Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

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Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Which reminds me - what's happening with the election expenses investigation?

Very much how I remember events saphire and enochroot. I am not even sure that Blair would ever have been elected if MT had not been replaced by JM. The sleaze scandals would not have had the same sticking power.

I can't believe that we now have Neil Hamilton as an AM here in Wales. People DO forget easily. Though I suppose we have PR to thank for that.

The sleaze might not have happened if MT had stayed in power, but I remember MT resigning when I was at school and cheers we're going up around the whole place. MT was stale and being picked st by potential successors. She might have lasted a little while but not long and it would have been debatable whether NK would have been able to beat her in 1992...

I remember being at work when MT resigned and not cheering as I thought that the best chance of getting rid of the Tories at the next election was if she was still leader.

Unfortunately I was right - and that 1992 Conservative victory against the odds ultimately led to Blairism and arguably the chain of events that culminated in the Brexit vote

I recall there were some questions raised about the legitimacy of some of the results of the 1992 election, but nothing came of it. I remember being gutted at the time.

John Smith, for Labour, looked very Prime Ministerial but sadly died. Tony Blair then enforced strict discipline to make sure that Labour got elected in 1997. And then if the fool hadn't gone to war with Iraq.... well, who knows?

Election expenses enquiries are ongoing. Police asked for more time recently. Last articles I read were a few weeks ago but mostly seemed to think it wasn't going to produce a massive smoking gun, and Labour couldn't make a big deal out of it anyway, as they also potentially have some questions to answer.

I recalled that when 'oldies' got the blame for the Leave vote. The baby boomers I know, even now, voted Remain but a huge percentage of my age group were dealt an entirely different hand of cards.
Yes, it's frequently overlooked on baby boomer threads that about 75% of us went to secondary modern schools. Leaving school at 15 was the norm until 1972. We are not a highly educated generation.

School leaving age was only increased from 15 to 16 in 1973: my mum, as a Probationer English teacher, was given the ROSLA class (Raising of the School Leaving Age) . We "started" secondary school together - her as a teacher, me as a pupil showing my age

(This was at that awful school Bearsden Academy which only really cared about the clever kids like me and was prepared to give the "difficult" kids to the inexperienced teacher they weren't to know that she was an inspirational teacher)

Sir Humphrey Appleby explaining Brexit in the Guardian here

Not sure a new sketch was required - the old ones, for example the Euro sausage, wee brilliant and I get the impression that nothing much has changed. (Been watching re-runs on the Yesterday channel)

But still, it does illustrate just how convoluted it all is. No wonder the electorate was confused.

Yes, it's frequently overlooked on baby boomer threads that about 75% of us went to secondary modern schools. Leaving school at 15 was the norm until 1972. We are not a highly educated generation.

My first teaching job was in a school that had been a secondary mod and had become comprehensive two years earlier. The older pupils were heavy going because they felt they had been written off by having failed the 11+ but gradually that attitude changed because perceptions of the school in the city were changing and by the time they left they felt rather better about themselves. A rapid expansion of the staff with young idealistic teachers also benefited them. It was a remarkable transformation and a pleasure to see young people's life chances improve so markedly.

Sorry if this tangent into education seems to be going off topic but I have long felt that education should not be a political football. I would hope that one day a cross-party consensus could be reached to agree on a national education policy that really could work for the majority.

Pardon my french but fuck me, I've only just caught up on the news and I thought we were just having a philosophical discussion about grammar schools.

If I'd realised they were actually on the cards again, I'd have been far more forceful with my posts. Why on earth would May attempt this with a majority of 12? I doubt she'd even have her own party totally behind her.

I'm not so sure about that, Flo. The vast majority of existing grammars in England are in Tory areas, and it only seems to a thing for people who already have them - I have never heard anyone with kids at school, or who is likely to have kids in the next few years indicate that they think grammar schools would be a good thing in our city.

We currently have one, but it is doubly-selective, you have to be sufficiently Catholic and pass the entrance test, so it doesn't even figure for the vast majority of parents. Considering the advantages it has (because it's on the edge of the city so takes heavily from the next, less deprived authority), it doesn't even do that well.

May's been very canny, floating the idea without committing to it...

Maybe she's going to promise a referendum to buy some Ukip votes
They could campaign for a grammar school place for everyone. Oh wait....

May is going to buy UKIP votes with bribes in fracking areas (in the north). Yet more division.

I went to a couple of meetings with John Smith, and also witnessed the (positive) response to him from senior business leaders. I am sure he was the greatest leader the UK never had. Sad

I live in an area that's been allocated under fracking licences. It's mad as the geology of the area really doesn't suggest there'd be much there despite historical coal mining. It's also an ANOB, open forest etc. People aren't that happy about it but the protest groups haven't developed much momentum or mass yet. If the £10k bribe gets kicked about it will be very divisive ( poor area but lots of affluent retirees).
It's one of those headline schemes that pose lots of questions and is ridiculously vague but people will latch onto ( shades of the referendum?)
There's no explanation of what area will be covered or at what stage in the process it would be paid- pre exploration or on successful production?
As a blatant bribe though it will probably be popular but won't begin to make up for the damage to house prices!

The fracking bribe reminds me of one of my favourite films - Local Hero. Only this time there's no Burt Lancaster to fly in and save the day.

[https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/manufacturing/news/77971/owen-smith-pledges-new-industrial-revolution]]
Smith and the New Industrial Revolution. (Personally I think Prince and the New Power Generation were better).

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/06/treasury-looks-at-quitting-the-single-market-as-city-rejects-nor/
The banks reject the Norway option and may forget passporting (hard brexit awaits)

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-need-for-a-written-constitution/
The need for a written constitution.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/petition-trump-narcissist-medical-mental-state-psychology-a7177681.html
Petition to have Trump's mental health assessed. (It naturally will get nowhere)

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/07/liam-fox-azerbaijan-relationship-book-publishing
Liam Fox and Azerbaijan.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/manufacturing/news/77971/owen-smith-pledges-new-industrial-revolution
Smith link above.

Not feeling any more love for OS this morning. Just watched the OJ interview with JC, talking about building the manufacturing sector and harnessing innovation. What is OS saying that is news?

Also interesting article by Zoe Williams today. Seen a lot of her on TV recently asking questions rather than making pronouncements. She has been doing some research and the result is a thoughtful response to the Brexit vote rather than OS's denial mode which already sounds behind the curve and somewhat irrelevant.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/07/north-poor-brexit-myths?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term

Just like Local Hero Fliosme. DH and I were discussing this yesterday. We are both anti-Hinkley and pro-renewables. Scotland can afford to take a different view as the energy landscape is different. We find ourselves torn on fracking for the rest of the UK because there is an energy security issue but perhaps not as severe as politicians would have us believe if the current oil price is an indication?

Red, I was just reading that Telegraph piece and it's all spin. No one quoted in it 'rejects' the Norway option and no one says we'd be fine without passporting.

The City of London Corporation guy is being pragmatic and weighing up options, but I don't get any sense of real enthusiasm for rejecting passporting from his quotes.

The BBA want a Norway deal –with caveats though, that sound as though they want the UK to still have a say in financial negotiations and regulation.

Basically, my impression from this article is that no one is exactly running towards the idea of losing passporting as to a bright new future. As with so much Brexit stuff, they seem to be weighing up options to try to decide which is the least bad one; and they all seem to have different ideas about that.

Johnson, Davis et al are basically spending all their time at the moment talking to different groups of people, all of whom are giving them different answers to the question of 'How do we leave?'

I don't envy them.