Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

The out voters don't have to be unhappy with the status who and decide to take a massive risk.

A lot of people didn't think their vote would count. Others thought everyone else would vote remain so they could protest by voting out, even if they didn't want anything to change.

Also look at general elections. The last time I remember huge enthusiasm about an election result (for the general public I saw, not the MPs!) was Blairs victory in 1997 which promised a change from the nasty and tired Tory party who'd been in for 18 years.

That change was illusory, as we now know and the common complaint about political parties is that they're all the same. The referendum was a chance to vote for something that said people fancied a change generally (don't know what to!) without many people expecting to get it.

Before the Scottish Independence Referendum, the Scottish Government/SNP produced a detailed "White Paper" outlining its plans for an independent Scotland.

Now while it had many flaws, not least of which being that the SNP might not be the party that would win the first election in an independent Scotland, but at least it was a start.

It got torn to shreds - sometimes justifiably, sometimes not so justifiably - and the "Better Together" campaign also made highly dubious statements (such as "the only way to guarantee staying in the EU is to vote No" ) - but oh that we'd had such a detailed vision in the Brexit campaign

Now off to read a selection of today's links

Good news about the republican congressman coming out for Hillary

The Koch network also said it would not find Trump

Fundraising results being announced for July, Hillary raised over $90M and Trump somewhere around $35M. Interestingly Hillary's average gift was lower than Trump's, which didn't stop him from saying that Hillary was only funded by a handful of wealthy donors who "owned" her - because who cares about facts, right.

Blogger Jack of Kent (who I believe is David allan green) thinks we should ask all the Brexiteers who say it will be easy, to have a go and try it:
jackofkent.com/2016/08/brexiteers-and-the-story-of-the-would-be-time-traveller/

The proof of the pudding etc... However this seems risky to me. Allowing people who believe it's simple to make a mess of it, allows for huge collateral damage to innocent citizens.

From the Blogger Jack article:
All the laws and regulations that apply by virtue of Britain’s membership can remain perfectly aligned with those of the rest of the EU until they may be changed at a later date. This is how the UK gave independence to the countries of the British empire.”

Almost certainly this is what would need to happen with a substantial number of laws, but I am just curious how this would play out with the 'Regain our Sovereignity' Brigade? Would this be a fudge they were happy with, or would they then realise that Sovereignity wasn't quite the big deal they thought?

Reuters Politics Verified account @ReutersPolitics
BREAKING: Donald Trump declines to endorse Paul Ryan and John McCain in their Republican primaries - Washington Post
I can't see that going down well.

He has also throw a baby out of a conference today.

He's upset the French President.
"His excesses make you want to retch, even in the United States, especially when as was Donald Trump's case he speaks ill of a soldier, of the memory of a soldier," Hollande told journalists in Paris.

I LOVE the story of the would be time traveller. Is May the Wise Adult talking to Johnson, Fox and Davies? Whilst I would like to believe that she is, I'm loosing faith over that one.

This is worth reading.
www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/martin-loughlin/the-end-of-avoidance

Oh I think the loughlin article may be subscribers only.

BTW I am starting to think that Trump was set up over the Khan Gold Star family row. I think that the Clinton campaign were betting on him reacting in a particular way (Clinton even remarked that he could be baited on twitter didn't she).

I think he under estimated what the Constitution of the USA means to Americans. It is the very soul of what they believe in.

I hope.

Brexit is NOT EASY.

This spoof 'Sam Cam's Diary' article, written before the referendum, is already looking strangely prophetic (apart from personnel differences). And chilling. For example:

"Angela says no discussions on Brexit until (Boris) “starts proper divorce proceedings”. David says we are done for either way. Start two-year clock and we have no leverage. Don’t start and the other countries will string us along while the economy bleeds."

If this damaging limbo was so obvious in May, how did the Leave campaign get away with making it seems so simple?

Well actually I think we know the answer to that.

infacts.org/sam-cams-brexit-diary/

Jeff Cunningham ‏@cunninghamjeff

This is from Hazlitt's Economics.
It explains everything that's wrong with the world

www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-supporters-dunning-kruger-effect-213904
The Dunning-Kruger Effect. Why you can be stupid and not know you are stupid. And how this might apply to Trump voters, Trump himself and of course our very own Brexiteers...

Otto English ‏@Otto_English 1m1 minute ago
Basically by registering 7 organisations as separate entities Arron Banks was able to increase his spend on Grassroots Out... 1/2

This meant that each "GO" outfit could spend up to £700,000 each in the run up to #Euref effectively circumventing campaigning rules.

Interesting page from Hazlitt, Red.

Do you think it deliberately says: 'the persistent tendency of MEN to see only ...'

...or is it just a typical use of sexist language?

I think the use of the word "men" here is in the old sense of "people", as in "mankind".

Also as in the Mackay quotation "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Almost certainly this is what would need to happen with a substantial number of laws, but I am just curious how this would play out with the 'Regain our Sovereignity' Brigade? Would this be a fudge they were happy with

I don't actually think they would care too much. I suspect it's not even the contents of the laws they objected to in many cases, it's the fact that they weren't their laws.

I also think Trump may have been set up. They know how he works - when criticised, he always responds with personal insults. So by having a Gold Star family criticise him, they were setting him up to insult the very kind of people Americans respect most.

I am not sure "set up" is how I see it but I did think using one muslim military family's personal grief in the way that the Democrats did was in poor taste. To that extent Trump may be reacting in the only sensible way given his central strategy of appealing to small "c" conservatism.

Worth bearing in mind that he was equally insulting to McCain and his war record and there is no love lost between the two.

I wonder if actually the Republicans are playing a double bluff. Leave Trump to sink or swim on his own (half of them think he is a Democrat in disguise) and highlight their opposition in order to maximise their chances of retaining the Senate.

Absolutely unbelieveable to hear people complaining about the Brexit campaign's creative use of the funding rules. The collective amnesia regarding the misuse of the "government" machine by the Remain side is astounding.

A wee bit of a vote of confidence in UK farming from Barclays highlighting their US/UK focus. From a couple of weeks back but arrived on my FB feed yesterday.

www.newsroom.barclays.com/r/3375/barclays_announces__100mn_fund_to_boost_uk_agriculture

I also think Trump may have been set up. They know how he works - when criticised, he always responds with personal insults. So by having a Gold Star family criticise him, they were setting him up to insult the very kind of people Americans respect most.

I'm not sure that "set up" is the right way to phrase it. Conventions are all about energising the base by baiting the other side: "Hillary for Prison 2016" etc. Individual politicians decide whether, and how, they respond to that baiting.

I don't think anyone expected that this would be the huge deal it has become: if it had been anticipated, Khizr Khan would have been scheduled at prime time. If Trump hadn't responded in the way he did, the Khan speech would have been seen only by the most dedicated followers of American politics. It became a worldwide story because of Trump's response, and in particular the insult directed at Mrs Khan, not because of the speech itself.

If this is being "set up", then perhaps he was also "set up" by the crying baby?

using one muslim military family's personal grief in the way that the Democrats did was in poor taste.

But by saying they were "used" you deny them their agency. It was the family's own choice. It was the way they chose to give meaning to their son's death, and they knew exactly what they were doing.

Trump's reaction was only "sensible" if he calculated that his electoral base's islamophobia is stronger than its respect for military families. Maybe that's correct, but I wouldn't count on it.

I'm not thinking the Democrats did this with the specific intent of having him lay into a grieving mother, more that they thought the familiy's message was powerful on its own - and if Trump found something to insult or belittle, as he usually does, this time there would be a serious backlash. So whether or not he lashed out, it was win/win for Hillary.

It became a worldwide story because of Trump's response, and in particular the insult directed at Mrs Khan, not because of the speech itself.

That's not quite true, it was already making headlines everywhere and the pocket constitution became an Amazon bestseller before Trump responded

But Trump's response amplified was was already a big story, for sure

Maybe "set up" isn't quite the right turn of phrase. "Baiting" may be more accurate, indeed. It was his choice to take the bait, or not.

The National's handy 50 point guide to Apocalypse Now

www.thenational.scot/news/50-things-you-need-to-know-about-brexit-but-were-afraid-to-ask.20692

It is the status of the Stornoway black pudding and whether it will be out competed by its stronger haggis cousins which is giving me most cause for concern

Strangely silent on the inconvenient poll showing Scots support for the Union has barely moved since Indyref1.

Chalala if you have a look at Google trends for "pocket constitution" you see an initial surge in searches then a plateau then another much larger spike following a Trump's response. It's hard to say what impact it would have had otherwise, but it certainly became a much bigger and much longer lasting story as a result of his inability to STFU. The Khans being feted by the media was directly as a result of Trump's reaction, which clearly provoked understandable righteous indignation on their part. It would have had zero impact on the Trump campaign if he had avoided taking the bait.

This is one of the responses to the use of military families by both campaigns from my US friends. I find it difficult to argue with.

ijr.com/2016/08/662959-how-to-respect-service-members-and-their-families-by-george-w-bush/

Some of the National's handy 50 point guide are not really all that serious, e.g. take:

42. TWINNING: Many towns and cities across the UK have town twinning arrangements with EU partners. The UK Government must say soon what will happen to these.

My own town has extensive twinning arrangements - most of which were set up in the 1960s before we were in the Common Market. Why should the Government need to say anything about them?