Has Boris been outmanoevered? Will someone please tell me who is in charge?

[RedToothBrush]

Thread two from

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

[noblegiraffe]

Oh, and as for blame for the Leave vote, has anyone noticed that the media narrative is firmly on Corbyn? Corbyn might have voted leave. Corbyn sabotaged the Labour In campaign. Corbyn stands alone as his cabinet deserts him.
Corbyn's support for remain might well have been a cold shower of shit, but 70% of Labour apparently voted Remain, unlike Cameron's 35% of Tories. (Poor remain campaign to blame is another one). However, neither of them drove around the country on a big red bus of Leave lies. Where's the Boris blame?

[RedToothBrush]

Osbourne is OUT of the leadership race.
He has declared he is not standing.

[LineyReborn]

Johnson also made some pretty shitty comments about Obama.

[DoinItFine]

After all, the Tories have gotten all their self-interested shit past the Council for the past 43 years.

No, they haven't.

For a start it hasn't been the Tories for 43 years.

And they haven't always got their way.

The UK have generally been a pain in everybody's backside, for decades.

But because they were in the EU, because they had a veto, everyone else had to do business with them.

Now they are voluntarily walking out the door.

Why do they need to do an EEA deal?

The UK needs that deal. But the EU does not.

27 member states will get to decide what happens next.

The chances of ANY deal within 2 years are low.

The chsnces of a plum EEA sweetheart deal are remote.

Vanishingly so if Boris is the lead negotiator.

He is still lying when he says this is on offer.

It is not.

[RiceCrispieTreats]

Where's the Boris blame?

There is none, because Boris is best pals with Paul Dacre.

Boris is a piece of shit who know that all you need is the media in your pocket, and then even a piece of shit can be made PM.

[MrsLupo]

OK, how's this for a face saver?

Been reading this, which got me thinking.

In the interests of democratic fairness to Scotland and NI, Westminster announces that the UK will no longer seek to leave the EU. However, in the interests of democratic fairness to Wales and England, a referendum will now be held on whether Wales and England wish to pursue independence from the UK. (I presume such a referendum would never be successful, not least because England would reject the symbolic loss of power inherent in being the breakaway country.)

Democratic accountability all round, Armageddon* stopped in its tracks, Mrs Lupo for PM.

(* as in Armageddon out of here, obviously)

[DoinItFine]

Indeed, noble.

The BBC's independence looking decidedly shaky around now.

Sky's coverage less biased in favour of government party.

[RiceCrispieTreats]

I was thinking (and arguing) all those same things until today, Doin.

But I guess today my cynicism has taken over.

Watch what Merkel is doing.

[PigletJohn]

giraffe

the two top jobs are Home Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Foreign sec is a top job but as it's only about foreigners and abroad, which nobody cares about, it is off the radar of the electorate, so is not a path to PM.

[DoinItFine]

The problem is that NI's largest party is in favour of repartitioning the island against the wishes of the electorate, and the GFA.

[DoinItFine]

I am watching what Merkel is doing.

She has the German population and 26 other heads of state she needs to keep happy.

Her softness never lasts long.

[noblegiraffe]

I've just been skimming an article in German about how the remaining countries now have to have a show of strength, to show that they are still united. Something about the refugee crisis, I think (my German is really rusty..) It concludes that the UK no longer belongs to the EU in their view and that they are united in the opinion that the Uk should get on with the formal exit.

[RiceCrispieTreats]

Her softness never lasts long.

But her level-headedness does.

Look.

My biggest fear in all this is the unmaking of the EU, as Brexit emboldens fascists and populists across Europe, and we know what fascism in Europe leads to. It's unthinkable.

So I understand the argument that an example needs be made of a Brexiting UK, by a sufficiently indignant EU 27 at this threat to a post-war peace project.

I also think it's a fine line. That pushing the UK too hard also plays in to the other populists' hands. And will also be avoided. Versailles 1919 was also a mistake, right?

[DoinItFine]

It's nothing like Versailles.

Germany didn't vote to lose WW1.

The UK have no grievance here. They chose this.

[MrsLupo]

Rice's point is that the harshness of Versailles paved the way for the conditions that gave rise to 1930s German fascism, and that it would be in everybody's interest not to revisit that.

[officerhinrika]

Glad to find the second thread.
I'm not feeling any less angry but feeling like I'm in some ridiculous political thriller film script. At least on here there's some fellow feeling.
And no, I don't want to get over it or move on yet, especially of that sentiment is written on face ache with a union flag or Winnie the Pooh as the background.
I'm a member of the Labour Party too, words fail me on the behaviour of Westminster MPs. Now was not the right moment.

[LineyReborn]

I agree that if the EU seems too punitive, it'll backfire spectacularly and play into the hands of anti-EU campaigners.

[DoinItFine]

How can you seem "too punitive" in acceding to the wishes of people who have just told you to go fuck yourself?

This is nothing like Versailles. At all.

The remaining 27 states would have to bend over backwards to give the UK what Boris is demanding.

They won't do that. Not all of them.

They will be conciliatory on matters like Scotland and Ireland.

But given how quickly they are seeking to move on and freeze the UK out, I can't see any reason to imagine they will soon be making advantageous deals with the man who called them Nazis.

[DoinItFine]

Now was definitely the right moment for Labour MPs.

Corbyn's was the strongest voice for immediate exit in Westminster.

They need to get rid of him and elect someone who is actually interested in championing the interests of the working classes and not being an ideological purist.

[Chalalala]

i think an EEA-type deal could be spinned to look like it satisfies everyone.

Boris would get to say Britain gets its sovereignty back, and a few cosmetic immigration concessions if he's lucky. in any normal situation it'd be an impossibly tough sell, but he'll be given an easy ride in his PR operation by the political class and by the press.

The EU would get to show its eurosceptics that there's very little to be gained by leaving (same costs, no rights, etc)

My sense from France and Germany is that it'd be unthinkable not to have a close free trade agreement with the UK, it's just a question of Britain realising there's no way around the conditions and they won't get a better deal than what they had. I don't think that the possibility of Britain choosing immigration controls over free trade is even on their mental radar.

[SybilEngineer]

I think the EU leaders are being complete arses to refuse informal talks with UK. It's the lives of 60+million people they're messing with. Those of us who voted remain have to deal with the fall out of our feckless politicians. EU should let us know what they'll agree to so we can have a second referendum.

[Globetrotter100]

I think you're right chalalala. Most of EU cannot comprehend what has happened here though, and the spectacular lack of international political awareness from a government that has "led" us to this point.

I think one of the main reasons for gbp and FTSE volatility is that the world views out people (collectively, I mean, through the vote outcome) and government as both illogical and incompetent. So all bets on logical anticipation of market movement and a non-suicidal EU exit deal are off!

[GingerIvy]

the EU gets a lot of money from the UK and I would think that it must have some impact on negotiations. They are going to make us pay as much as possible for everything they let us have.

[GingerIvy]

A second referendum would drag things out longer and they know it. I think we've been a real pain to the EU and this is their chance to change our terms to their benefit. I don't think they want things to remain as they are.

[RiceCrispieTreats]

How can you seem "too punitive" in acceding to the wishes of people who have just told you to go fuck yourself?

Because we are living in a post-fact age, where the populist press can spin any story it wants to whip up fear and nationalist sentiment. Case in point today. How else did the Conservative Party become slaves to UKIP?

Even on this thread, there are people talking about Juncker as if he's some kind of tyrant with any kind of power over them!

The story of the EU as a monolith out to get them, rather than as the deliberate choice to cooperate of 28 sovereign nations who vote through every single one of its laws together, has been well and truly sold.

In order to not give the toxic press and populists any more wind in their sales, there is a very fine line to tread now.