Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

howabout I always prefer working in a firm that has a plan, rather than one that muddles through.
I have an expensive choc habit to support
Generally there is a major difference in efficiency of German / UK firms. I think Uk workers are pushed to work all hours to compensate for this, while Germans can stick to their relaxed 37.5 weekly

Boris Johnson, 2013:
“If we left the EU… we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by ‘Bwussels’, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure…

Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans?
That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU.”

(please lock the 3 Dunces in the loo, while the grownups talk)

Do they have any grownups?

I am afraid that we will need to wait ten years or more, until this sorry generation of politicians are history.

A poll by a professional polling organisation like YouGov, that is paid for by a newspaper, is fine.
Yes, any decent research org will make sure that clients don't try to bias the questionnaire with leading questions and are also bound to make sure that press releases and reports reflect the findings and not just what the client wants to hear.

Rule of thumb: if it is carried out by a reputable company that adheres to market research codes of conduct (e.g. Ipsos, TNS, YouGov and the other research agencies), you can have a bit of trust in it. A google poll of the papers' readers is just a customer survey.

Are you seriously mansplaining polls?

If there's one thing that Indyref, Brexit and Trump have shown is that all polls are unreliable including ones with good methodologies. Ultimately people don't necessarily vote the way they say they will, and small samples can never be accurate representations of the whole, no matter how scrupulously they are set up.

A poll of the readers of a newspaper is just a poll of the readers of that newspaper

That's exactly what it is. Surely that goes without saying. A snapshot of Mirror readers has its place, (partly just to compare with the other more rabidly Brexiteer tabloids), just as do the Telegraph online polls, and I also found the Sunderland Echo one QI.

ones that should say.

resipsaloquitursite.wordpress.com/2017/02/13/we-have-got-to-be-better-than-this/

AARGH !
Nigel someone started a petition to give Farage a knighthood:

"This man tirelessly campaigned for an independent United Kingdom for a quarter of a century, and thanks to his selflessness it has become a reality. For his effort, for his commitment to the United Kingdom, and for his loyalty to the people that stood by him - he is more than deserving of the title of Sir Nigel Farage."

< wipes vomit off iPad >
(I deliberately didn't link)

I'm hoping there's no petition to knight Agent Orange when he arrives to view his new vassals.

So they didn't see his speech to the European Parliament right after it happened then...

A transition period that is EEAA / EFTA without special snowflake rules, i.e. keeping FOM, would be achievable if the UK goes all out for it

I don't know. As an ex negotiator Lord Kerr commented that transitional deals are only generally feasible when you have know the permanent agreement. The interim deal covers the gap. So there's a question mark there.

Equally, while the EU may be inclined to grant it, would the Brexiteers have the sense to choose it?

Realistically, we could be on transitional terms for 5 - 10 years. The population may not accept a temporary deal of more than a couple of years. Beyond that the government will begin to look like they have failed to deliver on Brexit, or are secretly planning to stay. Brexiteers will fear being out of power before the permanent deal comes into effect - in which case it could be overturned.

While I think anyone with half a brain can see that an interim EFTA deal would be ideal if achievable, I don't trust the government to make sensible decisions.

A comments under the Irish Times article:
"It amazes me that we ever thought or ever think that the UK/ English are our friends. They have been and always will be our deadliest enemies. "

May should remember that the IRA has already found what forces the UK govt back to the negotiating table:

"When the Belfast Agreement was struck in 1998, the then unionist MP Robert McCartney said it was all about keeping bombs out of the City of London"

www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/ben-lowry-events-after-canary-wharf-show-that-the-ira-s-london-bombs-focused-minds-1-7213650

1992 Bomb Baltic exchange - £1 billion
1993 Bomb Bishopsgate - £350 million
1996 Bomb Docklands - £150 million

"incalculable harm to the capital’s reputation as a safe place to do business."

Try keeping a Post-Brexit financial centre in London, if Republicans resume blowing it up.

Trump participated in at least one Sinn Fein fundraiser with Gerry Adams.
So anyone's guess which side he'd support.

www.stokesentinel.co.uk/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election-arrest-woman-78-accused-of-stirring-up-racial-hatred/story-30132955-detail/story.html
Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election arrest: Woman, 78, accused of stirring up racial hatred

Gloria A transition agreement for a smoother Brexit is doable
BUT I totally agree, the govt may be too stupid / cowardly to go for it.
They need to decide the end form of Brexit - and do so in time to negotiate a suitable transition deal.

May should remember that the IRA has already found what forces the UK govt back to the negotiating table:

Absolutely, and she should also remember that Brexiteers are not the only ones who can stoke up resentment and nationalism to achieve political ends.

They need to decide the end form of Brexit - and do so in time to negotiate a suitable transition deal.

I'm increasingly beginning to think that the negotiations will extend beyond two years.

They need to decide the end form of Brexit - and do so in time to negotiate a suitable transition deal

And that's the challenge, because the implication of Kerr's view is that is that both sides would have to know their detailed positions on a permanent deal within the two years, so that they can also negotiate the transitional deal to start as soon as we leave.

He may be wrong of course, and both sides are content to agree an EFTA deal while negotiating the long term position.

I hope it's achievable and the government have the sense to go for it but in Brexit-Trumpland anything's possible.

The Sentinel didn't say what material the 78you woman (!) was distributing; I wonder if it was the cartoon senior Kippers were rofling at on Twitter last night .

Wow at the Stoke news

The ex-Chairman of Scottish UKIP convicted for sex calls.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-38957390

To Scotland's eternal shame, we do have one elected UKIP official: the execrable David Coburn, MEP

Michael Flynn, Trump's national security adviser, has resigned over his conversations with the Russian ambassador.

How ironic would it be if the City were to be scuppered in the end not by the Provos but by a Tory majority government.

Wrt the rest of UK, that would just need to be accepted & sucked up obviously, but the problem would be NI citizens (as part of UK) not being allowed to move freely back & forth to ROI - this is entirely within the gift of the EU to offer.
I very much doubt that Brussels is the capital that will be bombed for purposes of persuasion on this point all the same.

Maybe May is a Marxist Leninist like her boyfriend Bannon
That would explain her 'radical' or misjudged dress sense and her desire to destroy British capitalism.

The dignity with which Sinn Fein and Irish Gov have responded to the idiotic machinations on the mainland should be praised. Comrade May should count her lucky stars for their intelligence and pragmatism, thus far. At least NI values peace, even if it's regarded as collateral on the mainland.

Wrt the rest of UK, that would just need to be accepted & sucked up obviously, but the problem would be NI citizens (as part of UK) not being allowed to move freely back & forth to ROI - this is entirely within the gift of the EU to offer.

Relatively fluid movement of people between NI and the ROI can probably be achieved, but a hard border for goods is a dead certainty if NI leaves the customs union, because this will be the EU's external border and both EU law and GATT (the body of law that controls trade under the WTO) will require customs procedures to be enforced. This will trash the NI economy (and won't do any favours to ROI either).

It's a mistake to focus on movement of people in Ireland's case.

It's a mistake to focus on movement of people in Ireland's case
Not to mention the fact that FOM has been a massive positive in the case of NI, which doesn't fit with the 'FOM is the root of all evil' argument.

How would you handle that on a practical POV though?

Atm there is no border control between ireland and other eu states. Allowing movement between ROI and NI would also mean allowing people from NI to be able to go in Europe wo controls.

There is of course the possibility to move the frontier between NI (i.e. The UK) to Ireland. Which would mean moving the problem and the responsibility onto IReland shoulders.

I can see how this would be good for NI and probably Ireland too.
I do have a massive issue with the fact that the responsibility of dealing with it wouldn't be the UK responsibility TBH.