Westministenders. Whilst Boris makes more daft promises, a50 hits the courts. Poo and Fan Time.

[RedToothBrush]

There is no plan. Or is there?

We’ve talked on the last thread about how it’s being set up as ‘Hard Brexit’ or ‘Unilateral Continuity’ (dubbed here as the ‘Off The Top Of The Cliff Plan’) by the hard line Brexiteers either as the plan or the means by which to force a softer deal with the EU (which perhaps seems to be preferred choice of Mrs May herself).

The last few weeks have been plagued by comments by various members of the Cabinet over what Brexit means – comments which are frankly bollocks and show an outstanding world class level of ignorance – and have led to us being laughed at (Verhofstadt head of EU negotiations), facing outright anger and demands for compensation (Japan) and pure bewilderment (USA unless your name is Donald).

And they have been repeated contradicted and undermined by May in response with, the response that this is not government policy and she will not be giving a running commentary.

Thus making the UK look like the world’s leading political basket case whilst at the same time being ‘an excellent place to make new investment in’. Obviously. As long as you prattle the words ‘Free Trade’ a lot a bright new world of opportunity will open up. Just look at the Japanese position on that.

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But really the reason why ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is still so vague, could be a legal one.

The next step in the Battle for Brexit, is in the courts and over whether the Royal Prerogative can be used to trigger a50 or whether May will have to first pass it through Parliament before she can notify the EU that we are leaving. This may prove to be a big hurdle for the government and one they have a real chance of losing particular the NI case.

The two big a50 challenges (though there are others) come from a cross party NI challenge supported by the NI Attorney General in Belfast and a crowdfunded ‘People’s challenge’ in the English courts. The NI challenge is characterised by a loss of rights and the international agreement that is the Good Friday Agreement, whilst the English challenge includes this as well as other acquired rights and concerns over the devolved assemblies and the Act of Union.

The government’s defence to this, which they sought a bizarre court order to protect and keep secret which was later overturned, is that ministers have better expertise to implement the start of Brexit than the courts (see Johnson, Fox and Davies), that it does not fall under parliament’s jurisdiction and that whilst the Royal Prerogative can’t be used to remove rights, because ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is so vague it’s impossible to challenge use of the Royal Prerogative because we don’t know precisely which rights will be affected!

The case for the government is also being presented by a relatively inexperienced lawyer.

However, some very respected constitutional law academics think the core of the government’s argument is sound, though this might be lost in the ridiculous other defences, the government have put along it. Their lead of the defence is a lawyer, who has little public law experience too.
The government need to win both these big cases, to ensure that they can use the Royal Prerogative. Don’t forget the likelihood of appeals regardless of the first ruling too.

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Into the political void the Irish PM has stepped in to led discussions into the future of the island, the Japanese have issued a Brexit ‘wish list, the Spanish have staked a claim to co-sovereignty of Gibraltar (something rejected overwhelming in a referendum in 2002) and threatened to block negotiations otherwise, a French Presidential hopeless has kindly offered us another referendum, the USA have reiterated that they won’t do a deal with us until our WTO status is in good order and the Italians have said ‘No chance!’. This is the UK taking back control folks.

At home Ken Clarke has said that May needs to get her act together, George Osborne has said Brexit did not mean hard Brexit and Dominic Grieve has urged her not to sleepwalk into a hard Brexit. The Tory conference looks set for all out Tory War.

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In a side issue the pro-Brexit newspaper, The Sun has come out in an editorial telling the Government to have the courage to pull the plug on the child sex abuse inquiry which was set up by Theresa May when she was Home Secretary, calling it a ‘farce’ and saying its scope was too wide and unmanageable… It might seem unrelated, but it calls May’s judgment and handling of large issues into question. If she allows it to plow on, it could turn into an even bigger farce and embarrassment, yet if she U-Turns it could make her look weak and have the potential to do the same over Brexit. She’ll struggle to throw Amber Rudd under the bus over the matter, because most of this happened on her watch. This will come back to haunt May. It also starts to question Murdoch’s position and opinion of May. Is this a withdrawal of support for her?

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In summary, the next six to eight weeks are crucial to what Brexit looks like. It’s time for the shit to start hitting the fan. Brace yourselves for next couple of weeks. Get stocked up on the gin

We are not being led by UK politics anymore nor even internal squabbles really but the courts and outside forces which are shaping what is possible and achievable rather than what we want.

All talk is of a hard Brexit. It might well prove to be the case yet. We aren’t there yet though. There could be some more twists and turns yet.

An article 50 defeat in the courts for the government throws it back to Parliamentary scrutiny, taking up time and potentially watering down demands. It could even produce the result that a50 is deemed not fit for purpose and we have to go back to the EU begging for a new treaty for a way out (which technically they would have to do as they legally have to recognise democratic votes). This might be our only way to prevent a chaotic exit from the EU. This might led not to an exit though, but a two tier EU – a proposal suggested by, errrr Guy Verhofstadt, Head of EU Negotiations – and is very unlikely to prove to be the quick exit by 2020 that Kippers so desperately want. And a second referendum on the deal reached, in order to prove it was the will of the people. It could also prove a threat to the current government and raise the realistic spectre of a rebellion and a vote of no confidence and in turn a General Election.

Of course the EU themselves have a couple of their own headaches at the polls to survive too, whilst the German banks start to get the jitters. And there is the small matter of America having their own Brain Fart in the coming months, which could have a big impact on what happens next.

Yep, this is taking back control folks. What do you mean it feels more like a game of roulette? So might even say Russian roulette.

Me2017, I don't agree. Yes there are many tolerant people in the UK, but the loony Right fringe feels legitimised to act by the ref result and what's coming out of Tory mouths. Folks on the extreme fringes seem to move further and faster than those in the centre.

People (from the EU) who I work with have been abused on the street. Maybe the 'small stuff' doesn't get publicity, but doesn't the 'big stuff' worry you?
It's the tip of the iceberg.

I am a racial minority where I live (most mixed borough of London almost) so most people are from all over the world here. People genuinely live in harmony in much of the country whatever the colour of the skin or nationality of their neighbours. Yes there has been some increase in incidents but don't always believe all you read in the press. People are wanting to read about this stuff - it becomes self perpetuating so it's very important to read that most of us are more than happy to live in harmony with our neighbours from all countries.

We certainly should not be complacent however. I never let a single racist comment go ever even from the mouth of a taxi driver (or sexist comment for that matter which is just as bad). It we tolerate we are as bad as those engaging in the incidents concerned. Never stay silent.

It was the act of a mad deranged individual who does not represent the views of the British people

As it seems are many terrorists, however, you only really get to be a mad loner if you are white and not a 'foreigner'.

There is plenty of racism in the UK. We are only 'tolerant' when we stand up to intolerance. There is nothing particularly magical about being British in 2016 as opposed to German a few decades earlier.

Fraser Nelson (spectator editor) is enthusiastic about the conference appealing to middle England and party members. Theresa May is speaking to her people at Tory Conference (age, interests, background).

I was thinking about this last night. For all the talk about working class people it wasn't pitched at the working class. It was squarely to the middle class (though I temper that with saying particular the middle class that were working class and worked their way up often through grammar schools). There was nothing in it that really was directly to the working class. If they like what she said so much the better.

I also saw Arron Banks (resplendent in a tuxedo and bow tie) on channel 4 news last night talking about yesterday's incident. It was interesting. Back in June he had talked about going after the Conservatives and Labour - particularly if they voiced pro-Remain views. Last night when questioned he ONLY talked about going after Labour. This is a shift. He made a notable hesitation when asked about whether he was going to continue to donate after the incident. However he said he was going to continue as he thinks UKIP still has ground to make and a job to do.

May's tactic to shift into UKIP land is tactical but it carries risks. The gamble is that they can pick up the percentage of the vote that belongs to UKIP and this will offset any loss of liberal tories. The aim is to half the UKIP vote - this would pick up an additional 40 seats apparently. The calculation is that business supporting Tories have no where to go with Labour's current leadership and policy on business. And that liberal minded Tory voters will make the same calculation.

I do think there is a problem though. To do this they have to break out of the middle class bubble. May is still talking primarily to the middle class. Most Tory MPs are very firmly middle (or upper) class. They have the legacy of austerity and Thatcher that will be very difficult to shake. Can they attract the right candidates to break out of this? They will have to battle the tribal idea of 'loyalty' to stand for the Conservatives - particularly in certain places (think mining areas).

Contrast this to UKIP. They have the 'northern' and 'working class' thing in the bag. But they can't get 'quality' candidates to stand. Yesterday's brawl will damage them for that reason. There are respectable, good quality working class people out there who could get politicised enough to stand for them, but these are not people who will be attracted by brawling no matter how much you spin it. UKIP still face an uphill struggle against this. Especially since UKIP's other problem is money and yesterday seems to have scared off a few donors (who perhaps will find the Conservatives much more attractive now anyway).

Labour have more to worry about from UKIP than the Conservatives. But I do wonder if the Conservatives gamble for the Labour/UKIP vote might prove to be more difficult than they think.

Last night's by-election results so far:

Headland & Harbour (Hartlepool) result:
UKIP: 49.2% (+49.2)
LAB: 25.3% (-17.7)
PHF: 15.4% (-20.3)
CON: 4.1% (-14.0)
PNP: 3.6%
IND: 2.6%

This is the one I thought would be most interesting. UKIP clearly didn't stand a candidate here previously - when they have they have nailed it taking massive chucks out of the Labour party (who previously held the seat) independent candidate AND the conservatives. The ConKip conference obviously has had very little impact.

Rumworth (Bolton) result:
LAB: 76.9% (+4.6)
UKIP: 9.1% (-0.9)
CON: 6.0% (-4.4)
GRN: 4.6% (-0.5)
LDEM: 3.5% (+1.2)
Bolton, another working class northern seat - not even the slightest hint of a shift from Labour here.

Risca East (Caerphilly) result:
LAB: 58.9% (+1.6)
PC: 17.7% (-1.1)
UKIP: 17.2% (+17.2)
LDEM: 6.2% (+6.2)

Gilfach (Caerphilly) result:
LAB: 57.9% (-28.0)
PC: 34.2% (+20.0)
UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
GRN: 1.6% (+1.6)

St Ann's (Haringey) result:
LAB: 63.6% (+12.3)
GRN: 17.5% (-3.8)
LDEM: 10.2% (+3.4)
CON: 5.7% (-1.3)
UKIP: 3.0% (-2.9)

I missed this article from the other day in the Telegraph. Its brilliant.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/05/behind-the-smiles-the-conservatives-know-there-is-trouble-ahead/
There have been a couple of articles about Phillip Hammond over the last few days which have been very good profiles. He is supposedly proving to be taking on the role of the 'opposition'. He considers himself unfireable at the moment as to do so would destabilise the government. And he's heavily for the single market - even if this means we have to accept some FoM. He is standing up to May on this.
The Right have been very quiet. Unusually so, giving May room to breathe. But so have the left of the party. George Osborne and Michael Gove did not attend the conference which I didn't know. Also May (and her close advisors) can not keep up with the level of work. She is frequently working until 2am. Its apparently starting to show.

Me2017 - if you live in a diverse London borough, I'm not surprised you are oblivious to the racism in other parts of the country. You should try being an ethnic minority or even white European in some of the market towns round my way.

I do not think the murder of Jo Cox was a 'racist' incident.

So Mr. "Death To Traitors" who was obsessed with a violent struggle for white supremacy and was linked to the British far right, wasn't in any way by xenophobia or racism. OK then, I'll give you that one.

And I bloody well hope you're right, that everybody will go right back to singing Kumbaya with their arms around each other now that even the government are eagerly stoking the flames of xenophobia - and the public have lapped it all up (TM's high approval ratings and YouGov published a study showing strong support for the Yellow Star lists).

I am a racial minority where I live (most mixed borough of London almost) so most people are from all over the world here.

I believe that you don't encounter much racism where you live.

However, I live on the South coast. Plenty of racism, although not much outlet for it outside elections as you could go for days without seeing somebody who isn't white British.

Attitudes to race vary hugely across the UK.

Sara Hagemann ‏@sarahagemann
UK govt previously sought work& advice from best experts. Just told I & many colleagues no longer qualify as not UKcitizens #Brexit @LSEnews

This is getting a lot of attention this morning. Several journalists have picked up on it and apparently are following it up.

She later seems to confirm that this came directly from a government official and was to her personally.

If indeed true, it is probably illegal. (Not to mention its worrying that the government are not listening to people who might have a good point even if they have different views. You should listen to pro-EU voices and not deliberately create an echo chamber. This silences huge parts of the population and it has implications in its own right).

Here’s the thing though. You do not need to have mass deportations of foreigners. All you need to do is make them feel afraid, make them feel unwanted / not part of society / not considered equal. You can make it more difficult to find work by changing the public mood – employers think twice about employing them because of that and either deliberately or subconsciously discriminate against them. This is illegal but that doesn’t matter. Afterall how much discrimination do women face despite the law. It is difficult and stressful to pursue a legal claim WITH the loose moral consensus of the public and government on your side. If the government themselves are at it, and they are the ones doing it then the prospect is rather different.

So when I see people saying ‘When it becomes quite clear that we will not be deporting all the 'foreigners' and that we will still welcome immigrants from all over the world, I hope that will put an end to this idea that 'they' should all go home!’ I think they are rather missing a) the point and b) how the government is doing much to change the national mood which is equally as important as actual policy. How it is perceived in various quarters should not be so quickly dismissed.

Yes - it'll be more a jobsworthy

Hester, I don't agree the UK has changed on immigration. Most British people live in harmony with others. I don't see racism around me at least not to the extent of many other places. We remain a tolerant place. We haven't moved from tolerance to race riots and punching foreigners in the UK. Yes, there have been the occasional incidents but nothing major. It will all be fine.

I think a lot of British people do get along with people of other races when they work with them/live next door to them etc. But often these are the sort of people who say things like 'I don't mean you, Hardeep my friend, I mean the others'.
There was a good example of this on Radio 4 in the run up to the referendum when some workers in a factory that employed a lot of Eastern Europeans on temporary contracts, said they really liked their colleagues, who were hard-working etc, but they wanted the others to go home.

Other posters have already mentioned the other so-called 'incidents' of overt hate crime so I won't.

Thanks Red, you have explained exactly my feelings on the matter in a much clearer way than I could have managed!

Aaahrgh!

Yes - it'll be more a jobsworthy reluctance to accomodate people whose face doesn't fit than overt racism. Overt racism happens behind closed doors - and then it doesn't because if every one us doing it, why hide it?

When I say the others I mean the abstract immigrant - the one that steals your job while simultaneously bleeding dry your benefit system.

I am from the North East (and I know eg Sunderaldn 97% white British was very Brexit) but we are certainly very lucky (or very good) in London to be kind to others of all types. I do not accept however that most people in Sunderland or Newcastle are racist and want to beat up or criticise foreigners. British people are largely tolerant and kind. That does not mean I am walking around with my hands over my ears saying there is no racism (or sexism) in the UK. There is and we should not be complacent.

I don't believe we are walking sleeping into some kind of racist new society in the UK however.

I read an article in the FT (or possibly The Times) yesterday that contrary to so very many press reports the gap between rich and poor has not been getting worse in the UK at all, quite the contrary. The richer ones are paying more tax than ever and having less money. that is not something the press seems to choose to report. Instead it reports inter generational divides, race divides, wealth divides. Perhaps that just sells papers. However it is true that low wages have stagnated over 10 years in the UK and US which has been very hard for people.

The stock market by the way is soaring today. I cannot usually bear to look at my pension fund value whcih I will cash in in a few months' times but today is a nicer day in that respect even though the state will take about half of it all as ever.

That does not mean I am walking around with my hands over my ears saying there is no racism (or sexism) in the UK.

Upthread you were pretty keen to minimise the incidents that have happened as "nothing major".

Interesting article from the Washington Post, sometimes an outside perspective sees the wood for the trees. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-nervous-breakdown-of-british-politics/2016/10/05/6ccbed64-8b39-11e6-bff0-d53f592f176e_story.html?utm_term=.0e057081774e

Just back from a part of the world with enviable growth rates that the free trade pirates Buccaneers think we are going to be free to exploit, and constantly being asked to explain Brexit and Trump, always mentioned in the same sentence, because both are weird and puzzling from their perspective given their relationships with their neighbours and the rest of the world are delivering so many benefits.

One conversation was interesting and caught me short. Talking about the divisions that have arisen and the economic impact especially on the poorest it was pointed out that we have a massive economy, if it is halved it would still be the envy of many of these fast growing economies, and even our poorest enjoy rights and safety nets that would be the envy of many in those countries. Basically I was called out as a winger who suffers from the same collective sense of entitlement as the Brexiteers, because even expecting to maintain fairness and a sharing of prosperity is entitled when elsewhere in the world they feel it is their turn.

Thanks Red for continuing to hack at the coal face of fact and debate in this post truth world.

Me2017:
Totally disagree with you.
Came to this country 40 years ago for its freedom and tolerance. Overnight I have become a'^Foreign Immigrant''. My Essex mother in law told me that she will be sorry to see me leave !
Many EU nationals who have lived in this country for decades no longer feel comfortable and are now conscious of being 'Foreign'. A French friend of mine whose children go to the Lycee is now worried to talk in French to her children in the tube because she is getting some disapproving stares from some passengers (never happened before).
Ps: told my husband that her mother will no longer set foot in my property.

me2017 I live in a very tolerant London borough too, and one where the -deranged UKIP candidate was called out heavily for racism (and homophobia / misogyny ) and lost his deposit. However I have experienced signs of increased racism, perhaps you are not looking? I have heard Polish builders abused by some charming specimens of British Cowboys craftsmen who I certainly would not allow near my home-- in Wickes. Some very unpleasant posters keep going up on lampposts and I am told by the women who run the local Hungarian deli and Polish coffee shop that they have had hate mail. Of course they have had lots of support too but how would that make you feel? I am sure the people who are expressing their racist attitudes had them before, that there has always been an undercurrent of racism in areas like ours, but they knew that it was unacceptable to express them. Now they feel they have been given license by the referendum campaign, and now those in government, not just that but they are being given ammunition too.

'One conversation was interesting and caught me short. Talking about the divisions that have arisen and the economic impact especially on the poorest it was pointed out that we have a massive economy, if it is halved it would still be the envy of many of these fast growing economies, and even our poorest enjoy rights and safety nets that would be the envy of many in those countries. Basically I was called out as a winger who suffers from the same collective sense of entitlement as the Brexiteers, because even expecting to maintain fairness and a sharing of prosperity is entitled when elsewhere in the world they feel it is their turn.'

Yes, they're making a v good point. We take our standards of living for granted, but they might be a freak accident of history. Can the whole world ever have the same ones I wonder? But then I don't know what I'm talking about, I don't have much knowledge in economy.

"the one that steals your job while simultaneously bleeding dry your benefit system"

Schrodinger's immigrant :)

British people are largely tolerant and kind.

Depends on your perspective. You only have to look at children's books up till the 1970's to see that British superiority over 'savages' was pretty much regarded as a truism.

I'm not arguing that British people are particularly worse than anyone else, but Britain has certainly had its fair share of dark periods.

Plenty of prominent British people were pro Hitler. If Britain had lost World War I and suffered crippling inflation, would it have been Germany fighting fascist Britain?

I do believe in a British tendency to pragmatism over extremism, but I'm not seeing much evidence of that in politics at the moment. Cultures can change.

The stagnation of low earners' salaries and the acceleration of the growth of the highest earners salaries has nothing to do with immigrants and everything to do with Government policy

How many times have we had welfare cuts (and changes to tax credits) justified on the basis that the poorest need to be incentivised to work more while simultaneously having tax cuts for the wealthiest justified on the basis that they need more money to incentivise them?

We have a government dedicated to the principle of making and keeping their cronies rich trickle-down economics.

Yet who has the greatest propensity to consume?

I read an article in the FT (or possibly The Times) yesterday that contrary to so very many press reports the gap between rich and poor has not been getting worse in the UK at all, quite the contrary. The richer ones are paying more tax than ever and having less money. that is not something the press seems to choose to report.

I'd be interested to see the source for this Me2007, because it's simply not true. I'm an academic and do research on inequality. There are many many books and articles, using all sorts of data series, that show that inequality (both in terms of income/wealth, and also social outcomes such as health, life expectancy, education) are worsening. I'd be happy to give you some references.

Prettybird, the stagnation of wages has more to do with the fallout from the 2008 financial crash than anything else.

Between 2004 and 2008 wages rose, despite a large increase in immigration.