Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

[HashiAsLarry]

Not just TM though. Most of the MPs voted remain. Maybe they should all go

[TheFullMrexit]

Who would you like to replace TM?

[TheFullMrexit]

The fact many voted remain does show a huge disconnect between mps and the people they represent. I hope in future we can work towards mps who understand the problems and issues of their voters.

[Kaija]

It's not the first time there has been an attempt by the Tory right to get Bercow out. Does anyone know if the same people are involved this time?

[Peregrina]

Replace TM? We have been asked that before and the answer is the same: Ken Clarke.

The fact that 80 Tories represent Remain constituencies but are now supporting Leave also shows that they are out of touch with their electorate.
The probably always were, only waking up a couple of months before a GE.

[borntobequiet]

Like the sensible plan, Misti. Ireland though a special problem...remaining in CU by hook or by crook might mitigate that?

[TheFullMrexit]

I am not tory I am not swing voter who has voted labour and lib dem far more than voted tory. I look at them all as one large mass rather than viewing through prism of tribal politics. Why on earth however would you want an ardent rabid pro remain at the helm of brexit?? What a peculiar choice. How on earth would he be able to win an single thing on brexit?

[TheFullMrexit]

I am that should be I am swinger

[Bearbehind]

Interesting link by the Leaver who is concerned about the trade process misti

You've no chance getting any Leavers on here to comment on it though.

[BigChocFrenzy]

"Bercow told a group of students he voted Remain in last year’s EU referendum, adding that

he hoped EU rules on parental leave, working time regulations and equality laws would continue after Brexit."

"MPs said Mr Bercow’s position was now ^untenable,
because the Commons will spend the next year debating which EU laws to keep after Brexit."^

It sounds likely that those particular MPs hope to repeal those laws, as part of a low regulation UK post-Brexit

[Peregrina]

I think Ken Clarke would put the good of the Country first. Time after time MPs said, they didn't think leaving the EU was good for the country, but 'had to obey the will of the people'. Normally, they don't bother too much about that.

[HashiAsLarry]

At this point I think I'd settle for someone who understood that 17m leave voters doesn't mean 65m are behind brexit.

Or someone who remembers that those who didn't vote or voted remain are people too.

Shouldn't be that hard.

[Lico]

Place marking.
Bought a few French newspapers in Wednesday this week.
I noticed that Marine Le Pen was hardly talked about in those newspapers (Le Monde, Figaro, libération). However, in the UK, she was interviewed by a radio station.

[TheFullMrexit]

The good of the country first, but how could he do that when his passions are to remain??

[CeciledeVolanges]

Yes, I thought the government's position was that "workers' rights" would be protected? Although I'm sure David Davis or someone similar actually said later that they meant rights enshrined in contracts, which the government can't change, all along :(

[TheFullMrexit]

Frank field said the government needs to go on a war footing as in it needs to pull together now like in the war to get us through this process safely. I fully agree with this. It's all done and dusted and trying to delay things, hold things up will only damage our position by making us look weak. Every one needs to put party politics aside and concentrate on what's best for the UK, get goals and go for them. Tom Watson said labour would be watching tm like hawks at every step. Tom should be saying, labour will be working alongside the tories to get the best deal out of the eu, whom we will be watching like hawks.

[TheElementsSong]

on a war footing

[RedToothBrush]

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4215692/David-Davis-s-sexist-texts-Diane-Abbot-clash.html
Give Diane Abbott a hug? I'm not blind! Brexit Minister's sexist texts about Shadow Home Secretary after Commons clash

m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58a0262fe4b094a129ebaa98?
David Davis Branded A ‘Vile, Sexist Man’ Following ‘Sexist’ Text Exchange About Diane Abbott Brexit Kiss

It looks like David Davis is putting in a bid for being on the MPPIG list.

This story was about last week and it's bad enough. The phone messages he sent after seem to make it all a lot worse. It's sent my new hero Jess Philips into melt down.

I do have a few s at the back of my mind with this story though. Which 'mate' betrayed Davis and leaked this to the press? Why?

Also this is the second story this week where phone messages amongst MPs has surfaced. There was also the story that 59 hard line Brexiteers were coordinating via WhatsApp targeting certain remain voices (Bercow is next in the hit list) and they get everything they want.

Also worth reading is this with large contribution from Lisa Mandy. With a LOT of rumours that aren't going away about a fresh Labour leader challenge/change Mandy does look to be positioning herself.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/12/brexit-labour-identity-crisis-solution-return-to-roots?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Labour in crisis: Can the party reconnect with its heartland?

The rumour is that Labour are doing polling to find out who would do well as next Labour leader. Ian Warren from Election Data did some focus groups in the autumn of last year with ukip/labour waverers. The woman's group were looking for a strong northern woman as a leader. I have to say in this political climate it might be a good move and several of the names being circulated by the press fit the bill. Women are being particularly turned off from politics at the moment and have a lower intention to vote. There are definitely votes to be picked up here, though where that leaves white working class 50 year old men, I'm not sure.

I feel that these two approaches are going to be how politics splits and forms over the next few months and possibly years.

[RedToothBrush]

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-commonwealth-immigration-visas-tory-mp-fast-track-plan-a7575221.html

Dozens of Tory MPs back plan to give fast-track visas to 52 Commonwealth countries

The 45 MPs have written to the Home Secretary calling for closer ties with the Commonwealth

WhatsApp has been busy.

[HashiAsLarry]

Let's send some people over to the Brussels to find some WMDs. That ought to sort it.

[BigChocFrenzy]

The horrendous complexities of leaving the EEA were not properly explained during the referendum campaign, because noone would believe "Project Fear" and of course we were only leaving the EU, nothing else - until suddenly we were told the vote was for Hard Brexit.

Leavers who discuss trade at all just focus on tariffs whose costs I agree would be mostly be compensated for by the devalued pound.

It has always been the non-tariff barriers that have worried me, because they are always the most complicated part of a new trade agreement and the main reason why they take 7-10 years
(that's typical for all trade agreements, not just those involving the EU)

Without a trade agreement, the bureaucracy of checking compliance - with standards of health, environment / recycling, electrical safety, certificate of origin etc- for all goods & their components slows the process at both ends, both the exporter preparing all their certificates and the importer allocating trained staff and facilities / parking for inspection.

It would be against WTO rules for the EU or the UK to treat each others goods differently to those of any other country
by just waving each others goods through without checks as now.
Even if the UK is prepared to do this for all 195 countries, the EU certainly won't - or they'd stop being a trade bloc.

[Eeeeeowwwfftz]

Thanks for the Booker / North links. Is there a succinct summary anywhere of their motivations for voting Leave to begin with?

[CeciledeVolanges]

I think that is exactly what the Government wants, FullM. What happens in a war? The government gets a lot of power. Dissent is silenced, the courts tend to fall into line, everyone gets very relaxed about human rights and the democratic process. Caesar seized power in a war situation because the Roman constitution had provision for that. Then he wouldn't let go of the title "dictator" which was designed for war situations.

[BigChocFrenzy]

"Pulling together" is no substitute for understanding what you are bloody doing !

Singing Rule Britannia won't unblock the ports.
That needs a plan
Not Baldrick's cunning plan.

My objections would have ended a couple months after the ref result if I had any confidence that May and her 3 Dunces understood what Hard Brexit meant - they seem to have only focused on ending the FOM and gone lalala about the consequences of leaving the EEA.

[RedToothBrush]

Labour's election leaflets in Stoke are in ukip colours and accuse ukip of lying. Negative campaigning in this way is generally very ineffective. It tends to turn voters off completely rather than motivate them to turn out. It could also have the perverse effect of incentivising ukip voters to come out. They could get the same message out in a different way. The one they have picked is potentially disastrous.

The agenda is being led by UKIP. What is Labour doing. How are they better? What will they do that will benefit people who vote for them apart from not being Paul Nuttall?