Why the Remain campaign was so weak?

[SnowBells]

I was speaking to DH about this last night. I couldn't understand why the Remain campaign didn't do a better job, really, and concentrated on London too much (London was never going to be "Leave" territory). I work in finance, and we repeatedly had politicians come in from both camps to debate why we should vote for either side. Everyone knows George Osbourne was at JP Morgan, alongside its CEO, telling employees that thousands of jobs would be at risk, if the UK voted leave.

I can't find one single account where they did anything similar with car manufacturers up north. They would be similarly affected. If we left the EU, their jobs would be at risk. The "Remain" campaign was too London-centric, too focused on white collar voters, when London was always going to be a clear win for "Remain". It made people in other regions think they wouldn't be affected. That they didn't count. Most people vote based on what they think will affect them. So you have to tell them as plainly as possible how leaving the EU may impact their lives. It's what some US politicians excel at whether you like them or not.

I thought that Cameron should have attacked BoJo's lies more. But then my DH pointed out they were both from the same party. There was no unity within the same party. And that's the problem. Had BoJo and Gove been from another party, I think Cameron would have not have held back. In some ways, attacking BoJo and Gove properly would also mean weakening your own party. So, it was a bit 'party over country' to be honest.

What do you think?

Good points Tiggy, I think there is something in what you say.

I think culture and identity are "elephants in the room."

(Let me admit, I wasn't born British and both me and my English husband live in London and voted remain.)

When you get outside of London, a lot of people, especially English people seem concerned about identity and group cohesion. There seems to be no way to reinforce and celebrate these things in a positive way because of very real concerns about racism, xenophobia, and othering. It's so taboo that we never even tackled it openly in the referendum debate. I feel a lot of people knew it was economically risky/stupid, but did it anyway. Feeling it was their last chance to fight against a tide that was sweeping away all the old norms, certainties and values.

In times of economic threat people do turn back to culture and identity. We've created a situation, particularly in England where this is nearly impossible to discuss. I think you have to accept human nature and find positive ways to channel it. Given how badly this sort of thing can explode when there is no release, a vote to exit the EU looks fairly benign compared to some of the historical alternatives.

However, if we could have convinced a lot of voters that "there would always be an England," we might not be exiting the EU.

"The govt wheeled out every bloody person they could think of - not just politicians, but business leaders, economists, even Barack Obama - to harangue us and tell us what to do."

Yeah, damn those pesky business leaders and economists giving us information to help us make an informed decision.............

I agree with Juneau.
If I hadn't researched for myself, and simply voted for the best campaign and assuming they weren't lying, I would have voted leave.
As it was I ignored the bickering schoolboys and made my own mind up. Not everyone will do that.

juneau

Well, obviously, I'm not British enough. My family worked hard and even though my grandparents on my mother's side were poor, they never were of the opinion that one shouldn't listen to people with intellect.

The opposite, in fact.

That's why most of their grandkids are now university-educated and in professional jobs!

"Explaining facts" is a bit tricky in this soundbite world, though.

'£350million to the NHS' is short, snappy, and fits on the side of a bus.

The 'fact' is, 'well, we don't actually pay that because of the rebate and some of it gets given back in funding to poorer areas of the UK and if we do this to the economy we're going to lose more than £350m a week which will make it tricky to fund the NHS and oh look, the guys selling you this have already argued for privatising the NHS'

No-one's going to listen to all that.

Okay, well my perspective is formed by a) the area I live in now (home counties, formerly London) and b) where I'm from (a rural area of England).

Around where I live now pretty much everyone voted Remain. Why? Because we did our homework. We're generally a well-educated bunch who are happy to live in a cosmopolitan and very mixed area, both in terms of country of origin and race. Many of us (inc. myself) are married to non-Brits. That's the norm here.

But where I'm from, which is one of those vast swathes of the country which were painted blue last Fri morning, its a very different story and most of my family and their friends voted Leave. Why? Because they like England the way its always been, they don't want to be dictated to by Eurocrats, and they don't want to be multi-cultural. They're happy the way they are, the way they've always been. The older generation remember Britain in the 1960s, before we joined the EEC, and they remember full employment and bustling high streets, which generations growing up now can only dream of.

Is it nostalgic and unrealistic? Yes! But Leave painted a picture of Britain getting its identity back, controlling its own laws, saying who can come here and how many and that is really appealing to many, many people. Some of them are xenophobic, yes, others are outright racists, but many of them are just Brits who want to feel that their govt is in control again. And for the older ones, they know we can survive outside the EU, because the Britain they grew up in was outside the EU and it was a fine and happy place.

Oh, also, when the biggest selling papers in the country are rabidly pro-Leave, it makes it a bit hard to have your voice heard. Let's not overlook that - the Mail has been running a non-fact based Leave campaign for 40+ years, that's a heck of a head start.

And for the older ones, they know we can survive outside the EU, because the Britain they grew up in was outside the EU and it was a fine and happy place

But it wasn't outside of the EU, because you can't be outside something that doesn't exist! Not comparable.

There's an article in the Spectator saying that the polling company Populus predicted a 10% lead for remain on referendum day which might have caused some remain voters not to bother to go out and vote as they thought it was a foregone conclusion.
Not sure if that's true or not.

But it wasn't outside of the EU, because you can't be outside something that doesn't exist! Not comparable.

True. But you try explaining that to a 60-something who is determined to vote Leave (I tried, btw, the 60-something being my DM, and made zero headway).

And I agree with the newspaper thing. The Mail, The Telegraph and The Sun were all pro-leave.

juneau, you put it better than I could.

In London, the economy has been roaring, not so much so in the shires. It's a lot easier to be optimistic, open, ready for change, etc. when you are doing well and feel secure. When you don't, suddenly identity and group identity seem much more important, it's all that you are left with.

I think the vote in some ways has been "a peasants' revolt." It isn't going to turn back the clock. It won't slow the world down.

It has, however, thrown Remainers in London into the same boat as the rest of the country. We are now feeling economically insecure; we now have to be flexible and face change; our assumptions about social norms and identity are being upended. We don't enjoy this either! We are getting a taste of how everyone else has been feeling.

I really hope we can find a way to go forward together.

For me, this sums it up.

From 2:43

There is a section of the country who are poor and this has become worse under the current government.
The design of current constituencies means that many people can't vote for who they want, rather they have a choice of maybe two parties who will get in no matter what.
Jeremy Corbin does not appeal to the traditional, core Labour voter.
We are living in a country where food banks are now everywhere - this in 2016.
The rise is support for UKIP at the last election shocked me.

On the referendum people were given a free vote, no constituencies and they want - or even need - change because they are poorer than they were a decade ago. They see workers from abroad in jobs that they could do.

The Remain campaign focused on the benefits of keeping the status quo, which for many is a hand to mouth existence.

The Leave campaign focused on making Britain great again although this is dubious in many ways and that's what a lot of people wanted.

I think a lot of people wanted change, they just didn't know what this particular change would look like in practice.

For me it's telling that London voted to remain while the rest of England voted to leave. MPs from all parties must get out of London more and see how the real world is for real people.

And no, this doesn't mean I'm a Brexiter. This is just what I see in my job every day.

I think too that a lot of people who aren't doing well just wanted to stick it to the establishment. They wanted to say a giant 'f you' to the govt, big business, the City, etc. If you don't have a lot to lose, why not? So trotting out lots of experts to tell them which way they should vote was like a red rag to a bull. Imagine you're an unemployed northerner in a former industrial town. Do you give a flying f what David Cameron thinks? Or the boss of some investment bank? Or an economist? Or Angela Merkel? None of them know the first thing about your life or how hard it is, so why should you care what they think or do what they tell you to?

Remain campaign were to complacent

Did anyone realise how out of touch so many people feel politicians are they certainly should have

Captain Brickbeard and Margrethe, exactly.

The Remain campaign was up against it for so many reasons. Having to defend a crappy status quo, and threaten worse - Project Fear versus Project Hope - when for lots of people it clearly couldn't get any worse. Whereas as Leave could sound new and exciting while also reassuring and an appeal to the good old days.

Also:

1. Thirty years of very, very Eurosceptic press plus Eurosceptic public
2. Nobody really understanding what the EU is or its benefits
3. Failure to communicate the symbolic meaning of the EU and its political ideals - nation-building in harmony. This probably wouldn't have worked anyway, as people in the UK don't all feel quite the same attachment to it as Europeans do.
4. And, lastly, a total failure to really quiz Leave on whether it had an exit plan or ask it specific questions about what 'leave Europe' MEANT.

This last is so frustrating. I naively assumed that Leave had a plan - that they knew what they would ask Brussels for even if they might not get it. But they never had. The campaign manager himself, Dominic Cummings, said openly, from the start, that they didn't.

'Creating an exit plan that makes senseand which all reasonable people could unite aroundseems an almost insuperable task.'

Cummings - the architect of Leave - actually thought people would never go for it because it was such a crazy leap in the dark. He was actually worried that people would ask hard questions, but they never did. Once he used the magic words 'EU' 'Billions' and 'NHS', they walked it. Think this has been shared here before but worth a look:

dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2015/06/23/on-the-referendum-6-exit-plans-and-a-second-referendum/

This was the big failure of Remain, to me - a failure to keep asking, over and over 'What is your plan?'

And lastly, most importantly, massive complacency on the part of people like me, who understood the benefits but didn't bother to campaign because I dislike political arguments. I now know better.

AnnaChronism yes, excellent point. I hope one bright side to this mess is that we start listening more, to everybody everywhere. Not just people who think just like we do. I'm certainly going to try

What it needed was someone to stand up and very clearly say 'this is what the EU has ever done for us', and explain why we were in it, what the point was, what money we got from it, what opportunities, what protection.... I'm not sure anyone quite did that in the barnstorming way that was required.

This is a really interesting thread. I completely agree with previous posters that it was all just far too negative, and remain missed a massive trick in the way they put there message across and the way they failed to engage anywhere apart from London.

I also think the media has one hell of a lot to answer for. For years the EU has been blamed for everything from cucumber shape to immigration by popular media, so 3 months is not exactly long to reverse that ( even if they wanted to.)

Even now, after the vote, they are running headlines about racial attacks on poles when there are less this year than last year - it feels like stirring up trouble to create a story and I worry that it will stir up more problems. Surely the headlines should be about working together, fixing this, what next.

I also believe that in the whole, people just are not engaged with politicians and politics in general, so were somewhat appealed to doing the opposite of what they were told to by those 'in charge'.

I believe that if the right heads get together and thrash out a plan then we can survive and bounce from this, but it won't be easy or pretty and London has to start engaging the rest of the UK.

Nobody really understanding what the EU is or its benefits
What it needed was someone to stand up and very clearly say 'this is what the EU has ever done for us'

Yes - but no government could ever realistically do that, because to admit the EU had been a Good Thing would be to admit that it had failed to adequately support and fund the UK. The EU was doing things that successive governments either couldn't or wouldn't. So the real, tangible benefits that the EU brought to Wales, the NE, etc, could never really be acknowledged let alone credited, feeding into the "what has the EU ever done for me" narrative.

London has to start engaging the rest of the UK.

Yes, good way to put it adagio.

It has felt like London is an independent city state. No need to deal with awkward provincials who don't agree and have a different agenda. There are 500M potential people to hire/work with, just send a few remittences back to the shires and be free.

Suddenly, it feels like London is the capital of a country again and we have been yanked back into line.

Seek - that's the point I was making. But the reason that the Remain Campaign - or rather, those Conservatives who were the most active and visible opposed to Labour who were invisible - couldn't articulate and promote many of the benefits was that, with the exception of the "big business" benefit, the rest of the benefits (workers' rights, environmental protection, consumer protection) are anathema to the Tories

to admit the EU had been a Good Thing would be to admit that it had failed to adequately support and fund the UK. The EU was doing things that successive governments either couldn't or wouldn't

This is a good point, but it was easily refuted from the Leave POV, because we all know that EU membership costs the UK billions of pounds each year. We get a chunk of it back (thanks to Margaret Thatcher, who negotiated the rebate), and we get huge amounts of business, grants, and inward investment off the bank of EU membership, but Leave's reply to that was that if we weren't paying all the money to the EU in the first place then it could be spent directly on projects within the UK.

Whether it ever would be spent on regenerating Barnsley, funding scientific research or the protection of British wetlands (to name but a few of the things the EU funds), is entirely another matter.

The EU was doing things that successive governments either couldn't or wouldn't. So the real, tangible benefits that the EU brought to Wales, the NE, etc, could never really be acknowledged let alone credited

Yes, good point. I think it's also true that people in poorer UK areas that received funding might not exactly like the idea of receiving 'charity' from the EU, either. After all, if they belong to a rich country, why should they? Kind of hard to answer.

It raises such a marked difference though between the way the UK sees Europe and how other countries do. I think the UK (up until last week anyway) saw Europe in a very pragmatic, transactional way - What do we put in/What do we get out. Like a bank, or other service.

For people growing up in a poor European country (like me!) it was so, so different. The EU was maybe more like a building society or community centre, but so much more than that. It represented hope, opportunity, investment - the promise that you would be taking for a while but only in order to help you get rich, and then you could become a net contributor again. Despite the recent disasters and their hard line, it has worked for my country and I can't imagine anyone voting Leave ever, in a million years.

There's also the political ideal. The fact of Germany, France and later Poland, all coming together to decide things for their mutual prosperity and benefit. Can you even imagine that, in 1945? Impossible. But it happened.

Now the EU is unique in the world, as a group of countries that help each other prosper, and hold each other accountable to standards of international law and democracy. That is why Turkey cannot enter, and won't until it becomes undemocratic. That is how the EU were able to block the far right in Austria from getting in. This is why the far right in Europe (Marine le Pen, the crazy Dutch guy) are rejoicing over Brexit.

This is the thing that is so precious. And this is what I'm so scared will be broken - years and years of patient diplomacy and goodwill. If the UK wants to leave, of course that's fine, though it will be missed. But the current delaying and prevaricating is so damaging to Europe's unity.

I know I sound mad but I am actually in tears as I write this. I feel so ashamed that I never saw this coming and didn't communicate how I feel about Europe before it was too late.

It will all be OK, I'm sure! I hope. The uncertainty is very difficult and I hope it all gets resolved soon.

Super article by Eric Beinhocker (Economist at Oxford, don't worry short and easy to read!)

www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/06/brexit-voters-self-interest/489350/?utm_source=atlfb

"The reason the Remain camp lost was that they didn’t understand the game they were playing. They thought they were playing a rational game, appealing to people’s pocketbooks and sense of security. They fought their campaign with facts and figures and by highlighting the risks of Brexit. But the voters were playing the Ultimatum Game. Leave understood this and fought with promises to “take back control.”"

Basically, people were so angry about not being treated fairly that they were willing to blow the whole economy up to get back at the people who seemed to be benefitting from the status quo, even if they had to hurt themselves in the process. We are wired to behave this way.