophic state of Labour under Corbyn
Back to the early 1980s and Labour meltdown at the next GE ?

ICM post-budget poll for the Guardian
CON 45%(+1)
LAB 26%(-2)
LDEM 9%(+1)
UKIP 10%(-1)
May must be tempted to go for a snap GE.
This would give her an enormous majority to weather a bad Brexit
(and avoid embarassing byelections in those dodgy 2015 seats)

Best team on the economy:
May & Hammond 44%
Corbyn & McDonnell 11%

< "It's the economy, Stupid" once again dominating voting choice ?
Or just that those (the majority) who consider Corbyn incompetent assume he would also be so wrt the exonomy ? >

Every party was seen as more dishonest than honest:
Conservatives were thought the least dishonest Hmm net score -7%
UKIP the most dishonest, net -30%

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Peregrina · 22/03/2017 21:40

May must be tempted to go for a snap GE.

I think she would have to go for it by Monday to get it to coincide with the Local Government elections, and I doubt whether even she, with her sheep like Tories and an enfeebled Labour could manage to get some legislation passed to enable that to happen. (Fingers crossed - I am hoping that she waits until the shit begins to hit the fan, and she receives a complete drubbing when she does go to the Country.)

Peregrina · 22/03/2017 21:46

Meanwhile, spare a thought for Gibraltar. Yes, you've guessed it, more problems than solutions at the moment.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/03/2017 21:47

She'll win as long as she's facing Corbyn - or his ilk / successor.

It took Labour about 12 years to detox after Foot - who was a reasonably competent leader without terrorist chums.

That was before the rightwing media had quite such power, before social media or Cambridge Analytica had been invented.

Brexit would have to be truly catastrophic - and I'm sorry, but I'd rather Tory govts than that - for Labour to win even in 2025.
More likely is 2030, imo

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Peregrina · 22/03/2017 21:50

Brexit would have to be truly catastrophic - and I'm sorry, but I'd rather Tory govts than that - for Labour to win even in 2025.

IMO with the way the Tory governments are going at present the two options are the same - i.e. both potentially catastrophic.

mathanxiety · 23/03/2017 05:10

BigChocFrenzy Wed 22-Mar-17 19:46:39
Great post.

What a terrible day. So sad for the victims and their families and friends. So many terrorist attacks featuring vehicles driven into crowds in the past while. Where I live, there are big concrete 'flowerpots' anchored to the ground at various plazas and parks, and traffic is usually far too congested to get any speed up to plough into pedestrians, but people really are vulnerable when on foot, because policing vehicles that look just like any other traffic is pretty impossible.

PattyPenguin · 23/03/2017 07:07

Civitas, carefully described by the Beeb as a "social policy think-tank", to which we can add the adjective "right-wing" as the Beeb used to do before it became so terrified of the Tory government, has produced a report telling us not to worry about leaving the single market.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39356664
Actual report here www.civitas.org.uk

I haven't read the report, I have to go to work, but two things I get from the BBC story. It talks of faster growth, which can mean a lot or very little depending on the baseline figures. Also, quoting Brazil hardly impresses - it's in its worst ever recession and serious economists consider its situation bleak (well, the meat scandal won't help one of its largest export sectors).

So if someone knowledgeable has time to read Civitas' report and tell me whether they're on glue, that would be great.

Peregrina · 23/03/2017 08:34

I haven't read the civitas report, but I am inclined to question what 'growth' means. At present, for example, we talk about having full employment, but at the same time we have record numbers on zero hours contracts, or in 'self-employment'. None of those to my mind are expressions of a fully employed economy - they are signs of a government fudging the figures.

whatwouldrondo · 23/03/2017 09:03

He is doing that old Leave con of comparing us to vastly different economies, and to our economy in the 70s. Richard North was disparaging about a previous paper, and he has not taken his criticisms on board. www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85905

"Sadly, the only thing this "research" makes "crystal clear" is the incompetence of its producer and the gullibility of those who are relying on it."