Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Katla isn't the only one that's rumbling.

I think there are three Icelandic volcanos that they have been keeping an eye on in the last couple of months. I was aware of it stirring just before the referendum, (I love Iceland) so it set me off on the whole doomsday scenario!

Hekla's magma chamber is apparently nearly full and its also overdo for an eruption. The worrying thing about Hekla, is it tends to go off with minimal warning unlike a lot of other volcanoes. This is particularly concerning as it has a lot of hikers on it these days who would be unable to get out of the area in time and 20 - 30 planes regularly fly over it (commercial airlines).

Apparently wars are more common when there are natural disasters too. I was reading this article in the Independent about researchers finding a correlation yesterday.

I firmly blame Putin for Iceland's volcanoes rumbling though. He is rumoured to be going on holiday fishing in Iceland at the moment! (I shit you not!) LOOK SEE! True Fact. Sort of.

Can I make up a conspiracy theory with this one please?!

Putin and Russia

I'm baffled by anyone progressive siding with such a fascist.
Is it habit from thinking of Russia as a centre of socialism when it was in the USSR ?
I gather Stalinists like Seamus Milne have never wavered in their devotion to Russia.

If you analyse serious news programs, broadsheet and journal articles, read UN and Amnesty Human Rights reports, it's pretty clear he is an opressive dictator. e.g.

www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/russian-federation/report-russian-federation/

Ffs, Putin funds the extreme right parties in Europe !
He supports them publicly
So he wants the extreme right to do well.
Why would anyone progressive in the UK / EU support those aims ?

Putin rules Russia as an kleptocracy and plutocracy, for the benefit of those oligarchsa dictatorship in which e.g. journalists are murdered, opponents are jailed.
Remember the slaughter against the Chechens and in Syria

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4295249.stm
www.amnesty.org/en/countries/europe-and-central-asia/russian-federation/report-russian-federation/

SwedishEdith - I am old enough to remember, when I was a student at St Andrews, actually planning on driving to Leuchars so that I would be in the kill zone rather than suffer the horrors of a nuclear winter.

I too remember Threads

The world seems to be getting scarier day by day.

@ Putin being in Iceland atm.

prettybird - that's grim. Maybe school kids need to be shown Threads and When the Wind Blows - I'm flailing around desperately now.

Saw a picture on Twitter of a Stalin poster or flag at a Momentum meeting. Here's John Pilger's site if anyone is interested.

johnpilger.com/articles/trump-and-clinton-censoring-the-unpalatable

I'm not sure that kids need to be scared anymore than they currently are. Terrorist drills I'm sure will start being part of school life soon enough.

I do believe that there is not a lot you can do about a nuclear attack, and the threat increasingly becomes that terrorists will get hold of the technology somehow. Indeed who is to say what has gone on at Incirlik in recent weeks.

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil
Clear from Republican & Democratic Conventions + likely protectionist bent of next Congress that TPP and TTIP are dead. End of post-WW2 era

Hmm. I wonder what the implications of this are for Brexit then.
It doesn't sound terribly promising in terms of NATO or trade does it?

It's good to see Threads referred to when the discussion takes an apocalyptic turn. I remember seeing that as a teenager on its original broadcast and it scared the life out of me.

On thing that struck me particularly with the realisation that the government were lying to us because they had not the slightest clue way was going to happen once the nuclear exchange had taken place.

the economic benefits of TTIP were dubious to say the least, at least for your average person

I gather that the objection to TPP are very similar - it supposedly puts the interests of multinationals first, at the expense of workers and consumers

it's that rare issue that unites Trump and Sanders in opposition. The climate is definitely not great to negotiate any sort of trade deal with the US.

In terms of NATO it entirely depends if Hillary or Trump is elected. She's an old school US interventionist, he's not

I too don't think there is much you can do about a nuclear attack (hence driving to a potential target rather than away, if the alarms had gone off ) but I do feel that, after a couple of decades of the risk decreasing, the risk had increased again And the thought of Trump in the White House only adds to that fear. (I was apprehensive about the idea of Reagan; Trump is a whole order of terror in comparison).

In a strange way, I wonder if Daesh/ISIS's campaign of fear might backfire. If they make it so random, then you might as well get on with life.

The challenge is getting the racists to realise it's not about Islam. That's just what ISIS want - to set the "West" against Islam and create a fear of "others", despite the fact ISIS kills even more Muslims than Westerners.

But all increases in instability - like the Brexit vote - help foment discord and create fertile breeding grounds for revolutionaries.

Jonathan Freedland on 'Trump doesn’t have to be Putin’s agent. It’s bad enough that he is a fan'.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/27/trump-putin-agent-fan-president-russia

Two egocentric, narcissistic bullies who are never wrong in charge of the Red Buttons

What on earth could go wrong?

Another perspective on the Armageddon / trade implications of a Trump presidency. Nomura recommending investment in East Asian defence equities :-( m.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1995657/hong-kong-risk-trump-presidency

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-the-honeymoon-will-be-short-if-may-can-t-tame-the-tory-right-a3305706.html
and
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/27/nick-clegg-parliament-vote-terms-deal-leave-eu-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
Clegg, Spokesman for Remain speaks.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-theresa-may-negotiations-eu-referendum-result-leave-europe-a7158516.html
Theresa May has said she has an “open mind” about the impending Brexit Negotiations.
Is it just me or is this code for 'we still have no fucking idea what we are doing'

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-referendum-theresa-may-prime-minister-liam-fox-disagreement-trouble-cabinet-split-a7158596.html
Theresa May disagreeing with Fox.

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/27/deutsche-bank-reveals-sharp-fall-profits-markets-await-eu-stress-tests?CMP=twt_gu
European banks not looking great.

www.bluenationreview.com/donald-encourages-russian-hacking-against-hillary-and-u-s/
Trump askes Russia on tv to hack Clinton (This could technically be classed as treason. No one will do bugger all about it though)

indy100.independent.co.uk/article/isis-recruitment-explained-in-5-maps-and-charts--byr7kQePIb
Foreign ISIS fighters in 5 charts.
There are a few crucial bits of information in this.
It states that:
On average, Isis joiners are young, single, with low access to resources or employment with which to start a family, and have a "slightly more than basic" understanding of Islam.
The high numbers of students, unemployed and blue collar workers.
with the report noting:
Local interventions could prevent the spread of radical ideology before it takes root. Motivations for foreign fighters are derived from highly specific local conditions, and so must the solutions
This is effectively exactly the same disillusioned post Brexit Britain we see now, but radicalised to an extreme in a violent way rather than a political way.
Noting here that over half had a 'basic' religious knowledge. As in they were not very religious in reality.

The worry here is therefore, that if Brexit goes tits up and doesn't deliver for the currently disadvantaged, particularly the young, then the spectre of ISIS recruitment growing, actually goes along hand in hand with a Brexit Britain failure...

More on Trump and Putin.

www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/07/vladimir_putin_has_a_plan_for_destroying_the_west_and_it_looks_a_lot_like.html

The Slate article from yesterday is also worth reading:
www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/07/the_dnc_hack_is_watergate_but_worse.html
Noting of course this is before Trump's comment today.

Of course at the moment its the Democratic conventions so saying something potentially treasonous in the middle of it, takes headlines from the Democrats and back to Trump. Trump wins again.

Interesting article (in French) on Barnier

http://www.euractiv.fr/section/all/news/barnier-battler-of-british-bankers-is-commissions-new-brexit-boss]]

I like the comment about his adversaries nick naming him "Monsieur Non" because of his intransigence.

Should be interesting.....

English version of the article....

http://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/barnier-battler-of-british-bankers-is-commissions-new-brexit-boss/

Interestingly, not a straight translation (for example, Monsieur Non becomes "charming bastard" )

I am finding the way these negotiations are shaping up quite interesting. All the EU side have offered respect for the process, and even the decision. Merkel made the point about the British being clever negotiators, Berners quoted as saying he enjoyed the tough negotiations with Osbourne on banking regulation (and anyone who learned any lessons at all from the banking crisis isn't arguing he was being intransigent rather than just tough on that). Good negotiators enjoy the iterative process of finding the solution that works best for all parties. You can be tough and still have the flexibility to see where the power is being played and the lines of least resistance that offer a way through. I actually think it might be the sort of game Boris enjoys with some decent civil servants giving him some backbone, and I think Theresa May, the school swot will get it too. But Monsieur Non and his sidekick Monsieur Oui to everything free market and libertarian? Dogma is the enemy of good negotiation.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/27/corbyn-ally-suggests-labour-could-form-pacts-with-parties-across-left?CMP=twt_gu
That progressive alliance gaining support with Corbynites.

Whilst Owen Smith comes up with a 20 point policy announcement

UK joint bottom real wage growth with Greece - since 2008

No wonder so many people are angry - UK real wages actually FELL more than 10%

Brexit warning from Frances O'Grady, general secretary of the TUC:

“Wages fell off the cliff after the financial crisis, and have barely begun to recover
People cannot afford another hit to their pay packets.

Working people must not foot the bill for a Brexit downturn in the way they did for the bankers’ crash."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-wages-drop-10-tuc-greece-recession-financial-crisis-brexit-a7157681.html

Crucial that Labour provide strong Parliamentary opposition to make sure the Tories don't deliver Brexit on the backs of those who've been hammered since 2008

Remember all the warnings at the 2015 election that if we voted Labour we'd end up like Greece.

Thanks for the article on Barnier

He's technically on the right but very well-respected on all sides

Given his reputation as an enemy of the City, I wonder if this is a sign that the EU will definitely try to shift Europe's financial centre away from London.

If it makes anyone feel better, Britain's negotiating skills are respected and feared - from what I read no one in Europe thinks this will be a piece of cake.

Yes and nearly all the time since 2008, the Tories have been in charge - delivering up Greece !

www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-trump-idUSKCN0YN35S
North Korea endorse Donald Trump.

Yes. This is real.