We don't have to pay a penny to the EU under Brexit!

[Olympiathequeen]

Latest news. There is no legal requirement to pay a penny and no court in the world that will enforce punitive 'divorce' penalties on us

We probably will pay something, but they can feck off with their 60 billion pounds.

I just hope it will curb some of the more rabid EU urges to 'punish' us for a democratic choice to no longer trade within rules that no longer suit us.

Here they come again;

"It's not speculation to say we are in a better bargaining position. It's fact"

What warped reality is that a "fact" in? We are in an appalling bargaining position. We can hope that the other 27 countries will give us a good deal, although they are under no obligation to do so (particularly if we are seen as reneging on what we owe).

As we then become more desperate for trade deals, we will have to accept whatever bone Trump deigns to throw our way, which will be TTIP on steroids, and we will be very lucky to keep the NHS and food standards out of it.

I can't understand all this "we are in a wonderland" nonsense that people like the OP come up with. It isn't based on any "facts" at all, unless we're talking Kellyann Conway's kind of "facts"...

Fruitbox I agree a lot of bad domestic policies are going through under the radar because of Brexit. However they are all follow throughs from the DC / GO 2015 manifesto and the coalition agenda and a lot of them had PLP support from Harman and Red Ed. Indeed many of the disability cuts and conditionality have their roots in TB's welfare to work strategy.

Where was all the righteous indignation prior to 23 June?

It's very far from speculation
The pound is already weak and inflation is rising. Lots of food prices and petrol up.
Companies are moving out.
It must be lovely to just have your head in the sand

There was a lot of opposition to things like the bedroom tax.

Furthermore, Nissan has said they would like the supply chains guaranteed. Where are Mrs May's plans for developing British Industry to the high standards required? I seem to have missed them. I have seen her running round the world, and coming back with nothing much. Remember, her visit to Trump only came back with the statement that she thought he was committed to NATO - not even a piece of paper as Neville Chamberlain managed.

Lots of worry where I live about Vauxhall too given that it has foreign owners.
Why should they continue to manufacture here?

The economic argument for unilateral free trade without bothering to negotiate FTAs for the UK - we are a net importer.

static1.squarespace.com/static/58a0b77fe58c624794f29287/t/58a57d943e00be70faaeaf97/1487240621083/UK-WTO-Trade-Strategy-Non-Cooperative-Continent-17-02-2017.pdf

"It's not speculation to say we are in a better bargaining position. It's fact"

Jesus Christ. Just...just...you STILL have absolutely no idea.

Nissan was heralded as showing how wonderful post-Brexit Engand and Wales Britain would be. Now even Nissan are saying that without being in the Customs Union they may not stay after all.

Brilliant Mrs May, brilliant...

Looks like TMs plan is working . But for some reason EUremoaners hate all this good news . I expect they will pick a different topic and try and ratchet up the hatred elsewhere now .

Hey, how about squealing for the 73 MEPs that will be sacked if we continue our decent into self flagellating madness ?

Repeat. It's a simple fact. It's not speculation. What the government decide to do with it is up to them, but it's one less stick for the eu negotiators to beat us with.

I love all the crystal balls telling us their speculation is fact. No one knows what the end result will be, but there will be some good bits and some bad bits. I personally feel we will emerge the same but different.

Companies are moving out and other companies are moving in. Only 1% of small businesses are planning to move to the EU. We could offer tax havens if we have to goes against my principles but needs must

I enjoy reading on here how all the negotiations have already been done and we are out of the EU clutching nothing but our return ticket home. We will have no access to the EU market, just like so many other countries who do have access but no free movement?

Birdy Of course I have no idea because I am can't grasp the simplest of arguments. So please explain. RTFT first please as I may have already demonstrated I can.

o'clock already!

Saying 'we are not legally obliged to pay' is on a par with saying 'we are not legally required to leave the EU following the non-binding referendum'.

In both cases, what matters rather more is the political imperative. It would be political suicide to damage long term trust in the UK 'brand' even further (if that's actually possible!?), by suggesting to our EU neighbours that we do not consider ourselves bound to pay our debts.

Who saw that Berlin 'brexit' carnival float last week which was a giant plaster of Paris sculpture of May's head pointing a gun into her own mouth?

We need to work on our public image, and this latest suggestion is plain stupid.

Sun's not over my yardarm yet, sadly

Well, we are not legally required to leave the eu following the referendum, hence the bill going through parliament. .

The point is (listen carefully) the EU £60 billion proposed bill (see articles from various eu leaders) is not a commitment on our part, it is an inflated sum with is open to interpretation.

So if I demand a huge payment from you which is not legally enforceable and which you dispute then a more realistic sum would be paid. That fact you can't threaten legal action makes both of us more reasonable and realistic. It doesn't mean you won't pay, as you accept you have financial obligations, just that I would be more willing to listen. Easy.

Me too Olympia... shame though. Some of these threads are enough to push anyone over the edge lol...

And maybe the gun is now pointing also at the EUs head too? Further posturing is not helpful to anyone.

If the 60 billion is not legally binding, of course the Uk doesn't have to pay.
So, if that genuinely is the case, it should reduce the cost of Brexit.

Hopefully, legal opinion would be unanimous, which would mean one less item to negotiate over.
However, if there is a difference of legal opinion - and expensive lawyers can always seem to find extra work ! - that could go to court, which would cause delay.

Don't get carried away about how much losing UK annual budget contributions means to the EU:
The net contribution is about 0.7% of UK GDP and quite a bit less than that % of Germany's.

The current EU net payers will divide the Uk's share between them. They aren't delighted, but it's hardly disastrous for them.

Similarly, about 44% of Uk exports go to E27 countries, whereas about 8% of E27 countries exports go to the UK.
The most effected E27 country would be Germany, but German business leaders have publicly said they want the EU neogotiators to keep to the "4 freedoms" because their business priority is a strong single market, not one weakened by special deals.

Failing to reach a trade deal would be worse for the UK, not just because damage to the EU is spread among 27 countries, but also because they have a large number of trade deals with other trading blocs.

In contrast, the UK would have no trade deals with anyone and it would take few years to negotiate them.
Even the WTO option is complicated, because all 190 or so WTO members have to agree to the UK's new schedules and some might disagree or block the UK until they get concessions.
very beneficial to both sides, but only if very clever negotiators can find

The best outcome is a transition arrangement like EEA / EFTA, so the Uk has a few years grace to plan properly for the longterm and negotiate trade deals with non-EU countries - including the US of course.

All countries have "access" to the EU for trade:
However, that access, even with trade deals, is different to that which EU / EEA members have - so there are arrangements like agreed maximum quotas, tariffs, following EU standards, adjudication by ECJ etc

Many countries now have more immigration by their citizens on their wishlist
It is reported that the EU will be able to move more quickly on its trade deal with India, because the Uk was blocking India's wish for more visas - the other EU countries don't have this as a red line.

Which is why I posted the unilateral free trade option paper for a contrasting view Bigchoc. Its starting premise is that because the UK is a net importer any relaxation of trade barriers, whether or not reciprocated, would be good for the UK economy.

Howabout It isn't "intransigence" for either side in a negotiation to stick to its red lines if they think the alternative is more damaging.

May's govt will probably fall if she gives in on FOM, so if she is thinking of party politics, she would prefer to walk away with no deal.

Similarly the EU may decide that giving up FOM, one of the "4 freedoms" on which the entire EU is based, would cause them more pain than gain.
Any of the 27 member countries could block a special deal - e.g. cake without FOM - if they think this would be against either their national interest, or against their vision for the EU's future.

The unilateral free trade you referenced is definitely an option, howabout
My concern about totally free trade is competing on equal terms with Indian & Chinese wages - more like £2 per day than the East European £2 per hour

That's why it is the preferred option of the hardcore Tory rightwing - it is their dream of a mosty low wage, low regulation UK with a few very high-earners and a very stripped down welfare state.
Great for the highly skilled mobile professionals (you and I, I think ? ) not so great for the other 90%

Not having to pay £60 billion makes it more likely May would go for the WTO option:

If the UK wishes any sort of trade deal, there would probably be an annual fee to claw it back over 10-20 years say, so that it becomes nearer the current annual payment.

So, politically she might find the clean WTO break easier to sell, then blame any adverse economic effects on the EU for not giving in to a special deal.

What about the banking sector which contributes hugely to our GDP
1 per cent lol
You are dreaming

So, politically she might find the clean WTO break easier to sell,

And she will be long gone, so won't have to clear up the mess. But will be able to hide behind 'it was the will of the people'.