Human psychology, the referendum and the aftermath

[sorenofthejnaii]

It's fascinating. I wonder what the human psychologists are making of this.
How decisions were made and what influenced them. How much we justified them and then searched for data to justify them.

The role of soundbites to appeal to our view.
Looking at the same information but interpreting it relative to the views you hold.
Hindsight bias.
How people are reacting afterwards.

There must be a lot of people analysing the referendum and observing human behaviour afterwards. Social media must give a fascinating insight.

The Human zoo on R4 was fascinating in the run up to the referendum on how we humans behave.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b036tbly

This thread is interesting and I'm glad this is being discussed BY PEOPLE FROM BOTH sides in an intellectual way.

I've posted a little about this sentiment and idea last night and this morning, with regard to propaganda and psychological manipulation.

I was alarmed enough about it, before reading yesterday that Paul McKenna was actively involved with Arron Banks' Leave.Eu campaign strategy.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/eu-referendum-leave-hypnotist-paul-mckenna-nigel-farage

Its troubling.

Someone's already mentioned this article on this thread:
www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/donald-trump-politics-of-disgust

Read it THEN watch this Leave.eu video below. Its uses colour, visual stimulation, effects to voice and repetition to reinforce feelings of distrust in George Osborne to dehumanise him further and to condition anyone watching it to trust anything he says, even less. The video FEELS emotionally, visually and vocally jarring and uncomfortable. Its supposed to...

A very interesting article from Margrethe there

Have just watched a recording of that late night political discussion prog with Andrew Brillo-pad Neil, Portaloo and Alan Johnson. Their guest, historian David Starkey (whom I normally loathe) spoke on similar lines.

He said the Brexit vote came about not just because of austerity but that, owing to Labour's repositioning of itself to the middle, middle-right, since the Blair governments and the Tory govs preceding them, people felt deprived of fundamental choice. Hence the sticking up of two fingers to the establishment. (Or words to that effect.)

"Take back control"

Boris Johnson used that a lot. It must be very powerful to people who feel they've lost control. He used it a lot in the final debates.

The power of persuasion, language and the human mind.

the fact of the matter was that we were given an either or scenario. I voted remain on the basis that I wouldn't trust the likes of Borris, Michael Gove, David Icke Nigel Farage to cross the road on their own let alone trust them to provide leadership. Perhaps if we had managed to negotiate an option a bit like staying out of the Euro where we would have a limited membership then I think it wouldn't have polarised opinions so much.

I do not see myself on one side or the other

I voted remain but I can understand why people voted leave (and it really angers me that their intelligence is being questioned)

This is interesting analysis about why the areas such as Cornwall and Wales voted Leave.

www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit/

"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.

While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect. Farrage’s political strategy was to take seriously communities who’d otherwise been taken for granted for much of the past 50 years."

The questioning of intelligence is inflammatory and will cause further divides.

It will send people back to a child ego state right the way back to bring told off by a pig parent ego state teacher. Teacher's being in the group of graduates a proportion of the majority wanted to punish.

I hate it when David Starkey is right!

Destinysdaughter I read that too. It's like the 1980s Coal Not Dole slogan.

Destiny I think you have summed that up so well. I can say this with feeling I am Welsh living in England and the daughter of immigrants and could relate to both side of the argument.

As for questioning people's intelligence about why they voted the way they did someone in my office turned around and said " I voted remain because I want to be able to go to Spain on my holidays" this was a graduate bye the way.

It's seems pretty obvious that people want to be participants not supplicants.

Most opportunities in modern life aren't individual. To be productive, to show your talents, to live your best life, you have to be allowed on the "team." I think a lot of people outside London felt they couldn't even get a look in. It looked like a game they would never be able to participate in, so why not just toss the board up in the air?

For me, (yes a leave so take whatever from that), its not so much a question of mulling over the psychology of it, rather than the hell bent desire to continue the sweeping pidgeon holeing. Yesterday, a full week after the vote, the newsnight panel consisted totally of remain voters (including a union rep theyd managed to find who voted remain). One guest even repeated the words "all racists voted leave".

The issue with the aftermath, in my view, is that it is more important to reinforce the view that, remainers are nice, forward thinking, intelligent etc where leavers are the black heart we are ashamed of.

It is now MORE important to be seen to have voted remain because, no racists voted remain, all remain voters were well informed and intelligent, and well really, were just all round nice people.

If the telegraph are to be believed 42% of AB's voted leave. 58% Remain. From personal experience, Id agree with that stat. A lot of money has been made in the EU. Sure, as you then come down the 'classes' (what is britain without class/elitism?) the balance clearly swung the other way, but youre on a very fine line when there is a refusal to listen to EITHER side, due to the sweeping generalisms attached to the leave/remain vote. Id guess only remain voters are wearing safetypins at the moment?

As long as this message continues, sides will only continue to become deeper and deeper entrenched, and certainly, Teresa May wont become PM. The nation is divided but not in the convenient pidgeon holes both sides would wish.

its not so much a question of mulling over the psychology of it

I think that human pyschology is playing a massive part in the aftermath. I hope that our politicians recognise this and are able to pull the country together.

I fear this won't happen.

Not when youre basically asking the wrong question.... to find the wrong answer. Why have the pollsters been sooooo dramatically wrong this last year? Some unknown entity, psychology, mystic influence? Or should we be asking about the psychology of the pollsters?

I'd suggest the polls were wrong(-ish)* because of the complete lack of previous data to work on ,and a lack of info on how the demographics would break down.

This is a bit like the known unknowns/unknown unknowns thing... how do you make sure your sample is representative when you don't know what demographic factors are going to make a difference?
Normally, they correct for the 'shy Tory' effect, but how to know which side would be shy this time?
Normally, you could phone up voters and ask them how they voted last time vs how they would vote this time, and jig the results so your 'last time' lined up with the actual results, and then see how 'this time' panned out - not an option here.

We knew that phone polls were showing different results from online polls, that should've been a clue that all was not well.

*from a scientific point of view, the polls were pretty accurate for a sampling of a biological system, pointing to within 5% of 50:50. It's just that, politically, we needed better than that.

Today I was pleased our head of state isn't a politician.

Really interesting thread - I've been fascinated by the psychology & sociology of it all.

MN is a great way to see what people really think as well - no public veneer of respectability to see through, just raw thoughts protected by anonymity.

MN is a great way to see what people really think as well - no public veneer of respectability to see through, just raw thoughts protected by anonymity.

I definitely agree with that.

I find it disappointing that the direction social media took was twitter and fb rather than discussion forums. MN is one of the few well used ones that has enough users and enough traffic to make it useful. I know MN is criticised for being too middle class and too liberal left wing, but I do think the reality is much more representative than the stereotype suggests. There are more voices and more opinions than are credited.

One of the problems is that educated people on MN are more able to articulate points. It doesn't mean they are more right. So they can often shout down posters who are less able to articulate things.

I sincerely hope MN is still going strong for the next GE as we bloody need it.

I think a lot of people outside London felt they couldn't even get a look in. It looked like a game they would never be able to participate in, so why not just toss the board up in the air?

I think this comment is very accurate.

My view is that if you are looking for an underlying cause for the leave vote among people who objectively don't stand to benefit from it, you can do worse than look at increasing centralisation in British politics, and a failure of regional policy. It strikes me as significant that the two regions which voted to remain most strongly are devolved, and even in Wales, the leave majority was smaller than you might have predicted based in demographics alone.

Interesting point re devolution.

I would argue that Mumsnet is too well heeled and liberal to support Leave to an extent. Sadly, my feeling from these forums is a general feeling that the general UK population is seen as too dense to make such decisions.

There are a number of leftie Leavers however who stumble from thread to thread scratching their heads in wonder at this portrayal of Leavers as right wing racists and the EU as a progressive humanitarian force.

Us leftie cynics dislike the EU so much because we see it as the reverse. A distant capitalist project to create a superstate of diverse nations to the benefit of the richest ones.

One of the problems is that educated people on MN are more able to articulate points. It doesn't mean they are more right. So they can often shout down posters who are less able to articulate things.

Definitely - but that's what happens on a national level too.

Clever, articulate people can run rings round those that aren't - that's one of the factors in this massive protest against the status quo.

Last night I saw a promo on BBC 1 for a Panorama program where Adrian Childs is going to return to his homeland in the West Midlands to find out why voters chose leave.

I burst out in guffaws of laughter. It was presented as if he was Margret Mead or something venturing into the Heart of Darkness! I thought, Good Lord Man, London to Bromwich is about 130 miles on good, well paved motorways. Perhaps people in London should be explaining themselves to everyone else?

I would argue that MN is too well heeled and liberal to support Leave

In theory I see your point. But in practice there was a LOT of Leave support before the vote. And it wasn't just a few very vocal posters - did you see the 'straw poll: no reasons just in or out' thread? Overall it leaned towards Remain, but to far less of an extent than I'd have expected given the typical MN demographic.

I would argue that Mumsnet is too well heeled and liberal to support Leave to an extent. Sadly, my feeling from these forums is a general feeling that the general UK population is seen as too dense to make such decisions.

The voices were there though. I found they came across louder and stronger than the Remain camp. There was a shortage of really good Remain arguments. There was a lack of plan on the part of the Leave campaign, but remainers also didn't offer certain answers either. Which I found frustrating at times.

I agree that there was an unwillingness to acknowledge Lexit views too. It was much easier to argue against the UKIP views. It was unhelpful for debate overall to be honest. It stopped democratic conversation.

I also think that the last week of the campaign didn't help. Jo Cox's death was not good for the remain campaign as inevitably the agenda was shaped by the far right question - yet it was difficult to challenge that without being seen as using Jo Cox's death as political mileage. It also didn't help the left make the point about the EU not being progressive.

Personally whilst it might not necessarily be reflected on posts on here, it doesn't mean you are not getting the message out.

I've had many years on different forums, and one universal thing I've found from them is that people read and listen silently more than you think - even if they don't post in response or they wilfully ignore it when you make a good point (and they don't like being wrong!).

Keep talking. Even if it feels like you are talking to no one.

It's interesting watching the reaction to the referendum as well - especially from the press (although that's probably a different thread).

The language from some quarters is not the language that heals. You have to wonder what drives people to use such language.

I think whatever happens next has to be a healing process as well. If people who voted Remain are dismissed, then that is going to have a psychological effect and who knows where that might lead. Will there be subconscious punishing of people who they perceive to have voted Leave? Will there be a hardening of attitudes?

The human subconscious can react badly when people are dismissed. It's probably happened now with the referendum but the attitudes to Remain supporters may also lead to another reaction.