Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Behind the curve again but just want to respond to Mother re Scottish student loans. Access to minimum maintenance loan is broadly similar to England and the level is also broadly similar. (Prior to GO abolishing English grants, the grants on offer to Scottish students were lower and so poorer students ended up with higher loans and lower grants relative to poor Engish students). Bear in mind that Scottish degrees are 4 years rather than 3 and interest rolls up during years of study. Therefore an average fee free middle class student who takes the minimum maintenance loan ends up with debt of £20k. The loan interest terms are broadly similar between the 2 systems. However the English student repays at 9% of salary above about £21k, whereas the Scottish student repays at 9% of salary above about £17.5k. ie repayments are substantially higher for lower salary levels in Scotland (Also worth noting there are far fewer stellar graduate starting salaries in Scotland than London).

Given these figure and the fact that the total loan is £20k rather than £40+k a lot of middle class students in Scotland do not take the loan and are funded by family because they make the calculation that they will repay it in full and in the current climate it is not a cheap source of funds.

It is my suspicion that the Scottish system actually makes money for the Scottish exchequer but I very much doubt the SNP or any other Scottish politician would say so.

Haven't surveys post Brexit shown that support for the EU from it's remaining members has increased?

Seeing the chaos that is unfolding in the UK will make things interesting for the other EU leaders as Brexit runs its course. They don't need to make things tough for us "as an example" - we're doing that to ourselves

Also Australian support for a republic has increased - so will the Commonwealth change? Oddly, though, watching America is making me less inclined to dump the monarchy just yet. I'm totally confused.

The EU is sort of ingrained in Western Europe's culture now. Anyone who lived on the continent when the borders came down sort of 'lived' the European story

Very much my experience

I was 17 when the euro came out, me and my friends were so excited to go get our first bills from the ATM. It's all my generation has ever known.

My very broad and simplistic feeling is that Western Europeans (especially the young) are on board with the ideals of the EU but have issues with some of its practical aspects and policies. While a majority of British people have major issues both with the principle and with the practicalities

Also agree that anti-immigration sentiment in France is overwhelmingly directly at non-EU immigration. It's immigrants from the old North African colonies that are perceived as the "problem". The Islam concerns are relatively new but only reinforcing older xenophobic (and plain old racist) patterns.

Farage for president - there's a horrible thought!

I guess the freedom of movement talks between DC and AM were looking at non EU nationals coming into the EU and then having freedom of movement. This would potentially be easier to sell to all countries in the refugee crisis than restricting the right if eu nationals to travel.

This may have been posted before but it's relevant to what Chalalala and Unicorns say:
indy100.independent.co.uk/article/migration-in-europe-explained-in-four-maps--W1Ze1FKbb8b
Many countries, including the UK, have more immigrants from outside the EU.

www.france24.com/en/20160723-police-attacked-near-paris-cars-torched-over-death-custody?ref=tw_i
Civil unrest in Paris
I've not seen ANYTHING about this in the British press. Personally I think this has echoes of the London Riots - which was the very epitome of dissatisfaction, disenfranchisement, and inequality in the UK.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/boris-johnson-distances-brexit-donald-trump-isolationism
Johnson distancing Brexit from Trumpism.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/22/brexit-talks-uk-limbo-sequence-negotiations-eu
May wants talks BEFORE a50.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/23/ukip-donor-arron-banks-gives-more-clues-about-starting-new-party
More rumblings from Banks about a replacement to UKIP.
I note yesterday, that I was saying that UKIP's Achilles heel was their inability to raise suitable candidates for local elections and build upwards from that and here's Banks saying they need to step up their game.
Banks, has actually written an article for the Guardian about May only delivering a weak Brexit:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/23/to-deliver-the-brexit-we-voted-for-ukip-must-rise-again

The anti-EU brigade have been claiming for the last 15 years (e.g. Torygraph) that the EU is going to collapse imminently
Some people seem to want an organisation or an employer etc to collapse when they leave, to justify their own decision.

In fact, Brexit has made people realise how interlinked all the economies are and how they would suffer financially if they left.

IFOP survey
Support for EU up after UK Brexit vote:
89% Poland
81% Germany +18
81% Spain + 9
75% Belgium + 11
67% France + 19
59% Italy +4

However, I've worked a lot in Germany since the 1980s and I have noticed a definite change over the last few years in public attitudes to immigration:

I've never heard or read of any significant hostility to EU immigration but, especially after the Cologne attacks, there has been great concern about MENA immigration and their very different attitudes to women especially.
I work with colleagues from France, Italy, Spain, Austria - attitudes and worries are very similar.

Merkel politically walked on water for years, but her rep in Germany and the wider EU was ruined after Cologne, when people felt able to voice concerns, but she didn't want to listen.

Germany needs immigrants - with Germans having so few babies, the population is set to fall from over 80 million to 60 million within about a generation.
However, most Germans want EU immigrants who will work and fit into their culture, not the predominantly unsocialised & uneducated men & boys she invited, who are not expected to be able / willing to contribute much.

btw, it would have been a great opportunity for millions of Brits even without skills, to come to Germany over the next few decades and be taught a trade or just have unskilled jobs.

Popular demand plus the fear of the far right are making politicans across Europe consider strengthening EU borders and helping refugees in their own region, rather than allowing them to immigrate into the EU.

So, action may well be agreed to drastically reduce the non-EI immigration, which is probably a more important issue to TM's Tory voters than EU immigration

Interesting RedToothBrush what you're saying about UKIP's weakness at a local government level.

I know the SNP is placing great importance on next May's local government elections (in Scotland, they're all done at once barring bye elections).

Having "won" at Westminster and Holyrood, they recognise that it's important to win at the local level as for many of the public, that's where they see politics that affect them in action.

Hence why a city like Glasgow - a Labour fiefdom bastion - is a major target. There's a single Tory councillor (in my ward - he's actually been a good councillor as he has no vested interests) but I doubt he'll get in next time he won't be getting my vote even though I voted for him last time, ignoring his politics but in acknowledgement of his hard work

I loved the Express raving about the Secret EU Illuminati
They use David Icke - who claims giant lizards are ruling the world - as a source

If you need comic relief:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/692031/Does-hand-sign-made-by-Merkel-May-and-now-Juncker-prove-there-is-a-secret-EU-illuminati?_ga=1.231942559.1081435482.1469274330

btw, I never know what to do with my hands either, when I'm presenting something in public.
I was thinking of copying Merkel's hand diamond as it looks relaxing.
Maybe some of the audience will think I'm a Secret Lizard too

I wouldn't count on the EU to spontaneously rejoin the UK position on free movement, for a couple of reasons

• as already said European opinion's issues are mostly with non-EU immigration and, to some extent, Schengen for security reasons, neither of which help the UK
• I would expect Eastern European countries to fight tooth and nail against immigration restrictions
• it would appear that France at least is hoping to use the UK wish for immigration controls as a bargaining tool to get an economically advantageous deal. So why would the EU give the UK a gift that would weaken its negotiating position?

The DM has had an article up all morning explicitly blaming Merkel's migrants policy for the Munich massacre

Even though it's been known for hours that the killer was born in Germany

They have no shame

The hand gesture thing is funny. Politicians are actively taught to control their body language in order to not 'give anything away' or unintentionally give out signals that might be negative to people watching.

Think the hilarious 'George Osborne Power Stance' with legs apart as a good example of it being rubbish.

Putting your hands together with fingers touching is known as 'steepling'. Its regarded as a sign of power. Therefore you would actually EXPECT people in this position to do it naturally, and if they didn't you would expect them to learn.

In fact there are two types of steepling, one with your fingers pointed up and one with your fingers pointed down. Fingers up, is regarded as particularly powerful, and used to much can be viewed as arrogant. Fingers down on the other hand is supposed to signal that the person is listening more than talking.

Many of these type of gestures transcend language barriers, so again, you would actually EXPECT more deliberate use of them as a means to signal certain things in international diplomacy. 'Merkel's diamond' signalling listening, is therefore entirely the time of hand gesture you would perhaps expect from her especially under the circumstances. And yes it probably is learned and used quite deliberately. First impressions make a huge difference to relationship, so using the right body language might well be crucial to that. Its well studied and well used.

An Illuminati symbol? No that's utter bollocks. A political language that is deliberate? Yes, highly likely.

I think any moves to curtail free EU movement is very very unlikely, because the rest of the EU love the opportunities it gives them, to find workers / to find jobs.
It is one of the advantages of the EU for ordinary people who are maybe a square peg in a round hole where they are, but can easily move for more opportunities.
Limiting EU movement would limit opportunities more to the higher income, higher skilled - hence unpopular.

However, requiring non-EU immigrants to show they have a job and can support themselves and their dependents is highly likely within 5-10 years, similar to the US "Green Card" system.
Possibly also being required to sign an agreed code of conduct / European values like I've heard suggested several times here.

To clarify, non-EU immigrants have always had to show this in Germany at least, but I think the EU is likely to stop countries inviting in refugees - like Merkel did - unless they can show they can support themselves and would fit in.

Possibly also being required to sign an agreed code of conduct / European values

Only vaguely related, but this thread is inspiring me to vote in the right-wing primaries for the French presidency this autumn - the left has no hope so the primary will basically decide the next President. Anyone can vote, all you have to do is swear that you share right-wing and centrist values. I think I can be creative with my "values" for the occasion...

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/david-davis-muddled-understanding-of-trade-policy/
LSE blogger on David Davies

Chalala "...you share right-wing and centrist values."

Given that the definition of "centrist" seems to be a moveable feast, I'm sure you can make the argument!

that's right prettybird, surely I'm centrist (maybe even right wing!) from someone's perspective :-)

interesting article Red, and worth pointing out that the author is from the University of Toronto and has advised Canada on trade deals. He has interesting point about the EU/Canada FTA.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36873439
Johnson's first week.
Its surprisingly gushing.