Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Having lived near Stoke at one time, I can't say that I ever found the people particularly racist. Certainly not in the way that you got further south in the West Midlands.

you probably know about voting preferences and habits more than me but could it be largely that people had already made their minds up so voted via post and there'll be a drop in poling day votes? Having said that I normally know how or who I'll vote for and prefer to leave until polling day anyway so I wouldn't fit that anyway.

My understanding of voting habits is Conservatives are most likely to be postal voters generally as its older voters that are most likely to vote via postal vote. But LDs are often well represented by postals. Its linked to political engagement as a rule too - as it requires more organising to get one.

I am unsure of the implications here but its noteworthy. To my mind that suggests a higher turnout than I was expecting (which might back up UKIP's claim of a 33% turnout). If on the night there are reports of a lower turnout, then really odd things have happened.

The only thing I am certain of now with Stoke, is that I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen, as I don't think anyone would have forseen a higher postal turnout to 2015 in a by-election.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32480623
UKIP sure as hell don't like them though. Their 2015 manifesto wanted them restricted...

RTB I think the 6,000 postal votes quoted in the article is an approximation of the 5,850 issued at the GE.

Struggling to follow the logic of the article. I think it quite likely, without knowing Stoke, that the operation to get the Leave vote out will spill over to mobilise the UKIP vote, especially since the Conservatives are not actively contesting. I also think it misses the fact that a large percentage of any Lib / Dem bounce will come from Labour. The third negative factor for Labour is that it is very difficult to discern a positive message to vote Labour whether you are Leave or Remain atm.

I have no political analysis to offer on Stoke, but I have a very bad feeling about it. Chasing the UKIP-lite vote cannot be a good strategy for Labour.

I note that Arron Banks is producing a lot of anti-Labour tweets at the moment, and several defending the racist cartoon. Paul Nuttall may be an idiot and blatant liar, but I'm guessing he is getting a lot of help.

If it's true about Labour producing anti-UKIP leaflets but using the UKIP colours, do they know nothing about branding?

All they'd have succeeded in doing is to reinforce UKIP in people's minds and bring them to the forefront as a viable option when in the polling booth (or when completing their postal vote)

Completely off topic, but Trudeau holding his own against the Trump power/jerk handshake is childishly amusing

ABC Twitter

howabout, I thought it might have been an approximation of previous elections but its the way its phrased 'I am reliably informed'. He's a journalist. Why didn't he just go to the electoral commission's data and check!?

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/our-work/our-research/electoral-data

Its not hard to find and it gives break down of the number of postal votes.

If you are doing an article on postal votes, that would be my first port of call, rather than saying 'I am reliably informed'.

It could be a lazy journalist. That's what I'm trying to work out really.

Have anyone posted the online Mirror poll of 44,000 people - 51% of which would now vote Remain.

Have has

prettybird, that tactic went wrong in Sunderland council by-election recently. The suggestion was that voters took exception to Labour leaflets that looked like LD ones and it encouraged them to vote for the LD rather than Labour as it made them look as if there was a real chance the LDs could win.

That's why those leaflets in Stoke bother me. On the list of things not to do, it scores pretty high.

RTB the cynic in me presumes because it wouldn't suit his narrative.

WRT Immigration, isn't that just part of the whole toxic debate where people have had enough of experts and the facts are irrelevant? I don't remember now where I read it but some big employers were saying the other day that is a myth that jobs go to 'foreigners ' and English job seekers are being passed over. In the same vein: the UK has near full employment and about 3 million European workers. Take those out of the job market and what do you get? Chaos.
The bad thing I can see is that the only people addressing this are the Corbynites, but since they have the efficiency of turnips that message does not get our of the echo chamber. TM and Murdoch and the Tories and even Milliband (remember the mugs? ) have fully signed on the idea that immigration is a problem. An idea. Just like it was a feeling that sovereignty was at risk through Europe. it's all about the feelz.

On the list of extremely dumb things to do, it scores off the scale!

Gloria I don't think they have. I haven't linked to it, because I think it as problematic as any dubious poll from the Mail and Express. There is some pretty flawed methodology going on with it - not least it was conducted primarily in large cities and few provisional towns. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Just watching the Channel 5 News. IMHO, anyone who starts a sentence, "I'm not racist but I'm voting " means that they are using racist thinking in their decision but don't want to admit it even to themselves

howabout, the cynic in me perhaps doesn't disagree with you on that. I thought the article questionable due to the figures. Hence asking.

"I am reliably informed" is journalist code for "Someone mentioned and I didn't bother to check." Take it from one who knows .

I think all polls are problematic and unreliable. Some polls are more reliable than others and I'd say tabloid polls are the least reliable of all. But that doesn't mean they are not worth a look. And it depends what you mean - DM reader polls are probably quite representative of what their readers think - or what they think they think.

The poll I'm referrring to was online not carried out in cities - which has its own issues due to repeat votes.

13.5% of people who voted out said they would now vote in if there were a second referendum. Whereas 9.3% would vote out who voted in. 51% said they didn't want another referendum.

Broken down by area - in Birkenhead 23.1% who voted out would now voted to remain, in Stockton-on-Tees 22.5% would switch to remain and in Camborne, Cornwall, 24.4%.

54.7% said they expected the UK to break up within 10 years due to Brexit.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/britains-brexit-regret-survey-shows-9805513

I would feel with Stoke that they feel very much detached from what is happening in Westminster. When I lived in the region, it was a bit of an event to go down to London.

The pottery industry was having periods of short time working in the early seventies, with firms starting to close down. Before we went into the EEC, so the problems can't be laid at that particular door.

The problem with surveys is that people (and journalists) don't know enough to know when it is reliable or not.

A poll of 44,000 Mirror readers is just that. It has no relevance for the rest of the population. It only gives an indication of what online Mirror readers think. A quick glance at the methodology shows that it is only 35% female. A representative poll of 1,000 people reflecting the age, gender, social class would be a lot more reliable.

Rule of thumb: if it is carried out by a reputable company that adheres to market research codes of conduct (e.g. Ipsos, TNS, YouGov and the other research agencies), you can have a bit of trust in it. A google poll of the papers' readers is just a customer survey.

tiggy I'm living & working in Germany
The consensus I hear is that a smooth Brexit is in everyone's interests, provided this can be achieved without breaking the rules, i.e. the 4 pillars

There is still stunned disbelief that UK politicians had no Brexit plan - "muddling through" is a British tradition, not a German one.

For Germany business, the worst case scenario is that the Uk falls over a cliff and - apart from friendly concern - Germany can't sell much to a country that's in chaos, or in trade limbo.
Also, the EU as a whole don't want another big unstable neighbour with a powerful military & with nuclear weapons - Russia is quite enough of a worry.

A transition period that is EEAA / EFTA without special snowflake rules, i.e. keeping FOM, would be achievable if the UK goes all out for it.
Probably be able to retain financial passporting with some good negotiating (please lock the 3 Dunces in the loo, while the grownups talk)

A poll by a professional polling organisation like YouGov, that is paid for by a newspaper, is fine.
A poll of the readers of a newspaper is just a poll of the readers of that newspaper

Too tempting Bigchoc. From a UK perspective, the problem is that the Germans always have a plan and are completely inflexible about adapting it to changing circumstances.

John McDonnell took a break from internal party plotting, to warn that May's Brexit isn't what most Leavers voted for:

"Now chancellor Phillip Hammond has hinted that he is prepared to turn the whole country into a tax haven, slashing corporation taxes to rock-bottom levels.
On top of the existing tax cuts for the elite, that could mean a £120bn total giveaway by 2022 – more than the NHS spends in a year.

We couldn’t run a national health service worthy of the name in the bargain basement Britain the Tories are lining up.

A majority people voted to Leave, and Labour respects that decision. But after the Leave campaign claimed that leaving the EU would mean more money for the NHS, not less,
Phillip Hammond’s corporate smash-and-grab raid is surely not what anyone voted for."

labourlist.org/2017/01/john-mcdonnell-we-could-not-run-an-nhs-worthy-of-the-name-under-the-tories-bargain-basement-britain/

His figures are on the alarmist side, but continuing nhs cuts look more likely than the 350 million TimeToBackout expects
Well, they could cut the 120 billion and then restore 18 billion - maybe Cambridge Analytica can work their dark psychometric art again on voters.