Article 50. A question for people who actually know what they're talking about.

[Surferjet]

Hearing a lot on social media that article 50 may never actually be triggered ( admittedly by people who haven't got a clue what they're talking about ) so any politicians/ people who really know their stuff - is that a possibility? ( even a remote one )

David Cameron was the lead in the Remain party. He's hardly going to invoke Article 50, is he?
Wait until we have a new leader and then they will invoke at a time that suits the UK. There is no hurry and no need to timetable it to suit the EU.

I'm not a politician but there are
a) many precedents for referenda not being implemented.
b) the EU can't kick us out.
c) there's no stomach in parliament to do it.

At the moment showing our MPs the consequences of the referendum and that are already happening m, reassuring them we'd support them if they didn't invoke Article 50 is worth doing.

Yes it is a possibility. At least a remote one. But I would say increasing in likelihood.

Now that the dust has settled a few things are clear that are very troubling for whomever triggers it. (Which they do by writing a letter, and signing it. They'd go down in history, no denying it.)

1/ The demographics of the vote, seen on [[http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/ Ashcroft's exit poll]].

2/ Spain seeking to jointly govern Gibraltar.

3/ Scotland independence referendum.

4/ North of Ireland peace process/ NI-ROI border.

5/ To quote Bill Clinton, 'it's the economy, stupid.'

It's 100% possible, but only around 10% likely I would say.

More likely is that it is invoked, but on the basis that we end up as EFTA members in much the same position as we are in now (free movement of labour, free trade), just a slightly lower payment and no benefits (welfare) at all for EU migrants.

If that happens, then the pound goes back up, shares go back up, but around half of Leave voters will be annoyed that there are still lots of Polish willing to work for minimum wage....

It's definitely possible. But politically incredibly difficult.