Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Patty The tweet by Heather Wheeler was a very silly thing to do and was supposed to be a joke and a reaction to an official tweet by the EU showing total medals won by all the EU countries added up together and saying that the EU won the Olympics as if it were a country.
Any mention of the Common Wealth or joke about the Empire are taken as if all Brexiters want to harp back to the Empire. Well I for one certainly don't. We have moved on a very long way from these days.
But it certainly seems as if some officials in the EU think we are states of one nation!

We have moved on a very long way from these days.

But when some Leavers are talking about trading with the 'anglosphere' or the 'old commonwealth' i.e. white countries of Australia, New Zealand and Canada, then you know that quite a lot haven't.

Or indeed China, remember we had an interesting trade deal with them in the 19th century, I think the assumption we can suddenly masssively expand our markets in China comes from the same place. Only problem is we can't send in gunships, and it is illegal to grow and trade in Opium......

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
1. Have just listened to @trussliz on the Today programme re British Bill of Rights.
ht @legalcheek's last para at
www.legalcheek.com/2016/08/were-still-scrapping-the-human-rights-act-says-liz-truss/
2. Am usually first to criticise @MoJGovUK, but my impression was @trussliz not making any great announcement re British Bill of Rights.
3. @trussliz was not on the programme to make announcement re BBR but about prisions. No MoJ press release about BBR today either.
4. Question about BBR came almost in passing, and it seems to me @trussliz just parroted official line re BBR and HRA.
5. The wording @trussliz used almost identical to bland) wording I got a couple of weeks ago when I asked MoJ press office re BBR and HRA.
6. Even @trussliz's filler of "absolutely" is not new - she uses it when she's asked about BBR, see this from 2015:
www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-accused-of-headlong-retreat-over-pledge-to-scrap-human-rights-act-10278582.html
7. Combination of parroting MoJ official line, and her standard filler "absolutely" indicates @trussliz has given no real thought to BBR.
8. It was only newsworthy as this was (I think) @trussliz's first interview as Justice Secretary.
9. Nothing in what said was news re BBR, and did not really warrant the many articles etc written about what she said.
10. And so: there is still a blank sheet of paper in a folder marked 'British Bill of Rights' at @MoJGovUK. Nothing changed today.

Ends.

Well, what it does say, is that no one IN GOVERNMENT has a fucking clue whats going on in May's head!

In fact, if May does stick to her leadership bid assertion about the HRA, then this is potentially hugely embarrassing as she's apparently forgotten to inform her own staff of this.

The Tory Right had been set up to believe that the HRA was staying from her previous comments, but were pretty happy because they had Brexit.

Truss's comments yesterday, have now got them all worked up and excited about the fact that actually the much hated HRA was going after all.

So now there would now have to be a U-turn about a U-turn.

Plus it has the potential to make Truss look like a right dickhead.

Ouch.

www.politico.eu/article/tory-dream-of-a-short-sharp-brexit-theresa-may-conservative/
There is a plan. Well this is apparently regarded as the Plan B option, and the one that the EU are threatening they would sue over.

To you and me, this shall henceforce will be dubbed the Off The Top Of The Cliff Plan.
The boldest option on the table — and that favored by the hardliners — is for an immediate snap Brexit, dubbed “unilateral continuity” by Tory MPs. Under this proposal the U.K. simply informs Brussels that it has left the EU and does not impose trade tariffs unless the rest of the EU does so first.

The radical plan, which veteran Euroskeptics believe is being studied seriously in Whitehall, would see May trigger Article 50 and then pass an act of parliament to annul the 1972 European Communities Act, unilaterally taking the U.K. out of the EU.

Brussels insiders dismiss the plan, insisting that it is illegal and would see the EU taking Britain to court.

I guess this is what the likes of IDS are getting wet dreams over and pushing for.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/owen-smith-supporters-say-he-is-catching-up-with-jeremy-corbyn_uk_57b70843e4b042aee74b53aa
Owen Smith enters the land of wishful thinking

www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/08/vicky-ford-what-the-other-eu-member-states-are-thinking-about-the-brexit-negotiations.html
Over at Conservative Home is this.

Off topic, but interesting, in the context of the Russian thing and the Nationalist thing and various other issues running parallel to Brexit:
www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/serb-referendum-splits-bosnia-s-international-overseers-08-23-2016?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBalkansLatestHeadlines+%28The+Balkans%3A+Latest+Headlines%29
The part of Bosnia which is mainly ethnically Serbian is talking of holding a referendum about self-determination. This has been met with hostility and has been suggested that such a move would be illegal. It, of course, would inflame tensions.

Sarah Wollaston MP Verified account @sarahwollaston
Expect problems when thin evidence is used to bolster an under resourced political objective instead of policy following the evidence.
4:41 PM - 22 Aug 2016

Well there's an interesting and well timed tweet from the tory mp who switched from leave to remain. She was actually talking about health...

And finally this.

The only connotation I would talk about trading with commonwealth countries would be that I would think it easier to do trade deals in that our laws, systems and regulations have been set up in very similar ways. I certainly I don't think of the Common Wealth as a predominately 'white' group of countries.

I think the MP, Richard Graham, who was talking about the 'old' Commonwealth was most definitely thinking about the white commonwealth.

The thing about Commonwealth countries is that, similar systems and regulations notwithstanding, they're generally a fuck of a long way from the UK. Short travel times and lower costs are a very attractive aspect of inter-EU trade.

Interesting article in the ft about the UKIP chaos, including reviews of today's runners and riders www.ft.com/cms/s/0/68890936-6879-11e6-a0b1-d87a9fea034f.html#axzz4I9pucsdS

this also may well have been posted already - sorry if it has: www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/22/seven-changes-needed-to-save-the-euro-and-the-eu.

What - I can't imagine anyone thinking that we could restore our trading links with China because of our links with them in the 19th century! They are certainly an entirely different country now!

This seems to reflect the new normal as well, and is very scary. I hope TM can get a grip on this here, but it isn't that far removed from being told you have to take your own pen to the voting booth:

www.politico.eu/article/what-if-donald-trump-wont-accept-defeat-election-hillary

This FT article is worth highlighting:
Brexit border conundrum

The sentence which makes me saddest is this:
“It [the Good Friday Agreement]] is one of the most successful models for conflict resolution around the world,” writes Fintan O’Toole. “Messing around with it is an insult, not just to Ireland, but to Britain’s international standing.”

Nowadays China has bigger guns than we do. At least (perhaps) until we get Trident. That was the only way we persuaded them to trade with us last time.

I can confirm that lots of civil servants are being promoted into the Brexit department - not just fast streamers, but Bright Young Things (including former fast streamers) who probably needed another post or two under their belt before taking the next step up.

But - this is what tends to happen when a new policy area suddenly appears, it's not a unique phenomenon

Peregrina, that FT piece is paywalled for me, but yes, I agree with you and O'Toole; what an achievement it was, and how saddening the prospect is of its being undermined.

Mo Mowlam put so much blood, sweat and tears into it. She must be turning in her grave.

China does want to trade with us. If the meaning of "trade" is selling us stuff.

The UK does export some stuff to China, particularly machinery, and consumer goods for the rich and the middle class. I don't know how much more of that kind of thing we can sell, given that there are serious doubts about the growth of the Chinese economy.

Points from Parliament briefing - 2014 figures but I couldn't find any later ones.

In 2014, UK exports to China were worth £18.7 billion. Imports from China were £38.3 billion. The UK had a trade deficit of £19.6 billion with China.
China accounts for 3.6% of UK exports and 7.0% of all UK imports.

Corcory I meant that the same sense of entitlement that we had in the nineteenth century, though then at least it was based on a conviction of racial superiority, our access to gunships and an empire that provided us with a cheap and usefully addictive cash crop with which to develop and exploit a market need, now underpins this assumption that China is going to provide us with massive new markets to fuel our future prosperity. There really is no other explanation for this blind optimism when in fact it is a huge rapidly growing economy intent on fuelling it's own prosperity and we have not so far shown that, outside a few market niches, we have an effective marketing strategy that will actually deliver all this profitable trade.

PattyPenguin This is an interesting article on the luxury goods market, which has been very lucrative for British brands, Burberry does 25% of it's business there and ten years ago companies like LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) were assured of yearly double, even treble, digit growth. However it has all slowed down not just because growth as slowed but because the consumer needs are changing and the companies need to adopt more sophisticated marketing strategies based on a knowledge of those needs. And this is in a trade sector where the living was traditionally easy.... It's those unicorns being elusive and hard to pin down again

knowledge.ckgsb.edu.cn/2016/01/25/branding/is-time-running-out-for-luxury-in-china/

From Red's link
Vicky Ford: What the other EU member states are thinking about the Brexit negotiations

She seems sensible enough but excerpts from her Science and Research paragraph stood out.
Science is fundamentally a people business. Just as British-based experts have come here from all over the world, so they can easily relocate. If we want to remain at the forefront of world science and innovation we need to send a clear message that we are open to scientists from across the world.

The last sentence is just empty words. How are you going to send your clear message that we are open to scientists across the world? I want to see her make some clear commitments - "I will try to ensure that UK science funding matches the amount that the UK currently pays to the EU,", " I will press for scientists to gain easy entry to the UK" and so on.

I can see that as an MEP it could be difficult because she can expect to be out on her ear after 2019, but she is still a member of the Tory party, so should still be making her voice heard.

Belgian unicorns. Very little detail, but it does at least show that there are people in Europe looking for creative solutions to our current predicament. Presumably we just have to pick the best one and then convince David Davis that he actually thought of it first...

A North Sea Union is an interesting idea, although I would put the Scandinavian countries, Germany, Netherlands and the UK and Ireland in it, and leave out France.

If I were to create any more unions I would then create a Latin Bloc with Spain, Portugal, France and Italy and then an Eastern bloc.

And then there might be a few countries left over, which didn't fit! Hmm, not sure what to do about those.

And then there might be a few countries left over, which didn't fit! Hmm, not sure what to do about those.

That's the problem. Unions within unions, smaller and smaller circles being drawn... I would be very wary of that.

If we're talking ideal-world, I still want an independent city--state of London.

At the bottom of that article it says France has been trying to establish a Mediterranean Union but it all went tits up following the Arab spring.

As for the ones that don't fit, we'll just pretend they aren't there!

Unions?

Didn't we want to be free of them?

Interesting idea, but I'm not sure I'd call it a 'new' one as such. There has been plenty about a north and south EU in the past. This seems to be a development of that idea.

I don't think it would match May's 3 pillars though.

And bugger off with your London City state.

What about the rest of us?

I know, Red . When I say 'ideal-world' I do also slightly mean 'tongue-in-cheek'.