Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Farming is safe in her hands

I have done my bit - I have planted a load of bee friendly annuals!

I can go one better. I volunteer with the DC at the local RSPB nature reserve and have planted bulbs, cleared the invasive non natives and built an insect hotel. Fantastic thing to do if you don't have your own garden.

Excellent New Statesman article about JC, vistaverde

Both the hard left and the hard right have been invested in paranoia and conspiracy theories for many years, classifying all who disagree with them - including any within their own party - as enemies.
They accept only their own "facts"

Naturally when people are "enemies" and "traitors", instead of just "opponents", then for many supporters this justifies or excuses savage harassment and threats of murder & rape.

The most dangerous at the moment are those who realised they can never take power on their own and so have taken over moribund mainstream parties:

• The French Front National is very unlikely to win a GE, but Trump may become a "Republican" President
• Labour accidentally let JC on their leadership ballot last year and they'll never let this chance slip - if Brexit causes a real economic crash, then they think many will vote Labour, regardless of its leader. So, it is in their interests to let the Tories do their worst, to have as much disaster & pain as possible

TM would have to be very brave indeed to break the pensions triple lock:
Pensioners VOTE

However, if there is to be TM's "living within our means" it would be fairer if this applies to all age groups
Guardian wading in, too:
www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/30/state-pension-triple-clock-doubts

cleared the invasive non natives

The things that have become acceptable post-Brexit.

I've started working and paying attention to my children again.

Still following the thread, but not obsessively scanning the news for Brexit news.

Pensioners VOTE

But we don't all vote Tory!

Doinit I was talking exclusively about Japanese knotweed etc but it just goes to demonstrate how easy it is for quotes to be taken out of context

But what about Dutch Elm Disease? That slaughtered our Elms. Now if we hadn't been in the EU, would this have happened?

No scrapping of the triple lock on pensions before 2020.

Fancy that. Most likely to be an election year. Cynical old me will not be voting Tory as a thank you.

You know how Steven Woolfe nearly couldn't run for ukip leader because he hadn't paid his fees? Well, today, he managed not to get his paperwork in by the noon deadline. He's claiming technical issues, says he submitted in time, they just weren't received.

So that's another thing going in front of their vetting panel.
I'm going to suggest now that they end up with farage again, because the rest of them just seem to stupid to be allowed out alone.

Or it's all a publicity stunt? Personally, I think he's just bottled it. Some hilarious moaning on Twitter about "the spirit of the law not the letter of the law should rule in Britain." What, like in, er, the EU?

So interesting to read those two Corbyn-related articles, coming from opposite viewpoints, straight after each other. Love this thread.

bathroom I'd put money on them ending up with Farage again. It's probably a good thing he hates Suzanne Evans so much as if she'd stood they would have a much more media friendly front.

medium.com/mosquito-ridge/labour-the-way-ahead-78d49d513a9f#.td9fkruyb
Paul Mason: Labour the way forward

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/moving-to-the-next-phase-of-the-british-far-right/?utm_content=buffer33030&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
London School of Economics on the Far Right in UK politics.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36936658
Muslims attend mass at the French church where the priest was killed.
Unfortunately this BBC article seems to have missed an important part of the story.

english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2016/07/31/French-Muslims-attend-mass-in-solidarity-refuse-burial-for-priest-killers.html
Al Arabiya are also reporting that Muslims are refusing to give the killers an Islamic burial saying it would 'taint' the burial site.

Al Arabiya English ‏@AlArabiya_Eng
#Breaking ISIS calls on its group members to carry out jihad in Russia

english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/07/31/Merkel-refugees-and-the-need-for-Arab-cultural-diplomacy-.html
Editorial piece by Al Arabiya on Merkel and cultural diplomacy

www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit
Regaining WTO status post-Brexit might also be difficult.

www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/theresa-mays-brexit-shake-whitehall-sending-%E2%80%9Cmixed-messages%E2%80%9D-eu
May sending 'mixed messages' to EU says the Civil Service Magazine website.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/14403/leaving-the-eu-customs-union-what-is-involved/
Stuff about the Custom Union.

Liam Fox is shit. He's just SHIT. And if not knowing the difference about custom unions and what his job role is isn't bad enough

www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/liam-fox-faces-questions-over-charity-he-set-up-to-help-mili?utm_term=.kfKRZ6V0#.cvy3lX2w
Then having a charity that seems really dodgy won't help either.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-lift-elevator-rescue-colorado-firefighters-us-election-2016-republican-party-a7164686.html
9 people stuck in a lift with Donald Trump.
Poor bastards.

I can't find the article again, but the Koch Network are refusing to support Trump, and also refusing to run anti-Hillary adverts.

This is in addition to the possibility of Mitt Romney supporting Johnson, and rumours of Jeb Bush maybe doing the same thing.

The Paul mason article appears to completely ignore the reason most of the PLP have given for their resignations - that JC is simply not carrying out the business of being an opposition - he won't meet MPs or civil servants, he doesn't impart his policies to his team and his fan club put purity ahead of power.

Unless he can deal with these issues somehow, I don't see how any grass roots social movement has a hope in hell of succeeding - at least until the Tory voting baby boomers have stopped voting Tory...,

Yy Unicorns. I used to rate Paul Mason when he was at the BBC, but no longer.

Tuesday's ukip meeting will be a good indication of whether Banks really intends to put his money where his mouth is, and set up his own party. Woolfe is his preferred candidate, so if he is excluded from the running for either one of his failings, Banks might carry out his threat to take his football home. Woolfe is also the chosen candidate for breitbart's editor, who has said he'll declare war on the party if Woolfe doesn't get to play.
If Woolfe is excluded and Banks takes them to court to overturn the decision, then I'd have to ask how real his threat to set up his own party is.

Apparently the favoured theory is that all Woolfe's problems can be laid at the door of Carswell, Evans and Neil Hamilton, who are all cooperating in an effort to thwart Banks.

Paul Mason has lost the plot. He's now completely incapable of seeing anything from outside the Corbyn bubble. At least Owen Jones can see the writing on the wall.

Pensioners VOTE
The Tories are interested only in those pensioners who vote Tory now - largely out of self-interest - and who may vote for another party if their triple lock pensions are endangered.

An unsustainable financial policy for the country, created by Cameron out of party political calculation

Are the country's finances in sufficient trouble for TM to drop this voters' bribe down to double lock ?
Or can there never be a national problem so severe that it trumps Tory party interests ?

JC will almost certainly win the Labour leadership election, but 2 of his former economic advisers joined all those think he can't win a GE:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/31/economic-advisers-jeremy-corbyn-cant-win-next-election-owen-smithh_

One of them is David Blanchflower (formerly on BoE monetary policy committee)
He said JC is “absolutely, completely unelectable” and that he's unable to form a strong opposition when the "economy appears to be going down very fast” after the vote to leave the EU.

The other is Oxford Uni Prof Simon Wren-Lewis, who has a really interesting blog on economics & politics:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.dee_

"My response is the same as any decent social scientist:
show me the evidence that this is what you are doing.....
What terrifies MPs, and me, is if this base gets delusions of idealism and grandeur, and saddles them with a leader who will lead the party into electoral irrelevance.

If you think those fears are wrong,
show me your evidence. Not your hopes, but a concrete and realisable plan.

What I see so far is largely a government that acts as if it was unopposed, or that provides its own internal opposition"

Blanchflower was so positive about Labour even in January:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/01/opposing-austerity-not-enough-labour-s-leaders-need-lessons-economics-fast

"Labour needs to focus on improving the well-being of the ordinary person on the Clapham (and other more northerly) omnibus(es)
....The Tory party is the party of the old and the past."

" this is a chance for Labour to get its retaliation in early and often"

I think many left-leaning economists and political analysts, who saw JC as a chance for a new direction, are now bitterly disappointed that under his "leadership", Labour never got in any effective retaliation.
So the Tories are being left to do just as they like.

Corbyn is very poor at attacking the Tories. His approach to PMQs demonstrates it: I quite liked the initial gambit of using questions from the public, but since he never followed up Cameron's 'answers' it lost its worth. I get the idea and appeal of a new kind of politics, but while he didn't need to snarl and ham it up, he did need to be persistent in following up by pointing out problems with Cameron's answer, or saying 'I notice the Prime Minister hasn't actually answered my question...' Instead it's as if he wasn't really listening or couldn't muster a response that wasn't fully scripted in advance. And the New Statesman makes the point that there ought to be many points on which to criticise the government right now - yet it's Theresa May making all the headway. So frustrating. But hey, we're a 'social movement' so what does it matter?

I never know with the Guardian's commentaries on Corbyn. I have had doubts ever since the first by-election, when their commentators were all doom and gloom: Labour's on the ropes, touch and go about a win, etc. and yet they won comfortably.

Having said that JC should be absolutely laying into TM. She is potentially very vulnerable with a working majority of 16 and the hard eurosceptic wing likely to give her a hard time.

I have been trying to work out what is really driving the Guardian and New Statesman anti JC stance in the context of criticism for me stumping up my £1.50 for the puzzles and to read Caitlin and Melanie in the Saturday Times and the discussions about Putin's infiltration of the Western media.
(Worth noting that the Standard and the Independent are owned by Lebedev who is a disaffected Russian oligarch).

I don't know enough about the Labour Party "establishment" to make a judgement but the tone has been so uniformly negative, with little in the way of factual support, from the start I tend to discount most of it.

I find it difficult to take seriously accusations based on "electability" when they talk in terms of reclaiming the centre. The disaffected non voters and the UKIP defectors are still being ignored. The LP will never win over a Tory. I also have trouble with the embedded narrative that all Baby boomers will always vote Tory. They didn't always.

On PMQs there was always little point in picking DC up on the facts because he never engaged with them and if he didn't like the Q no matter how many times anyone asked it he just answered a different one. AR and EM both had trouble with that. More often than not JC's approach was better at exposing this because by not engaging on DC's counter terms the non answering was more obvious.