Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Interesting that the FSB (Russian intelligence service) have been hacking the US Democratic National Committee.
They do a lot of cyber attacks and Russia have had it in for Hillary at least since she declared their 2011 election was fraudulent

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/us/politics/spy-agency-consensus-grows-that-russia-hacked-dnc.html?ref=europe

N Korea endorses Trump < checks date. Not April 1st > Surreal

However, it continues the theme that the far left and the far right are cosying up to each other in several countries.
The extremists have a lot in common and are often indistinguishable if you don't know which they are.
I suspect the far left & right both attract the same type of person who likes authoritarianism and harsh measures

e.g. so many on the hard left still supporting fascist Russia; they must have noticed Russia is no longer communist or even left, surely

Donald Trump truly is a unifying figure

(among dictators)

Didn't he call for Kim Jong Un to be assassinated?

But he wants the US to withdraw from South Korea, so I guess that trumps everything else...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html
“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said, staring directly into the cameras during a news conference. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”

Extremists from the right and left have always recognised each other as kindred spirits - witness communist Russia, nazi Germany and fascist Italy starting out as allies. I guess in the end all non-democratic ideologies look a bit the same.

Sadly I can't see Trump open call to Russia really hurting him, as Red said earlier he knows saying something outrageous will get the media attention away from the Democratic convention

georgelakoff.com/2016/07/22/understanding-trump/
Telling analysis of Mr Fart

Great article, Red. It rings so true, and much of it is equally applicable to the Brexit debate.

I just watched yesterday's Democratic convention and they were relentlessly positive, barely even mentioned Trump. Hopefully they are learning something. I'm a bit worried they're making so much of Hillary's competence and qualifications though, given that this argument suggests that detail and policies are irrelevant in this sort of confrontation, and that the way forward is to put values front and centre.

In Brexit's rush to "take back sovereignty", we're letting the lunatics in the asylum Fox hand it to the corporations

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/27/sovereignty-corporations-liam-fox-eu?CMP=sharebtntw

I had arguments with people (both in real life and virtually) about the fact that the risk posed by TTIP wasn't from the EU (who wanted to ameliorate it) but from our "ruling" Conservative Party who want to grasp it with both greedy hands on behalf of their corporate friends

Its worth remembering that the Democrats tv viewing figures beat the Republicans so far. Trump needed to disrupt that (and he was just pissed off at it, as it makes him look a loser in some way).

Tonight, Obama and Biden are scheduled to talk about national security. (Irony)

He's certainly racked up the column inches today. He's making Republican's nervous. I seriously doubt he'll be thrown out of the Presidential race though. And there is another 3 months or so to go until the election, by which time the chances are this will be forgotten by people who want to vote for him.

time.com/4426818/donald-trump-julian-assange-vladimir-putin/?xid=tcoshare
Well that sounds positive

www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/07/27/by-november-russian-hackers-could-target-voting-machines/
As does the fact that Russia could rig the election, unless they unplug their computers.

'Melania Trump’s Website, Biography Have Disappeared From The Internet'

www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/melania-trump-biography-deleted_us_57990c1ae4b02d5d5ed3fed9

Some folk criticise the UK system of paper ballots as old-fashioned and cumbersome. Younger folk especially want online convenience
However, with the monitors from all the main parties watching the count, paper ballots are probably the safest, most reliable system.

Postal ballots need to be massively reduced though, down to the % of the 1960s - it is the gaping hole that allows some manipulation in our system.

We should revert to the previous principle of necessity (e.g. certificate form GP, or from employer if the voter has moved far away) rather than convenience, imo.
Consider move voting from Thursday to Saturday (double pay for counting & support staff) which would improve access for most voters.

Also, people posting off their ballots, before they have heard the final weeks of debate, is suitable only for those people who would vote for their chosen rosette on a pig, without bothering to listen to anyone else.

The Understanding Trump article is very insightful. It is also very amusing.

It manages to sell Trump as a "pragmatic conservative", the least scary kind . It also demonstrates why a certain amount of "socialism" is in the capitalist self interest and will therefore be defended by even the most "Laissez faire free marketeers", the scary kind . It therefore makes quite a sensible argument for voting Republican, especially with Trump in charge . It then goes on to talk about the prospect of the Republicans finally being able to get stuff done because they would be in charge of all the Offices of State - for many Americans this would be a good thing. Even the Democrats are very frustrated with Obama's inability to build bipartisan consensus for anything.

The central premise of the article is patriarchal social conservatism versus the progressive Worldview. The problem arises because it articulates very well why social conservatism appeals and has its merits and highlights all the contradictions of the progressive view (eg protecting individual freedoms by restricting the freedoms of others, divisiveness of special interest group politics). Even the central plank of his argument that the Democrat's message is rooted in empathy is problematic.

In order to vote Democrat you have to accept that because the powers that be are empathetic they know what is better for you and everyone else than you do and will act accordingly. This is a far more authoritarian message than the moderate "paternalistic" conservatism being sold by Trump. Therein lies the problem.

The fact that Clinton has been in Office for over 20 years already in one shape or form reinforces the flavour of authoritarianism. Bill's speech was striking. He sounded like a father handing power to his daughter by painting himself as the grandfather with Hillary as the energetic future. The juxtaposition with reality reinforced the impression of the subversion of the 2 term limit on the presidency by one spouse handing over to the other. The Obamas portraying themselves as a team made it even worse.

All the celebration of Hillary being a "woman" threw the difficulties of special interest politics into the spotlight. Bernie Sanders giving up his right to disagree is counterproductive because it feeds the impression of authoritarianism.

I am neither a Democrat nor a Republican and having lived and worked in the US I would say it is a mistake to try to define them in terms of Labour versus Conservative.

The author of the article purports to be a Democrat but I am not so sure

The problem arises because it articulates very well why social conservatism appeals and has its merits and highlights all the contradictions of the progressive view

Funny, that's not how I read it at all. I took it as a scathing indictment of the conservative worldview and deconstruction of the psychological mechanisms behind its appeal. The points about direct vs systemic causation and political correctness were particularly trenchant.

I am neither a Democrat nor a Republican and having lived and worked in the US I would say it is a mistake to try to define them in terms of Labour versus Conservative.

Agreed. The issues that separate Democrats from Republicans today are not the issues separating Labour from Tories - it's not economics, it's social issues like gun rights, abortion, death penalty, minority rights. With a dash of level of federal state intervention through social security.

Agree about postal ballots being highly risk - I know of at least one Leave postal voter who regretted their vote in the final week - Farage's poster. Anecdotal, I know, but I suspect there are more regrets in that direction than the other.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/28/boris-johnson-set-for-talks-with-french-foreign-minister?CMP=twt_gu
Johnson is off to France

Theresa May is off to Slovakia
I hope the RAF do an airmiles scheme. She's clocking them up.

www.itv.com/news/2016-07-28/lloyds-bank-to-cut-3-000-jobs-and-shut-200-branches/
Lloyds to axe lots of people.

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/07/brexit-media-continues-to-pretend-britain-is-booming-despite-job-losses-and-falling-wages/
But Britain is booming

The Lib Dems win another council seat:
Totnes (South Hams) result:
LDEM: 44.2% (+22.6)
GRN: 27.1% (-14.4)
IND: 21.3% (+21.3)
CON: 7.4% (-9.9)
Labour didn't stand.

order-order.com/2016/07/28/anti-farage-plot-to-keep-woolfe-off-ballot/
UKIP's leadership contest is turning into a cross between Labour and the Conservative by the look of it

www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-owen-smith-labour-leadership-dodgy-copy-theresa-may-smash-her-back-on-her-heels-a7159621.html
Owen Smith manages to pull off 'worse PR image than Corbyn'.
Its amazingly a fair point.

High Court judgement on whether Corbyn can be on the ballot, due at 2pm

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-turkey-coup-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-eu-jean-claude-juncker-syria-a7157411.html
Erdogan demands promised aid from EU over refugee deal.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/07/27/us/politics/trail-of-dnc-emails-russia-hacking.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0
The Russian trail behind the email hacking.
Its also worth pointing out the 4th Amendment:
The Fourth Amendment (Amendment IV) to the United States Constitution prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and requires any warrant to be judicially sanctioned and supported by probable cause. It is part of the Bill of Rights and was adopted in response to the abuse of the writ of assistance, a type of general search warrant issued by the British government and a major source of tension in pre-Revolutionary America.
There has been having a bit of trouble with this under the current administration, when it comes to domestic surveillance. Currently, the test for it is “reasonable expectation of privacy” under law.
There is a legally explanation here
Put this into context over what has happened with Trump, the WikiLeaks over the emails, and what Trump effectively says about Muslims. Not only is what he said yesterday, potentially treasonous but he's also showing an unhealthy disregard for the Constitution (of course you can't do something similar for the 2nd Amendment as that's un-American and un-patriotic).

It rather begs a question over the future of the US if Trump gets in. Just how authoritarian would he be? So I beg to differ on the authoritarian argument and how he is somehow less authoritarian than the Democrats. He is saying exactly this criticism: In order to vote Republican you have to accept that because the powers that be are empathetic they know what is better for you and everyone else than you do and will act accordingly. He said he wanted to some how 'register' Muslims on a database for craps sake! How is this 'less authoritarian'? Oh yes I know, its cos it not about white Christians

In keeping with that Understanding Trump article, people really should start calling Trump, the 'RussianFart' (UK version) or simply the 'Traitor' (US version) repeatedly like he calls Hillary Crooked.

Its actually a slow new day so far...
(I really shouldn't say things like that, should I?)

In keeping with that Understanding Trump article, people really should start calling Trump, the 'RussianFart' (UK version) or simply the 'Traitor' (US version) repeatedly like he calls Hillary Crooked

I agree with this. Or #AntiAmericanTrump

Yeah I also don't really get the Democrats = more authoritarian argument (in fact I didn't see it in the article?)

the Democrats want more federal state intervention, but that's coming from a democratically elected government following the rule of law. Trump wants more personal authority, and sees the law as an obstacle to his authority and power.

The Lib Dems win another council seat:

The wins mostly seem to be in areas where they have traditionally been strong, as though voters who deserted in 2015 are coming back to the fold.

I am not saying that all Democrats are authoritarian Chalalala. I was trying more to distil the suspicion that even PLP members in the UK seem to have that all socialists who believe in collectivism over individualism are at heart authoritarian communists. The US psyche is even more suspicious of the collective good hence the complete inability of the Democrats to make the case for tiny steps towards gun control. Matt Damon was on Andrew Marr on Sunday. Even he was having trouble contemplating any sort of reinterpretation of the 2nd Amendment.

The paradox is that individuals, especially the Liberal minded, only accept infringement on personal liberty if the social good conferred is tangible. Obama, the encumbent black President, talking about gun control while the news is full of stories about black men being shot by the government (in the form of the police) reinforces the impotence of empathy "the road to hell is paved with good intentions". The mess in the wake of his poor handling of the Arab spring, the Iraq withdrawal, Guantanamo bay, and Syria are further examples. Hillary is linked with all of this.

Coming back to the UK. Owen Smith is coming across so badly because he is selling socialism in an authoritarian manner. His central message is that he can impose socialism on the PLP where JC has failed because he has not shown enough "leadership" (ie authority)

If Hillary had brought Bernie onto her ticket she could have countered a lot of my criticisms. However she has instead picked someone who is just as much of a government insider as her.

In terms of Labour, Owen should have looked to Andy Burnham's conciliatory approach.

Does anyone think that UKIP is really only Farage, and that with him out of the way, their vote will crumble?

I agree with that Peregrina, The worry is how much will go to the BNP or worse if the LP don't get their act together. I think the Conservatives are doing quite well so far in looking like the Douglas Carswells have won the argument - not that he seems to agree just yet.

The US psyche is even more suspicious of the collective good hence the complete inability of the Democrats to make the case for tiny steps towards gun control.

From Jan
today.yougov.com/news/2016/01/11/poll-results-gun-control/
From Jun
edition.cnn.com/2016/06/20/politics/cnn-gun-poll/index.html

I think the majority are now in favour of stricter controls. The problem is who that majority are and how much influence they have, rather than the idea that democratic majorities are more important. The influence the NRA have is substantial.

I also note in the survey from Jan that a majority said that there could be more gun control without it violating the 2nd Amendment. Matt Damon might struggle to understand, but that does not necessarily make him a majority voice.

Yes I think that UKIP are very much in danger of that. They have never built from the bottom up, its all been top down personality cult.

If you look at the history of the BNP/UKIP neither party did anything BEFORE the 1997 election of Blair. The BNP had their first showing of getting a decent share of the vote that year. It does seem that the Labour Party moving towards the centre opened the door for the BNP.

The BNP and UKIP were widely felt to occupy the same part of the electorate for many years - roughly up about 18% I believe (though not all of this group voted of course and it was not spread evenly throughout the country). UKIP only started to become successful AFTER Farage became leader though they had existed prior to that. He was able to get the funding to put in a lot more candidates at GE and generally organise better than the BNP ever could.

But they still have failed to represent at local level and even get the candidates to do that. Which speaks absolute volumes to me tbh. The party of moaning bastards who like to blame everyone but have little willingness to put themselves on the line or have clue on how on how to implement beneficial change. They just like to dump that responsibility onto everyone else.

Policy isn't exactly their strong point.

The Totnes election is one Corbyn won't be moaning about the press not covering. According to the MP, Ben Bradshaw, the CLP is to blame for the loss:
Ben BradshawVerified account
‏@BenPBradshaw
Corbynites take over Totnes CLP choose ineligible candidate who runs as "Independent" & lose our only seat on South Hams council! Well done!

The rules are that a candidate has to have been a party member for 12 months in order to stand. Their chosen candidate was not, so could only stand as an independent, hence the Labour Party loss.