Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Don't think this has been posted yet (but I don't click through all links and on the phone it is difficult to scroll through to check)

It's a not very flattering view of "Theresa May's Empire of the Mind" in the NY Timws.

<a class="break-all" href="https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/opinion/theresa-mays-empire-of-the-mind.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0&referer=m.facebook.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/opinion/theresa-mays-empire-of-the-mind.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0&referer=m.facebook.com

Several posters had already worked out that Brexit will do bugger all to address fishing quotas but here it is spelt out in a leaked EU memo. Depressingly, for those who think we may have some wiggle room in negotiations, "The nature of future EU-UK relations in fisheries needs to be seen in relation to the UK’s ambition in keeping close ties with its European partners and the common market … Every agreement that guarantees UK access to the EU domestic market has to guarantee an access to the UK fishing grounds for the EU fleet." I think we will be hearing similar sentiments on virtually every area of UK-EU relationships in the next few years. Truly, this is the most pointless political exercise ever undertaken.

That NYT article is really good, pretty. This paragraph is spot on:

But no matter how confident the Brexiteers might be, their grip on reality remains patchy at best. Global Britain’s delusions are unlikely to withstand the shock of actually leaving the European Union. One indication of this came shortly after the referendum result, when it emerged that Marmite, an iconic British food, was actually owned by a Dutch company, Unilever. Its prices are set to go up after Britain leaves the European Union. Andrea Leadsom, the minister for the environment, food and rural affairs, has indicated that Britain’s post-Brexit trade strategy will be primarily based around the export of jam, biscuits and cheese. Britain, it seems, is in danger of becoming the world’s largest church fete.

I am less keen on these paragraph, although I fear they are equally accurate :
Still, Mrs. May will probably be able to carry the public with her. Her Brexit plans have generally polled well, and since taking office she has remained by far the most popular of all the major party leaders. Even if there is an economic collapse when Britain leaves the European Union — as most analysts think is likely — her mandate probably won’t be hurt: Already the right-wing press is lining up to lay the blame for the coming crisis on the bad attitude of “Remoaners,” as it has labeled the “liberal elitists” who remain pro-Europe even after the referendum result.

So what’s going to happen? These days, it feels like the worst-case scenario always prevails. If that happens this time, too, Brexit will mean that England, shorn of Scotland, Northern Ireland and maybe even Wales, contracts into a small, isolated, one-party state governed by schoolteacherly Conservatives who persist in wild-eyed delusions about their country’s special grandeur. In this desperate fantasy Britain, there are no jobs, and any dissent — from disseminating pro-foreigner propaganda to having a nonregulation haircut — will be punished by forced participation in the government’s “Clean for the Queen” program (which incidentally is a real initiative that was pioneered last year to encourage Her Majesty’s subjects to de-litter their neighborhoods in preparation for her birthday).

I agree with you that unfortunately, she probably will succeed in abdicating all responsibility for negative consequences on to the nasty Remain people (although I thought all 65 million people in the UK were behind her? ) and the nasty EU for not letting her have her cake and eat it

.....but you'll forgive me for thinking that "UK England, shorn of Scotland..." as a worst case scenario that might actually come to pass, is, to me at least, good news!

Refugees from Little England will be welcome! (EU citizens too )

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/frankfurt-mass-sexual-assault-refugees-fake-made-up-bild-germany-cologne-new-year-allegations-a7581291.html
Mass sexual assault in Frankfurt by refugees 'completely made up'

German newspaper stung by the story.

www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/this-enthusiastically-pro-brexit-labour-mp-is-now-at-war-wit?utm_term=.tczApjBvK#.snJDdMP2L
This Enthusiastically Pro-Brexit Labour MP Is Now At War With Her LocalParty

Vauxhall are trying to revolt.

Several members of her local party have expressed their disapproval of Hoey’s support for Brexit to BuzzFeed News, and all the individuals we spoke to said they felt she was likely to be deselected in 2018. The Liberal Democrats’ prospective parliamentary candidate told us he has been contacted “every week” by lifelong Labour voters who are now considering switching to the Liberal Democrats.

pretty - I'm pleased that I'll be welcome, I have been on RM stalking Scottish properties (in the nicer parts of Edinburgh, I am a southern ponce ) for months now. I actively pray for Scottish independence.

I know a few people in Vauxhall - it's the next-door constituency to mine - and they are spitting feathers about Kate Hoey who has been utterly insensitive to the Remainers she overwhelmingly represents. She has come across to them as quite goady about it.

I must get myself sorted out re getting a place in Scotland!

I think Scotland could make a go of it, if sufficient will to do so was there.

and that the Liberal Democrats “will find that the majority of people even if they voted Remain have accepted the result and just want to move on.”

I think Kate Hoey will find she is mistaken, but her opinion won't matter when she finds herself deselected. I wonder how she feels about today's news about fishing quotas?

Kate Hoey is already in her 70s. I think she is long past the stage of being bullied into behaving by the threat of deselection. I wonder how many more Brexit minded Labour and SNP MPs there would be if they all had the luxury of being able to disregard internal party politics?

I also think it is somewhat fanciful to be suggesting that the LibDems would increase their vote share from under 10% of the voters in Vauxhall to a winning position on the strength of Brexit. Makes for entertaining Buzzfeed column inches though.

Kate Hoey's constituency might well decide it's time for fresh blood. There is always a danger when they forget that they are holding an elective office and not holding it by divine right.

Lalalonglegs - there are also good areas in Glasgow (West End and especially Pollokshields , for example), where you will get even better value for money

Paul Waugh ‏*@paulwaugh*
Asked three times if she opposes downgrade of maternity at West Cumberland Hospital, Theresa May ducks the question.

Theresa May is in Copeland today.

Huff Post say its four times.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-copeland-by-election-airbrushing-nhs-crisis-nuclear-power-moorside-gywnne_uk_58a440bae4b094a129f0a953?
Theresa May Accused Of ‘Airbrushing’ NHS Crisis Out Of Copeland By-Election
Ducks the question FOUR times. No mention on leaflets either.

Labour have gone into meltdown on twitter about it.

Campaigners claim that the proposed changes to the constituency’s hospital will mean pregnant mothers and other patients being forced to travel 40 miles to the nearest specialist care units in Carlisle.

The Tories focusing instead on:
Nuclear power
Brexit
Rural broadband
Schools
Flood defences

There could be some pitfalls in there.

Nuclear power - Euroatom and Toshiba. Works well against Corbyn perhaps, but only to a point against him personally. The unions are working hard to capitalise on government weakness on the issue as a counter to that. There was talk of industrial action at one point. The Tories are not as strong on this issue as they would like to think they are.

Brexit - so far its not proving itself as THE issue at the polls in Leave areas. Will piss off some, and probably won't pick up as many votes as it looses (who are the reliable voters?).

Rural broadband - local issue I'm sure but ahead of the NHS in people's priorities?

Schools - not sure how new funding affects Copeland so can't comment.

Flood Defences - Next door lives a man named Tim. Tim made a big fuss about flooding last year, when his work colleagues weren't particularly bothered. He was critical about how slow government was about repairs to the local infrastructure. Its a strange issue to pick for the Tories.
The Tories have also recently been done for improper use of EU funds allocated to the area help with impact of flooding... Drawing attention to this issue, might not necessarily work to the Tories favour.

I've not heard favourable reviews of the Tory candidate. The Labour and LD ones have faired better. This is possibly an echo chamber effect I will admit.

Have we had this from Ian Dunt?

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/02/15/everything-you-need-to-know-about-article-50-in-five-minutes

More from Copeland.

The BMA are backing protests about plans to cut services and downgrade the Maternity Unit. 50 GPs have criticised the plans. The North West Ambulance Service Chief Executive said it was clinically unsafe though later said he had been reassured. It would mean some women would have to travel 40miles for consultant care. There has also been two petitions about it. One with 20,000 signatures another with 10,000. I'm not sure where the petition covers but its worth pointing out that 39,631 people voted in the constituency in 2015 and the Labour winner got less than 20,000 votes.

Feeling is definitely running high on this locally.

The Lib Dems have got stuck in on the flood stuff too
www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/Liberal-Democrats-leader-Tim-Farron-joins-Copeland-by-election-campaign-trail-f2fbc922-3063-4716-a2c8-cd8139fc3f6b-ds

The Whitehaven News also have one of those dodgy 'who will you vote for polls'. Its result is 22% Lab, 24% Tory, 35% LD and 7% UKIP. The poll really says that more LDs read the Whitehaven News than other party supporters. Perhaps it also suggests there is more LD support in Copeland than people are automatically assuming too though. I don't think the result of that polls puts the LDs anywhere near close to winning as it will be very self selective, but I think it does suggest they might have more local support than they are being given credit for too.

I'm from the east coast of Scotland, so not prettybird's area at all.

I know literally a handful of folk who support Independence - everyone else is anti.
Also, the notion that hordes of southern Remainers moving up expecting a warm Scottish welcomes is laughable - house prices have been pushed up enough by southern money - massive sore point for many from my home area.
That and the ingrained anti-English sentiment.

Remember the 78 year old woman arrested in Stoke for inciting racial hatred?

Turns out she's one of the candidates in Stoke - standing as an independent.

www.stokesentinel.co.uk/arrested-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election-candidate-i-ve-done-nothing-wrong/story-30136133-detail/story.html
Arrested Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election candidate: 'I've done nothing wrong'

Her website calls for all immigrants to be repatriated, warns of the 'seeping tide of Islamic warriors' and looks to 'take back control' of the UK for 'white nationals'.

She gets more bonkers though. She makes UKIP look moderate:

Ms Fielding has just sent 42,000 leaflets to addresses in Stoke-on-Trent Central. She is also arguing for the abolition of the Magna Carta, making the Queen the head of Government, reinstating workhouses and outlawing unions.

The police inquiry is ongoing.

She looks like such a lovely nice old lady too.

As a companion to Ian Dunt's piece, this post on WTO terms is worth a read. Note the conclusion:

On Brexit with no deal, not only would the UK not have any MRAs [Mutual Recognition Agreements] with the EU but it would also have exited the EU’s MRAs with countries like the USA and China. For none of these MRAs exist as part of the WTO rules to which the UK will supposedly revert. It is for this reason that the pro-Brexit economist Peter North of the Leave Alliance writess*:

“One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it.”

So when Theresa May says that no deal is better than a bad deal she is either willing to entertain such a disaster or it is simply a negotiating tactic. But if it is a negotiating tactic it is a strange one since it is to say: do as I want or I will shoot myself in the head.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/the-myth-of-wto-option.html?spref=tw&m=1

Yep. 3,000 or more Copeland Labour voters switching to LibDem will indeed lead to a Tory victory. Also not sure why LibDems are campaigning so hard in Stoke. Most likely outcome of switch to them there is a UKIP win. Cannot believe Sarah Olney could be interviewed with a straight face at the weekend after the criticism levelled at Labour for standing in Richmond.

Marie Le Conte ‏*@youngvulgarian*

Theresa May met some children today and it went GREAT.

Oh the caption competition potential!

This sounds like absolute chaos. There's no way May would walk away from the talks and allow that. It would be like Black Wednesday but ten times worse. ....... It seems unthinkable, but May does seem to be flirting with the possibility. She has said repeatedly that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'. This could be bluster designed to improve her negotiating position. Or she might really mean it. Many experts, including people who are usually very calm and restrained, are increasingly convinced she would do this.

My real worry with May is that she is just not a negotiator. Barking orders or opinions is what she does.

I had to laugh at the picture of May. The children were alert and happy, but May looked horrified. Contrast that with the Cameron picture where the little girl put her head down as if asleep.

I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. I am not thinking of Roald Dahl. Really. I am not.