To feel really positive about leaving the EU... Continued

[Valentine2]

Hi all. I learnt excellent things on the last one. Please keep them coming. Xxx

[Peregrina]

The Tories can choose to follow the results of the EU referendum, but in doing so, they will likely have to relinquish power.

Could you explain more here? We lose Financial passporting, and we curb immigration, but what else?

Looking at the last few decades of British politics, political parties are more likely to ignore voters than relinquish power.
yes.

Personally I think May has been handled, or chosen to accept, a poisoned chalice, but I hope that she somehow can begin to unite the country because this is what is sorely needed at the moment.

[missmoon]

Regarding demographic change, I've seen some very detailed calculations to show that it would take around 4.5 years to overturn the referendum result just based on demographics (accounting for differential turnout etc.). And that's assuming that nobody changes their mind, so in practice there will probably be an anti-Brexit majority before any deal is concluded, and probably before the general election of 2020.

[MammouthTask]

Of course TM has been set up to fail!
That's also why she has been given the role (see my link up thread showing how women get the top job only when whoever gets the job is likely to fail.... And we had TWO women running fur the job!!)

[MammouthTask]

Interesting point te the increased number of EU Citizens who will get British citizenship and will be able to vote.

[Peregrina]

Aren't a lot of the EU citizens Irish, who were able to vote anyway?

[SnowBells]

Peregrina

Ireland is not No. 1 any longer.

Could you explain more here? We lose Financial passporting, and we curb immigration, but what else?

If the predictions are right, and Brexit leads to economic turmoil, any party who actually did it will not be voted in for quite some time, i.e. They will relinquish power.

It's one of the many reasons democratic third world countries find it hard to develop. To develop your country, some unpopular policies often have to be implemented. When the Heads of States do this, they are very likely to lose the next election to someone representing a more populist view.

[Peregrina]

If the predictions are right, and Brexit leads to economic turmoil, any party who actually did it will not be voted in for quite some time, i.e. They will relinquish power.

I can certainly see economic turmoil happening, and no, that's not me being negative, just a simple fact of so much having to change, which is destabilising. But then, Cameron's Government did a very good job of persuading the public that the economic crash of 2008 was all the fault of Labour, when in fact, it was the American sub-prime crisis which initiated it, so I am not entirely sure that the Party which did cause Brexit to be realised won't be able to pass the blame to someone else.

I worry about who power will be relinquished to? I see Arron Banks was calling for a new party to replace UKIP. It was on the BBC but the page seems to have moved now.

[SnowBells]

Peregrina

They always used to blame the EU in the past (hence, the vote), but with Brexit, they will lose that scapegoat.

[TheElementsSong]

but with Brexit, they will lose that scapegoat.

They will blame Remainers. They started on June 24: "Talking the country down, sneering, snobbish, elitist, not pulling together, bullying Leavers off the boards, nothing bad is happening, if anything bad does happen it would have happened anyway and it's all made up...". Look at every EURef thread including this one.

[Valentine2]

snowbells
That's something really positive then? May can keep postponing the trigger of article 50. And even if she does, it's still reversible till the end of two years so there are multiple points of resistance available to her.
I see you have stopped short of saying who in your opinion will this 2020 demographic vote for? I have no doubt. They won't vote ukip but who then? If you look at what's going around Corbyn right now? Do you think that's where we are potentially heading? It's not an anti Corbyn or pro Corbyn question. It's just an academic question.
My other question is how do you see the two main parties NOT putting "no BREXIT" on their election manifesto?

task
But your argument is opposite of what snowbell is saying. You say she is chosen to fail. If she ends up putting a stop to BREXIT till 2020 and the demographic changes mean BREXIT is rejected, she will be the one coming out successful from it and it's BoJo/Davis who are going to be made scapegoats (not that I have any sympathy from that permanent hair and humanity disaster of a foreign minister )?

[Valentine2]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-36873632?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

[GarlicStake]

Not sure if anybody's posted John Lanchester's long - and excellent - essay on social & economic divisions within England. He re-focuses the lens away from richer/poorer, intellectual/uneducated, to geographic divisions.

While this seems to reflect the more simplistic view that Brexit was a protest by the less privileged & less informed, it completely answers the seeming contradictions where wealthier areas voted Leave and poorer ones voted Remain.

I think he is right. I'm a Londoner who grew up in the Black Country, started my career in the North-East, and now live in a slowly dying provincial market town. I've seen this phenomenon throughout my life: Londoners' staggering ignorance of our country; provincial resentment towards the South-East.

www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-lanchester/brexit-blues

[MammouthTask]

ticgy from an outsider pov it is obvious that most of the British (English??) are leavers. In 20 years, I have never heard o e positive thing about the EU. The only thing that would have stopped that is the fact British people don't like big changes like this.

garlic that was a really interesting article. Thank you.
It summarised nicely a lot if what I think (apart from the fact there is no way I could gave expressed it as nicely!).
The really :(:( thing is the fact that the working class will be affected again...

[Valentine2]

garlic only just found time to read that article. It's very interesting. Thanks for that. One point I want to ask from you all: do you think it's the Norway option then? And, it's a scary scenario, but what in the world is the solution to the hatred brewing here now? We are highly unlikely to see a revival of the industries lost by this white working class. If the solution will make them even more angry, what is the solution to fight the heightened anger then?
And one last question from me is which of the two big parties do you see being more aligned to this lost white working class? In appearance it's Labour under Corbyn? But his MPs are classed as Blairites generally who was not hard left. It's looks to me that if we want to keep Scotland and Ireland here, we need to elect Labour then? There is literally no other logic forming in my mind after reading this article.
snowbell betrandrussel peregrina* and all other wise people around: what's your take on my questions?

[IPityThePontipines]

I think and frankly hope, that we will end up with a Norway type option.

As someone pointed out about the 2008 crisis, a bit of spin can camouflage most things, so it won't be too difficult to blather on about "sovereignty" while hoping people don't squint too closely at the figures.

As for the white working classes, they'll go back to being ignored. Sad but true.

As for Labour, unless there is some seismic shift, I think they've got too much ground to go in to be elected.