Interesting article - maybe we will end up not leaving the EU.

[GettinTrimmer]

I've been following the threads on here with interest, and thanks to everybody posting for making them so informative.

Found this article www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-article-50-eu-referendum-uk-will-never-leave-says-top-academic-a7214926.html?cmpid=facebook-post Does anybody think it's a real possibility that we won't actually leave the EU?

No.

I think it's too soon to tell. My prediction is that Theresa May will want to let the legal action over whether parliamentary approval is required to trigger Article 50 reach its final conclusion - not just for legal certainty, but to buy more time to come up with a credible Brexit strategy. She will certainly want to have some informal negotiations with the other Member States before triggering Article 50, because once it is triggered it is like a ticking time bomb and we are in a very difficult position. By the time the legal action is resolved (whether the court decides that parliamentary approval is required or not), we will be into 2017, and Theresa May will probably say there's no point starting negotiations before the French and German presidential elections because she needs to discuss with whoever is actually going to be in power at the relevant time. I would put good money on Article 50 not being triggered within the next year. And if a week is a long time in politics, well a year is a very long time indeed, and who knows where we will be by then...

For now, all they're saying is "Brexit means Brexit", but, tellingly, no one will be drawn on what that actually means.

I hope we leave.

The longer it drags on the more chance there is of not, although it was never going to happen before next year.

I would be nervous of it not happening at all the closer to March it becomes because, as I understand it, laws change which make it harder for countries to leave the eu.

Not really. I think what will happen is something like a decree nisi followed by the other one - a staged departure. So we will trigger art 50 next year, and the first year will mostly involve deciding what will not be included in the first phase of negotiations. A new category of law will be created called something like 'limited legacy ruling' which replaces an existing law with something identical but which has an expiry date. Around ten years' time we might be actually out.

I understand it, laws change which make it harder for countries to leave the eu.

Where are you getting your information from? The procedure for withdrawal is enshrined in the treaty; it's not going to change between now and March. Anyway, withdrawal is already pretty damn difficult, as we're about to find out.

No op. Brexit is a certainty.

& now with Owen Smith saying he'll do all he can to stop it ( well done Owen btw, you've confirmed JC as leader ) TM will push Brexit through even quicker.

Feasible. Apart from the difficulties with Art 60 mandate from parliament is required to repeal the European Communities Act 1972. If no mandate is forthcoming the gov may call a general election & that could change things. Also under the UKs EU Act 2011 a referendum on changing treaties is required. EU & a new trade deal involve changing treaties.

Exiting EU & new trade deal involve changing treaties.

I think it's unlikely that it won't happen. If nothing else most people in this country bizarrely supported Brexit, and I suspect most still do. If the government don't start to make real moves soon the natives.will get restless.

Well if we don't leave at least three out of the seven/eight leave voters I know will be delighted and massively relieved. My mum (who voted leave) will be disappointed because she thought all the foreigners would 'go home' after Brexit and another leave voter I know, who voted leave because David Cameron didn't keep his promise to reduce child poverty, well, I don't think she'll care either way.

I think that May is interested in her own survival, primarily. The Eurosceptics wrecked Major's premiership, and Cameron handed the same Eurosceptics a loaded gun and said, "shoot me but try to miss" and they only heard the first two words and obliged.

I suspect that after a lot of argy-bargy we will get something like the EEA option. Which would be a compromise which no-one really wants.

I also know some leave voters who went with their feelings & think a referendum should not have been in place on something so important, now they realise the complexities. I understand TM has called the cabinet to meet at Chequers to try and come up with a wish list and to iron out the meaning of Brexit.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed we won't leave.

Interestingly, dh has been to a few business meetings recently (both business breakfasts and 1:1s) with a variety of different types of (Scottish) business people. At the most recent business breakfast, where they had presentations from various people about Brexit (one from a guy from RBS which he said was only ok), the consensus from those present at the end of the meeting was that they thought it wouldn't end up happening - and he got the same messages at the individuals meeting he had with other business people (not all Scottish but involved with Scottish business).

Don't know how much of that was influenced by the fact that Scotland could possibly have an alternative future

I have no idea how it will work out and wouldn't like to hazard a guess. I would point out that two months on, neither Fox nor Davis has managed to present anything like a coherent plan, or even say anything which makes sense.

BoJo has perhaps been a bit unlucky with a terrorist atrocity, an attempted coup and an Act of God to contend with, but we have hardly heard a word from him either.

DP has been chatting to some civil servants and lawyer type folks and apparently they think the whole thing is an almighty cockup. It will take years if not decades to unpick all the legislation etc and the politicians who caused the referendum just did not have the slightest clue what they were getting into.

Hopefully the ramifications are becoming a wee bit more apparent to our glorious leader, but it is going to be one hell of a mess.

Yup, it's an ill wind and all that, so at least the lawyers will get rich.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine - that is about the long and short of it, yes.

I think Theresa May knows, though. She's not daft.

It'll happen, but be fudged, mostly it'll be in name only.

Watch this space then....! We will have a long wait by the look of things. From what I can make of TM's character she would only proceed with a detailed plan. I can't imagine how she would get her hard Brexiteers, remainers and moderate Brexiteers to reach a consensus. Also how she would be able to explain the complexities to the voters expecting a points system on immigration. Especially if they are only informed by the headlines in the Daily Express, no attempt to explain to anyone about the complications.

I think we will end up leaving - and it will go down in history as one of the worst modern examples of the dangers of "groupthink" - on a national scale. There is also well known psychological research that shows that people who have made a loss-making decision are more likely to throw "good money after bad" than to row back on their original decision - and much less likely to row back if they belong to a cohesive group that feels under attack.

People have a deep need to avoid the distress and humiliation that goes with conceding that they have made a mistake - so they engage in cognitive dissonance by telling themselves more comfortable narratives eg:

• it's all the fault of those who want to remain in the uk, talking down the economy
• there was always going to be a recession whatever we decided
• the EU would have imploded whatever we decided
• immigration hate crime isn't real

Etc etc

May has explicitly pinned this government to brexit - a serious mistake to do this so unequivocally without consideration.

I don't see how politically, she can avoid leaving the EU, even if it means a punishingly heard 'brexit'.

"We will make a success of it".

If only we had a viable opposition.

I agree with you figment. The only way May could change tack would be if there was strong evidence that public opinion had shifted.

For myself, I think that anyone studying history in say 200 years time, will look back with utter incredulity: "the PM at the time had a spat with a minority faction in his party......" Century equivalent of WTF. As I myself have looked back on history and at times thought, 'what idiotic behaviour'.

Yes, to your comments about the Opposition - utter stupidity on the PLP's behalf. They should have united for 'the duration' as it were, and kept their settling of scores until much, much later. Or grow up and do the job they have been elected for.

That's not meant to be a link, above - got my brackets mixed up!

The government is busily hiring the trade negotiators, consultants, lawyers and regulatory specialists to implement Brexit.

From a negotiating stance, once Article 50 is triggered, the UK loses a lot of its bargaining power vis-à-vis the EU. There should be no rush to trigger Article 50 until we know the lie of the land, have our cannons in place and forces lined up - at least that is what I hope.

The government is busily hiring the trade negotiators, consultants, lawyers and regulatory specialists to implement Brexit.

I think this is going to be one of the costliest exercises in our political history.