Westministenders: Boris and God Knows what next. (I'm all out of ideas!)

[RedToothBrush]

Still a week until Stoke and Copeland. (Labour Hold/Con Gain unless something strange happens) QT is from Stoke next week.

A50 hits the Lords next week. Melania is being lined up to do something for the women. (God help us all).

Will UKIP survive? Will Nuttall survive? Will Labour survive? Will Trump survive? Will CNN survive? Will the Lords survive? Will Theresa May survive a class room of children?

All these questions and more

Simon Hix @simonjhix
3 views of UK parties' votes/vote shares since 1918. Thought you might be interested @chrishanretty @drjennings @philipjcowley @robfordmancs

Chris Hanretty ‏**@chrishanretty**

And the non voters have it...

The poll tax was not an accidental attempt to limit suffrage. It was to formalise those graphs,red

The drunken Cambridge student who gloatingly burned a £20 note in front of a homeless man belonged to the Conservative Association.
They have expelled him for this.

Strangely, at school he was a volunteer at a homeless shelter.
Does association with the heartless right change decent youngsters into cruel shits ?
Was volunteering just a sham for his CV ?
Did alcohol bringing out the ugly subconscious impulses that we may all have ?

Oxford go one better than their rivals:
The initiation ceremony for the Bullingdon Club allegedly involves burning £50 notes in front of homeless individuals.
That wonderful club that gave us Cameron and Bojo
That provided their empathy training.

Yes, it's interesting what the national polls are saying about the LDs versus what we are seeing in by-elections and what seems (to me at least) to make sense.

I wonder whether people answer that question, when asked, on the basis of what might be called "identification". People might 'feel' that they are inherently Labour or Conservative or whatever (and maybe they are). I also wonder the extent to which that will translate into votes - people might not feel that they are the image of a tofu-eating, lentil-weaving Liberal Democrat (I think that's the stereotype?) but might vote on the basis that they want to oppose Brexit and agree with LD policies, particularly if Brexit is seen to be financially damaging and/or pushing us towards the far right/Trump.

I also agree with potential for holes in methodology.

Of course, the polls could also be accurate ... we won't know for a while!

Until the party leaders, (excludingJC) have the courage to stand as a 'remain' coalition, of remain labour, lib dems, SNP, Plaid(?) SDLP etc, the electorate is having to vote blind on EU

We've had a poll without a manifesto, it's time to backtrack for the sitting politicians and stand again on a coalition remain manifesto.

Tories are amateurs - Fox & co must envy their GOP mates.
US Republicans are much less subtle about preventing the poor, especially the African American poor, from voting, like this:

• Difficult / expensive rules to get photo ID (GOP apologists ignore the fact that sacrificing a day's pay to travel to a govt office and wait hrs, then pay a fee, could mean a poor family misses meals that week)
• Gerrymandering of districts to concentrate the poor and African Americans into the minimum number of seats, so Republicans win more seats in the House of Representatives, even with fewer votes.
• Restrict polling stations in poorer areas - 3hrs queuing to vote
• Intimidation by visibly armed white Republican "observers", glaring at them throughout those hours

Even when the Democrats win, the Republicans sabotage them:

e.g. After the Democrats defeated the GOP to win the N Carolina governership, Republicans called a surprise special legistlative session and passed laws to strip powers stripping from the incoming Democrat governor:

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/16/north-carolina-strips-some-power-governor-roy-cooper

The Uk has long had far worse social inequality than other Western countries.
So much less opportunity for those born deprived, to succeed later in life
So many of our problems stem from this.

Contrary to popular belief and thanks to decades of neoliberalism / neocons, the US has become almost as bad.

Stripey, the 2010 LD voters were not lentil weavers.

Many were disaffected former Blairites. Many then went to the Tories in 2015. As a group they are not loyal voters who feel this identity issue with how they vote - they are far less tribal than other voters.

I don't think lentil weaving image is too much of an issue.

Where it comes into play is with people who have voted Labour or Conservative all their lives and then decide to switch. That comes down to whether the liberal label is more important that the socialist or conservative one. As UK politics becomes more authoritarian v liberal that importance changes. Trump will amplify the effect.

If Labour are not representing this, they are not understanding what questions are being asked by the public of themselves now. They should be going to that BBC seven classes thing and asking a few questions. There was a yougov poll this week which had them down as the third most popular party amongst CDE class voters.

Personally I think they might do themselves a favour if they started talking about there being a different class system in 2017 rather than being so hung up on the traditional working classes. Who have an average age of over 66. Labour are also terribly behind in support from the over 65.

They are the LABOUR party. As in the party of the workers. The people who do jobs. Yes the population is aging but that does not mean that older people would not support an agenda based on this, because of how it would support their children and grandchildren.

Stop making it about classes that were relevant 30 years ago. Reframe the agenda. Start making it relevant to today's society. Put the word LABOUR back into the heart of what they are. Labour can apply to various economic backgrounds. There actually isn't a real reason why it should confine itself to an outdated definition of class.

There really is room for a rebranding here imho.

I don't think the LDs are back at 2010 levels of support but they might do better than people expect because its concentrated in a smaller number of constituencies.

Membership is most certainly up on 2010 levels. With support coming from people new to political parties, old LibDems rejoining, Labour and Conservative.

Is that more LD support or people more politically active?

It's mostly more support, but some new members become politically active.

Yep
I voted lib dem in 2010 and will do so again in 2020

Even when the Democrats win, the Republicans sabotage them:
Didn't know this one, thanks, BCF
Tories are amateurs
But are catching up well, I don't remember queues of people unable to get into polling stations like in Sheffield and London in 2010 before, 'problems' with postal votes in referendum and voting rights of EU resident UK citizens.
Reducing the number of MPs and boundary changes look like they suit tories too. -

Some say that without the SDP, there would not have been 3 terms of Thatcher. This is the memory that will prevent many labour voters switching to lib dem, and supporting Blair now. Plus there are long memories about Bermondsey.
Personally, I think things are too serious to dwell on old wounds.

FPTP requires an effective opposition to be one large party, or at least a close alliance.
Yes, MrsT was helped to remain in power for over 10 years by the opposition in the 1980s being split between Labour and the Libs / SDP alliance

FPTP distorts voting habits & politics compared to say the German system of PR, where every party with more than 5% of the vote receives seats.
Then the parties negotiate a coalition

German voters are mostly happy with this system, because they like the social stability of consensus politics
a) it is worth voting for the party you really favour
b) the resulting government has broad support, over 50%

Yes, MrsT was helped to remain in power for over 10 years by the opposition in the 1980s being split between Labour and the Libs / SDP alliance

But then, what happened when Blair got in with his huge majorities? It can't just be explained by some Tories going over to the Lib Dems, although quite a number must have done.

Blair moved to the centre / centre-right and hoovered up voters there that Labour had never previously won.
In 1997, he kept the left and won over the centre and progressive conservatives who'd been turned off by the Tory right

With the rise of the snp and ukip in Scotland and labour heartlands I can't see labour ever winning a GE again
Yes 1992 was very similar to 2015 BUT labour then pulled its socks up, and got a decent leader.
Now?
Utter disarray

Blair didn't get me Bigchoc I would rather chew my arm off than vote for a party headed by that man. John Smith I could perhaps have seriously looked at, but nothing since has made me want to vote Labour (not that I have ever done that), or Lib Dem either.

John smith rip
The best PM we never had :(

Seriously...is that the issue now?
No one can see labour ever being in power again? Is that why people like kier starmer aren't stepping Up?
Scottish support collapsed
North east and Midlands going over to LDs and ukip.
Will labour splinter?

There are few circumstances, except for tactical voting, under which hardcore Labour and Tory voters would switch to another party.
However, despite the wishes of the hardcore / party activists, UK elections are won by appealing to the less committed voters in about 150 seats - the other 500 seats won't change hands unless there is a political earthquake.

Blair couldn't win hardcore conservatives (or alt-right), but he won enough of the progressive ones to win under FPTP - not 50% of votes, but it's 1931 since a govt achieved that.
His other great talent was to be convincing as a PM / potential PM in 97.

Corbyn can't appeal to a sufficiently wide pool of voters and the thought of him as PM is beyond ridiculous.

Would you agree that FPTP favours Tories?

There are few circumstances, except for tactical voting, under which hardcore Labour and Tory voters would switch to another party.

For me, Brexit is very much one of these circumstances, being the biggest constitutional issue we've faced for decades. If Labour can't provide an adequate opposite to TorKip, I'll put my money on the horse that is willing to oppose, even if it looks unlikely to win. I would be surprised if there aren't moderate Tory voters thinking the same way, ie. who are thinking, "If I wanted a UKIP government, I'd have voted UKIP."

www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/02/keith-ellison-democratic-national-committee-chair
Keith Ellison Is Everything Republicans Thought Obama Was. Maybe He's Just What Democrats Need

Guy being touted as the next leader of the Democrats.

He's black. He's also Muslim. A converted Muslim.