Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Owen Smith is deluded, why would the EU commit to negotiations knowing that the result would almost certainly be rejected at the conclusion for falling short of everyone's expectations, come to that why would we want to do that? He should just stick to opposing Brexit.

thanks tiggytape, it was this quote from him that I was refering to
"We will vote in Parliament to block any attempt to invoke Article 50 until Theresa May commits to a second referendum or a general election on whatever EU exit deal emerges at the end of the process."
which implies negotiating first and only then consulting the UK public, as you put so much more eloquently than me a vote to reject at the end of the process would leave the UK and the EU in disarray and almost back to square one. It's this part if his plan I object to, we all have to accept that once talks start we are commited to whatever result we get.

I completely agree Owen Smith is at best deluded and at worst totally naive and incapable of thinking through a policy / negotiating stance. Very well articulated post Tiggy.

I am from the West of Scotland. I do not use the term "Unionist" in conversation and I think RD would be well advised to develop a more nuanced terminology unless her intention is to increase sectarianism.

Martin McGuiness would say all that though. He forgets to mention the bilateral arrangements between the UK and Ireland which saved it from the worst of EU imposed austerity. He also doesn't mention that Stormont is in legislative paralysis most of the time.

I think May will probably ignore the 16M who voted against, as she will be desperate to keep her shiny new job.

I think part of the problem is that May has been given nothing at all to work with.

She has no bargaining power whatsoever unless she uses hard brexit as leverage. She either therefore, choses to start from a weak position or she goes with it in order to try and force a better position.

There has been this comment floating around which bothers me:
"Remainers are pushing us to hard brexit".

This now actually makes a bit more sense. Its also almost emotional blackmail. I think the point is essentially to say, that you either accept a deal like the Canadian Free Trade one they seem to be after, or we will have no option but to jump off the cliff.

Its a way of silencing remainers by threats essentially.

But behind it is a reality, in that every opposition anyone puts up, damages the chances of the hard bargain with the EU working.

The trouble is that is far too simplist, and only places the blame on people who have no choice but to challenge the idea. Remain WILL eventually be given the can to carry for the failure of Brexit if that's the way it goes. There will be no taking of responsibility. Only vilification. Besides which remain CAN NOT merely lie down and take it even if they wanted to.

As previously mentioned, Sinn Fein and the Republican element of NI will not accept it. They simply can't as it goes against everything they believe and everything they have fought for. To neglect this, is to underestimate the seriousness of the issue.

I think this is where the use of the word unionist, is so controversial. As a politician, May WILL know the sensitivity of the word. She will know using it, is not trivial at all.

What makes me angry now is not just that its clear that actually, people DIDN'T KNOW what they were voting for in terms of peace in NI and the implications of Brexit which is something very close to my heart and has had a direct impact on my life, but upon finding this out, THEY JUST DON'T CARE.

May really doesn't. Or she would not have used the word Unionist.

It invalidates the comfort I found in the GFA. That's 20 odd years of something that made dreadful events have some meaning, screwed up and chucked in the bin. I'm English. I haven't lived through it in NI.

There is NO solution here if you properly understand the situation in NI.

Even if an Out but In solution is put on the table, which lets England and Wales leave but NI (and probably Scotland in this situation) stay, this STILL will not be acceptable because of the ideology of nationalism at work here.

All I keep hearing is how 'undemocratic' it will be to ignore the mandate of the referendum. Yet it is far more undemocratic to do what looks like is about to happen to NI.

Of all the dreadful things about Brexit, and there have been loads, its the complete dismissal of violence that relates to both xenophobia and indifference of need for a peace plan that utterly disgusts me.

I can deal with leaving the EU in terms of the economics and opportunity. I CAN NOT accept the undermining of the GFA because I've seen first hand what that really means.

I think the Off The Cliff Plan, screws Scotland too except unlike NI who have a very good challenge whilst Nicola Sturgeon thinks she has a strong hand, the reality will become increasingly the opposite.
Today she's been told to back off Indy 2 because of the collapse of oil prices. I'm sure this was obvious already to most people including May.
www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/snp/nicola-sturgeon/news/78368/nicola-sturgeon-told-forget-about-indyref-2
May just has to ride it out and give an offer the Scots 'can not refuse' logically. Except what does logic have to do with nationalism?

It also neglects the fact that even if all remainers do accept a Brexit, there is all these other side issues relating to other rights that need to be established. If they aren't they affect a whole host of issues that are everyday for some people.

Nor should we forget that the Lords really are compelled to stop Brexit if it would undermine the GFA. I was unaware of the balance of power in the Lords; Tories are out numbered 3 to 1.

And again there is the example of Iceland we should be wary of. Following the collapse of Icesave they were given the choice - accept this deal and it will cost you this, or we are screwed if we don't and it will cost us even more. Inexplicably in a referendum Iceland put two fingers up to the government and told them to fuck off. (Ooo sounds familiar doesn't it). And all got hit in the pocket. Even when its an economic argument against an economic argument rather than a hearts v heads nationalist type one, people who are pissed off still defy logic.

If you know anything about Iceland, then its not this utopia where the banks got jailed and they told Europe to do one. It did not and has not 'just worked out' for them. They are condemned for a generation and their children are condemned too. This is the path the UK has chosen. Except with violence thrown in for good measure.

www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/foreign-exchange_the-eerie-calm-of-the-swiss-franc-after-brexit/42392168#.V7169PxmHLA.twitter
Meanwhile it Switzerland the mood is that the swiss franc is calm. Too calm.

I'm sorry, I'm rather despairing this morning.

A depressing blog here about Labour's failure to state the obvious during the referendum campaigning, and the consequences for them now.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/why-corbyns-brexit-campaign-matters.html?utmsource=feedburner&utmmmedium=twitter&utmcampaign=Feed:+MainlyMacro+(mainly+macro)&m=1

A depressing blog post here about Labour's failure to state the obvious during the referendum campaigning, and the consequences for them now.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/why-corbyns-brexit-campaign-matters.html?utmsource=feedburner&utmmmedium=twitter&utmcampaign=Feed:+MainlyMacro+(mainly+macro)&m=1

I really can't agree with this blogger criticising Corbyn for taking a holiday during the campaign, when Cameron wouldn't have done. Cameron called the stupid referendum, Corbyn didn't.

An article from the FT on how FUKD Science is at the moment by Brexit. "“Scientists made a big mistake because we assumed that providing facts and evidence would be compelling — and we were entirely ignored.” www.ft.com/content/1f0d22c2-6619-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227

I don't think the holiday thing was the main point of the blog, but I do think he made a valid point about the economic arguments - by disagreeing with Osborne/Cameron in the campaign, once Remain lost and bad economic things start to happen, he left himself nowhere to go (should he have had any intention of going anywhere with it anyway, which I'm not convinced he did).

Math - A very interesting insight into 20th cen. politics. However my point is that we really shouldn't carry on these connotations that words seem to have picked up along the way and regain our language. I am 60 and am used to being able to use the word Unionist to describe or Conservative party in Scotland and will continue to do so.

Corcory, I am 51 and all through my childhood the word Unionist was synonymous with the face and venom of Ian Paisley (DUP), who was opposed not just to any whiff of a united Ireland, but to fair drawing of parliamentary and local government constituencies in NI, and actually to civil rights for the RC minority in NI. It was also associated with the UVF, the UDA, and the UFF, all classed as terrorists. Some of these paramilitary groups have links with the far right in Britain, including neo-Nazis, Combat 18, the British National Socialist Movement, and the British National Front. They have been responsible for racist attacks in loyalist areas. And then there is the bowler hatted Orange Order, insisting on marching through Catholic areas year after year to commemorate a battle that happened in the 1690s.

I am really aghast that you seem so blithely unaware of the history of Northern Ireland that you scoff at '20th century politics'.

What problems do you think the Good Friday Agreement was supposed to address?
I can assure you that it was far more then 'connotations that words seem to have picked up along the way'.

This is whatUnionism meant and still means in some quarters.

Unionism in Northern Ireland was a potent blend of rabid Calvinism and anti-communism (that part imported directly from Joseph McCarthy's America via American fundamentalist bible thumping churches that had links with NI). It offered nothing but fever-pitched opposition to all political ideas left of Enoch Powell's, fueled by fear. It was backward-looking, history-obsessed, always in defensive mode, and ready to contribute nothing to discussions about present or future except a negative knee-jerk reaction.

Unicorns, my grandfather was an officer in the Indian Army at the time of the Curragh mutiny. An Irish, Catholic officer, a graduate of Sandhurst, he was stationed in the Northwest Territories for most of his career, with stints in China and Burma. The Mutiny and the lack of disciplinary action left him and his fellow Irish Catholic officers furious. When he was injured in 1916 at the battle of Kut in what was then Mesopotamia, rather than take an army desk job he resigned his commission, returned to Ireland, and threw in his lot with the rebellion then under way.

[McGuinness] also doesn't mention that Stormont is in legislative paralysis most of the time.

It will be very interesting to see how the Stormont parties learn to be more co-operative when the financial shit hits the fan and EU money is no longer available to squabble over.

I predict that politicians in NI will start to pull together more when it becomes obvious that all of their backs are to the wall. I also predict that unionist parties that supported Remain will be looking at all the options NI has and not ruling any out, because the loss of EU money has the potential to be nothing short of catastrophic to NI.

(And the US Congress is in legislative paralysis most of the time too.)

As previously mentioned, Sinn Fein and the Republican element of NI will not accept it. They simply can't as it goes against everything they believe and everything they have fought for. To neglect this, is to underestimate the seriousness of the issue.

Everyone in NI gave up a lot in order to sign that agreement. Everyone left cherished positions behind or at least put a brave face towards the future.

The only major party to support Leave was the Democratic Unionist Party. All the others, unionist and nationalist and Greens and Alliance and the Social Democratic Labour Party, were Remainers.

The only major party to support Leave was the Democratic Unionist Party.

And because they happen to be on the side which gained the most votes in England and Wales, we are now being told that their wishes are the ones which are going to be enacted and hang the rest. As, IMO, the Tory party has given in to its UKIP wing, so now their voices are the only ones to be heard and anyone objecting has to 'suck it up, because that's democracy'.

It was backward-looking, history-obsessed, always in defensive mode, and ready to contribute nothing to discussions about present or future except a negative knee-jerk reaction.

God, that sounds depressingly familiar.

Farage has promised to return to front line politics by 2018 if Brexit hasn't been delivered.

Kevin Schofield ‏@PolhomeEditor

Now here's a thing. Lord Sainsbury gave more than £2m to Labour AND the Lib Dems between April and June.

Harry Tuttle ‏@arryTuttle
@PolhomeEditor shouldnt he be expelled from Labour for supporting another party ?

press.labour.org.uk/post/149457036444/the-tory-promise-on-immigration-lies-in-tatters
Labour release press release on immigration.

www.ft.com/content/2e7baf4e-fa49-11e5-8f41-df5bda8beb40
The US are supporting firms like Apple against the EU against unpaid tax bills.

Of course, if we are not in the EU, then we have trouble enforcing this too. However, it could make us look more attractive than the EU for big business... You know those big businesses that people don't like and want to get their fair share of taxes off.

www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/08/brexit-means-politics.html
Brexit means politics.
The real strategy must be to divide and reform Europe

Your Must Read of the Day.

Thank you red. The article is good, as is the earlier one referred to in it... Unfortunately the comments are very depressing...all hard Brexit and now.

all hard Brexit and now.
But still with a flavour of the Empire about them, as with this one: "Personally I see no role for a policy that favours Europeans above the Commonwealth. Nor does most of the UK voters." I suspect he means 'White Commonwealth'. Was anyone asked about the Commonwealth? My own feeling is that it will become increasingly irrelevant once the Queen dies.

So this is go back to the EEC, which would suit many Remainers well enough, but not sure that it would suit the Tories who seem to have completely sold out to the Eurosceptics.

I do feel that the Hard Brexiters were expecting the EU to fall apart imminently. Who can say? Who in 1971 would have predicted the Re-unification of Germany and the falling apart of the USSR 20 years later?

I agree about the Commonwealth. I remember reading that the commonwealth members have made it brutally clear to Charles that he will not be automatically head of the commonwealth if/ when he becomes king.

Will diehard tories be so keen on the commonwealth if the head of the commonwealth is Justin Trudeau or Ian Khana (Botswana)?

I do feel that the Hard Brexiters were expecting the EU to fall apart imminently.

I think official policy is increasingly moving towards actively wanting to make this happen.

The friendly noises to Russia are consistent with this though may just scare the bejesus out of the EU more and leave them clinging to it in sheer panic and fear in a siege mentality.

Never mind the Commonwealth I think the monarchy will be stretched to outlast King Charles in this country. He's far too political, and I just don't think he'll be able to help himself.

I think Kate's redeeming feature is precisely because she together with William are so bland but makes a nice photograph.

Charles might never become King, his mother might outlive him, although he does seem healthy enough. Kate and William might become like 'those awful bicycling Scandinavian monarchies'. Wasn't that the quote from Her Maj?

You know my cunning plan to write Ukip:The Sitcom (in the light of failing to win Euromillions last week)? Well some bastard has only gone and beaten me to it!!!

"Porridge star Kevin Bishop will portray the outgoing Ukip leader in the 30-minute project which will be a combination of direct pieces to camera and footage detailing the “day-to-day reality of being Nigel Farage”."