Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

amicissima yes I was obviously oversimplifying because the actual cause of the Leave vote was irrelevant to the point I was making.

howabout I too have issues with the decisions. But I think the problem was the national politicians in place and their views about "fiscal responsibility", rather than the process itself. You can take the most democratic system in the world, if its elected leaders are cheerleaders for austerity, the end result will still be shit.

uk.businessinsider.com/eu-officials-britain-brexit-theresa-may-2016-7
UK is not at all prepared for Brexit: it won't happen for a very long time as UK negotiators don't know what they want, they don't even know what the questions are, let alone the answers, when they come to talks.

Newsnight - both sides of the labour party have spoken to parliamentary officials to see what would happen in the event of a split, and to put their respective cases for being official opposition.

Also a source says that if Corbyn is reelected about 30 of the rebels will back down. Considering bringing back elections for shadow cabinet, but that needs NEC and conference approval.

Many hoping TM will call election.

Many hoping TM will call election.
At present, that sounds utterly stupid.

They seem to think it's the only way to break the deadlock, and if they are either going to lose their jobs at an election or be deselected for not being sufficiently loyal anyway, they don't have much to lose, seemed to be the basic reasoning.

In other news, the mirror reckons Ed Balls is going to be on strictly this year...

They seem to think it's the only way to break the deadlock,
I am as disgusted with them as I am with Cameron's stupidity in calling the Referendum. The country is in crisis and that is what they should be concentrating on.

But if they truly believe that JC is crap at opposing the government, as they seem to, then an election loss is the only way to get a fresh start and a functioning Labour Party doing its opposition job. It's a gamble because the Tories would likely increase their majority, but on the other hand there's already no meaningful opposition anyway so Labour doesn't have much to lose.

The alternative is wait 4 years under the "leadership" of JC, lose anyway, and keep a Tory government until at least 2025.

(from the PLP point of view, I mean. From JC's point of view the plan is to wait for the country to really go to shit in the next 4 years, giving him a fighting chance in the election. Neither his nor the PLP's plan feels me with warm fuzzy feelings tbh.)

In the context of discussions about shared and devolved democracy I think this article is quite interesting. It is talking about the impact of mitigating the bedroom tax in Glasgow and the wider impact on housing spending and policy when working within the confines of Westminster overarching.

www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2016/aug/02/overspend-bedroom-tax-glasgow-council-social-housing

The Guardian coverage is starting to look a bit more balanced today in terms of the Labour Leadership debate I think.

A rather sad but well-stated analysis of the referendum from an LSE economist here blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-aftermath-of-the-brexit-vote-a-verdict-from-those-of-those-experts-were-not-supposed-to-listen-to/

So JC is out rallying again:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/01/jeremy-corbyn-labour-liverpool-leadership-police-close-roads-crowds

And presumably again in Brighton today: (This event 'sold out')
www.jeremyforlabour.com/rally_jeremy_comes_to_brighton

Diane thinks it's not a cult of personality; and it's not going away:
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/02/leftwing-insurgencies-jeremy-corbyn-bernie-sanders-movement-neoliberalism?client=safari

I've always voted Labour and considered myself a socialist; and do agree with a lot of his policies, so why does his approach leave me cold and currently very disappointed? Has JC taken a calculated risk to leave behind the traditional voters and court young folk? Or maybe I am just not on the same page as everyone...

Thanks for the article Kaija. States a lot of my feelings better than I could.

Also, I find Diane Abbott and her straw man arguments incredibly irritating.

I've always voted Labour and considered myself a socialist; and do agree with a lot of his policies, so why does his approach leave me cold and currently very disappointed? Has JC taken a calculated risk to leave behind the traditional voters and court young folk? Or maybe I am just not on the same page as everyone...

I feel exactly the same. Do all parties think the baby boomers vote Tory?
No we don't but I am so tired of turning out to vote every time and NEVER getting what I voted for. At the very least I want to vote Labour and feel that there's a fighting chance of a Labour government getting into power regardless of what will inevitably be a Tory hold in this constituency. For that to happen it needs a convincing leader.

And yet DD thinks Corbyn is a leader to follow but she has a completely different perspective. She realised the Leave campaign would win when she drove out of London to here up the M1 and was shocked to see so many Leave signs along the way.

Thanks Kaija. Two parts stand out for me. And that the writer is leaving the UK.

"The public broadcaster failed a basic duty of care to the British people. There was a need to tell people the truth for probably the most important vote any of us will have in our lifetimes. And the BBC failed."

UKIP, UKIP, UKIP on every Question Time.

"We take decades debating and prevaricating on major infrastructure projects like Heathrow and Hinkley Point, yet are prepared to gamble with something even more important for our futures on a simple one-off in-out referendum."

Feel x 100 all over again.

I was looking up how to sand a floor the other day. Found a useful blog only to read that the writers (German, based in UK) had decided to leave because of Brexit.

the criticism of the BBC is also what stood out for me. The debate showed that mainstream "neutral" media are wholly unequipped to deal with the onslaught of post-truth politics that manipulates neutrality to its advantage. When someone publicly states a blatant lie or untruth, it's just not enough to report the untruth and add "however some people disagree".

I fear that the side who learnt most from Brexit is not the Democrats, but Trump. He is using every single move in the playbook, especially the shameless lies that still get reported and stick with the public. His latest one is warning that the election will be rigged. Oddly reminiscent of the Brexiteers' "take your own pen" paranoia. I can only assume it's part of a conscious strategy to make people feel even more disenfranchised and distrustful of the "establishment".

Van Reenen's article is interesting but as a fellow economics graduate, though not a currently practising academic, what struck me most was that it presented economics very much from the economics as science neo liberal point of view. Indeed for him this seems to be the only acceptable macroeconomic model.

It was therefore no surprise to find he is a Cambridge graduate with a special interest in econometrics and the empirical impact of incremental change. ( the FT did a series of articles a while back highlighting academic concerns at the lack of macro economic philosophical teaching in UK Universities atm esp Cambridge). Also no great surprise that he is en route to MIT, a move put in place long before the Brexit vote. His research and professional standing is largely based on recognition within the EU. He was a key economics adviser to the Blair government when the pseudo privatisation of the NHS began.

As a "Lexiter" I would say that but the lack of critique of what was the status quo and its defenders strikes me nonetheless.

Yes, the bbc's relentless false balance was incredibly frustrating. And I still can make no sense of ukip's wildly disproportionate appearances on Question Time etc.

I should think the Trump campaign will have been much encouraged by Brexit, and course the Leave campaign took their cue from Trump in the first place - see Arron Banks' comments: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-news-donald-trump-leave-eu-campaign-facts-dont-work-arron-banks-lies-referendum-a7111001.html

Grim state of affairs all round.

The threats of the election being rigged are also the starting Pinot for a literal call to arms if he doesn't win.

Now that he's raised it, how many of his supporters will just accept a loss and get over it already.

A few pro-Brexit points and how the Labour Leadership voters are under the microscope, but today's overall theme seems to be about transparency and breaking the rules.

It does have to be said that unless you subscribe to The Times, or have faith in the Daily Mail as a paragon of journalist credibility its difficult to find much Pro-Brexit stuff at all. Plus all the pro-Brexit stuff seems to be along the lines of it being 'easy', which frankly I do think is bloody dishonest. If it was easy, we would have a plan by now. Instead we still have no bloody idea and the three stooges look all set to have a turf war about it before we do anything at all.

Rees-Mogg has been at the 'its easy' stuff in the Times today. www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/brexit-britain/leaving-the-eu-may-feel-like-a-constitutional-headache-but-its-actually-quite-simple
Article 50 is easy, the royal prerogative is clear and the law is stable. he says, as well as saying its constitutionally simple.

Now, I can't read the article (so if anyone can I'd be interested as Rees-Mogg is the school prefect and knows a bit about our constitution. However from what I CAN read, I'm going, hmmmmm. As anyone who has been following David Allen Green about the legal status of Corbyn in the Labour leadership debate, when the word 'clear' is used when lawyers are involved, then perhaps its really not clear at all.

barristerblogger.com/2016/08/02/dont-worry-happy-ignore-doom-mongers-brexit-isnt-hard/
A response to David Allen Green's assertion that Brexit is difficult.

static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/t/5795e913725e254c7c8afa30/1469442330090/The+Case+for+the+%28interim%29+EEA+option+5.pdf
Adam Smith Institute. The Free Market Thinktank
Paper that suggests a EEA exit (possibly a step backwards with the intent to step back from that in the long term)

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-brexit-wont-mean-that-well-get-a-better-trade-deal-with-the-eu-bfhk9sfj3?shareToken=89fefc5dd1aea6290c3786381403b5b9
This is countered with how our trade relations where damaged by Brexit, which means that ultimately we are not in the good books to be able to get a better deal because of international relationships.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-election-jeremy-corbyn-owen-smith-signups-quarter-compliance-a7167636.html
A quarter of Labour party supporters for the election are under review.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/upto-50000-of-183000-registered-supporter-applicants-for-labour-leadership-election-ineligible-or-in-doubt_uk_579fbe4fe4b0459aae5e182d?3t7l9evlnaxj38fr
More on the above story. The breakdown is interesting

www.sub-scribe.co.uk/2016/08/click-clique-dont-understand-what-local.html
Local journalism. The click bait question.

www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/aug/02/what-the-daily-mail-and-sun-attacks-on-baroness-wheatcroft-betray?CMP=twt_gu
What the Daily Mail and Murdoch press are really saying. Pulling the wool over the eyes.

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-in-the-hands-of-the-unbelievers-eu-referendum-civil-servants-remain/
Pointing out how Brexit in now ultimately in the hands of civil servants who wanted to Remain to deliver

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea0ee624-573a-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.html#axzz4G5WTAa1y
The Three Brexiteers - the turf war

Jo Maugham QC
We know that Vote Leave intended to breach the Referendum spending limits. 1/3 (retweets an earlier tweet with an email from the leave campaign team)
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham

Doing so would likely amount to the commission of a criminal offence. 2/3
www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/vote-leave-donations?utm_term=.asO9YVMPe#.mhJ3n5zXD
He then suggests that Buzzfeed may have found something that points to this.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/30/britain-to-leverage-11bn-of-foreign-aid-to-build-new-trade-deals/
Whilst Priti Patel is all fired up to use her new department to use aid to help build new trade deals its pointed out that 'If foreign aid is "leveraged" to engineer a trade deal, it stops being aid.'
Mr David Allen Green points out further:
If @patel4witham and @DFID_UK do try to use aid to "leverage" non-aid purposes, they can expect their decisions to be challenged in court.
1994 Pergau Dam case on how it was unlawful to tie aid to non-aid purposes:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Foreign_and_Commonwealth_Affairs,_ex_p_World_Development_Movement_Ltd
@DFID_UK should be well aware of this.

The Department for Exiting the European Union has been given hour long oral question sessions in Parliament. The first is on Thursday 20 October

That'll be just before the High Court is due to hold hearing on a50 then (due 'no earlier than the third week in October')...

What is the betting of the timing of things ending up being over shadowed by the US election do you think? That's November 8th.

Whereas when Dubya got in the results were all fair and above board! Had Al Gore got his rightful Presidency it's highly unlikely that the world would be in the mess it's in now.

I was just checking to see if Rees-Mogg was a lawyer ( he's not) and read this, "At the 1997 general election, Rees-Mogg was the Tory candidate for the solidly Labour seat of Central Fife and attracted ridicule after canvassing a largely working-class neighbourhood with his nanny;[6]"

labourlist.org/2016/08/labour-leadership-hustings-dates-and-times/

Owen Smith and Jeremy Corbyn have agreed to take part in at least five hustings events around Britain in August and September.

Labour has published details of the following leadership debates although Smith hopes to arrange several more:

Cardiff: 7pm to 9.30pm Thursday 4 August
Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17 August
Birmingham: Thursday 18 August
Glasgow: Thursday 25 August
London: Thursday 1 September

Well I hope those hustings include the NW and NE of England as they are glaring in their omission. This is where traditional heartlands are supposed to be. I also notice they are all metropolitan centres with nothing provincial at all.

In the context of where UKIP intend to focus their attention...

I hope this is rectified because as it stands, its missing a huge point by both candidates.

are also the starting Pinot for a literal call to arms if he doesn't win.

Could be prescient. Pinot may be all we have left come November.

Well if it's the end of the world, Pinot could be worse. Shows the usual autocorrect!

I see that in the barristerblogger.com article the author has a long introduction slagging off the losing side. That's childish.

The rest of it is effectively saying that there's no proof that things will be difficult and so they won't necessarily be too difficult. I'm am not wholly wowed by this part of the argument.