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Brexit

Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/07/2016 16:34

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

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TheBathroomSink · 28/07/2016 19:23

I always assumed his 'secret plan to defeat Isis' was a nod to West Wing fans...

Although it's probably too much to hope he watched that.

SwedishEdith · 28/07/2016 19:31

Urgh Chalalala

Chalalala · 28/07/2016 19:42

Sorry actually I misspoke - he wants to torture terrorists, he only wants to kill their families. Phew. All good then.

Unicornsarelovely · 28/07/2016 19:57

I was talking about Trump with a friend from the US tonight. She read the Michael Moore article and expects trump will win because there just isn't much enthusiasm for Hillary (like the Owen smith photo). She's firmly democrat, and wanted Sanders as the candidate.

She's planning to campaign for Hillary so far as possible, but understands the party is already trying to gear up to take control of the senate and House of Representatives to give some checks on trump.

derxa · 28/07/2016 20:10

'The People's Army' - all very claigish. I dread to think what this means.
Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 20:44

Unfortunately Kipper Central really push that "People's Army" crap:

Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.
BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 20:49

That reminds me, this is how UKIP MEPs defended the rights of the UK from those nasty furrin laws:

Soon, the Tories will be able to give all women in the UK the right to be paid less than men for the same work.
Got to keep Britain competitive after Brexit, live within our means etc

Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.
Chalalala · 28/07/2016 20:55

DH has been saying for months that people underestimate how much Americans dislike Hillary. I used to think he was biased by his republican background, but now I'm not so sure

howabout · 28/07/2016 21:38

I am turning into an absolute anorak! According to wiki it was during the first Clinton presidency that the Congress turned Republican for the first time since 1955. Also the first time since the 19th century a Democrat President lost both houses while in office. Took the 2008 financial crisis to win them back.

I don't think this bodes well for Hillary's prospects with swing voters.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 21:41

Trump and Clinton have the highest net unfavourability ratings in the history or US presidential polling:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/

Trump seems even more disliked, since he's pissed off African Americans, Hispanics, women ....

Republican Presidents in recent history have always had to win a very high % of the white vote, especially white men, to get elected.
The barrier increases each GE, because of the % fall in white population

However, Trump in particular will need to really attract white men Wink

Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.
BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 21:42

New BMG poll on Labour Leadership
conducted 22-26 July shows:

75% of Labour supporters prefer JC as leader
57% of General Public prefer Smith.

However, that 75 % of Labour supporters reduces to 60% among those who voted Labour in 2015
i.e. those who no longer intend to vote Labour are less keen on JC

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/evening-standardbmg-polling-labour-supporters-back-corbyn-think-party-failing-opposition/

howabout · 28/07/2016 22:02

That graph made me wonder why Dukakis lost?

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 22:10

The Republicans got out their vote better

howabout · 28/07/2016 22:12

Interesting that Conservatives and UKIP prefer Owen Smith as their Opposition - not what DC would have you believe

prettybird · 28/07/2016 22:18

The 2000 relative positions are interesting: although Bush technically won, thanks to the "hanging chads" later checks showed that Gore had won. Too late though Sad

RedToothBrush · 28/07/2016 22:19

Tonights By-Elections

Five by-elections on Thursday 28th July 2016, four in England (two of which are in London) and one in Wales. In contrast to last week’s procession of mostly safe seats (although there was an unexpected Lib Dem gain in Northampton), today’s crop has something for everyone. There is a Labour defence in London where the party will be looking to see off the Lib Dem threat, and Labour also have clear opportunities to make gains in Newport, where the Lib Dems are defending their last seat on the council and a majority of one vote, and in Worcestershire where the Tories are defending a key marginal ward. The Conservatives are also in some trouble in their other defence in Cornwall, where they are under pressure from the Cornish nationalists. But first up today is a Lib Dem defence in South London which might not be as safe as it looks on paper…

CARSHALTON CENTRAL Lib Dem
Sutton council, South London; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Alan Salter, who had served since 2010. An accountant, his resignation came amid allegations of financial irregularities; Salter has since been arrested on suspicion of fraud by false representation, and police investigations are ongoing.

HARRINGAY Labour
Haringey council, North London

DROITWICH WEST Conservative
Wychavon council, Worcestershire

NEWLYN AND GOONHAVERN Conservative
Cornwall council

ST JULIANS Lib Dem
Newport council, South Wales

More Background here

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BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 22:35

re General Public preferring Owen Smith:

Do you really think ordinary Tory, Liberal, Green, uncommitted voters - not party members - deliberately choose the weakest Labour leader ?
Or do they choose the person they genuinely prefer ?

Politicians would of course choose their weakest opposition
e.g. the Tory Party believe they would do better in a GE with JC as Labour Leader, because he does so badly in polls vs their leader. Hence they hope he stays forever
If he polled well vs TM, they'd want him gone

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2016 22:40

In a future Tory Leadership contest, the General Public would probably also prefer a more centrist Tory candidate than that preferred by Tory supporters.

Supporters of any party - and especially its members / activists - tend to be much further from the political centre ground than most of the public.

Chalalala · 28/07/2016 22:40

It's true about the republicans relying more and more on a dwindling white male vote, but there are two problems: 1) the elections usually comes down to a handful of swing states, so it's the demographics of those particular states that matter rather than the demographics of the US as a whole 2) Obama was particularly successfully at getting the democratic vote out. The worry is that Hillary will not get similar numbers of people fired up and driving the numbers up.

RedToothBrush · 28/07/2016 22:55

www.independent.co.uk/news/people/bradley-cooper-was-at-the-democratic-national-convention-and-republicans-are-furious-a7159741.html
This is hilarious. Actor has different political views to what Republican film watchers think he should have and are outraged.

www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-koch-exclusive-idUSKCN1082N1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
Trump and the Koch Network (they don't appear to like him)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903904?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
Hinckley Point all set to go ahead... then the government have delayed a decision. Hmm. (EDF board not all happy about the approval then May needs time to give the final decision)

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-defends-its-right-to-a-nuclear-deterrent-in-face-of-us-aggression-a7159996.html
North Korea's top diplomat for US affairs has said Washington “crossed the red line” and effectively declared war by putting leader Kim Jong Un on its list of sanctioned individuals.

The United States and South Korea are due to conduct joint military exercises south of the Demilitarized Zone next month.

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SwedishEdith · 28/07/2016 23:10

From now on, at every chance they get, Trump opponents should just point leaf-blowers at Trump's hair ignoring the obvious security complications here

RedToothBrush · 28/07/2016 23:17

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects · 3m3 minutes ago

St Julians (Newport) result:
LDEM: 53.7% (+11.6)
LAB: 24.4% (-20.3)
UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
CON: 7.6% (-5.5)
PC: 4.0% (+4.0)
GRN: 1.4% (+1.4)
Lib Dems up, UKIP didn't stand previously but do well, Labour vote collapsing. Conservatives suffer

time.com/4429507/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-james-clapper-intelligence-briefings/?xid=time_socialflow_twitter
Clinton and Trump to get security briefings soon.

www.defenseone.com/politics/2016/07/imagine-russian-invasion-baltics-if-trump-were-president/130294/?oref=d-river
Fascinating piece about how Russia could invade the Baltics.
As in Ukraine in 2014, the campaign begins with a massing of conventional Russian forces, along with the use within Latvia of special forces, cyber operations, and propaganda and psychological operations designed to manipulate minority populations and inflame divisions inside the country, Shirreff explained.

It makes you seriously wonder about what the future holds...

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RedToothBrush · 28/07/2016 23:26

Harringay (Haringey) result:
LAB: 46.2% (+3.7)
LDEM: 33.6% (+3.7)
GRN: 14.3% (-2.3)
CON: 4.3% (-1.2)
UKIP: 1.6% (+1.6)

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Chalalala · 28/07/2016 23:28

Re: the Koch brothers, sadly the Supreme Court argument is an excellent reason for them to get involved.

The next President will probably get to appoint 2-4 justices. If Hillary gets to nominate, it means the balance will shift from conservative to progressive and there's a good chance they will reverse the Citizens United decision. That's the campaigns funding ruling that gives the Koch brothers and their network all their influence on American politics.

RedToothBrush · 28/07/2016 23:39

Carshalton C. (Sutton) result:
LDEM: 43.4% (+5.1)
CON: 36.9% (+11.6)
GRN: 7.3% (-0.3)
LAB: 6.1% (-3.1)
UKIP: 5.2% (-10.5)
CPA: 1.0% (-1.1)

That seems a very good result given the circumstances of the previous LD councillor. UKIP doing badly.

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