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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 08:00

Merkel said that she wants our exit wrapped up swiftly in case there is a DOMINO EFFECT amongt some of the other member countries. Why would that be, if everything is hunky-dory in the club?

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 08:05

We don't have to invoke anything now. Preparations are allowed to take up to 2 years, so let's use that time. You cant unpack the furniture if you havent loaded it in the first place.

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:05

Lots of other members states are also seeing a rise in far right and fascist groups like ukip so I think there does need to be some worry from the FMs of those states
They want is out
If we don't invoke article 50 they will find another way
The morons have won it seems
They believed the chest beating hyperbole of farage et al
Saw a thread this morning going about how Britain is great because we say "fuck you"
I despair
I really do

Elendon · 26/06/2016 08:06

Cameron has certainly handed the poisoned chalice to the next leader of the party. Standing for leadership will have more risks to it than positives, in terms of political ambitions.

Remember the referendum is advisory. Article 50 has not been implemented immediately and a summer of uncertainty beckons.

Also, BoatyMcBoatface was the nations favourite for a boat that was to help scientists monitor the fragile and increasingly perilous Arctic. The name was rejected and the boat is accompanying a leisure cruiser for the rich and elite round the Canadian Arctic archipelago this summer.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 08:08

Its in the interests of the EU to pick over the carcass of the British finance sector. It would bring in a lot of much needed money to settle their own problems and unrest.

WhatsGoingOnEh · 26/06/2016 08:09

DianaRoss -- preparations are allowed to take 2 years? Really? I thought that the post-Article 50 negotiations were allowed to take 2 years.

We can't proceed as if nothing happened. The EU won't want the UK at every meeting from now on (like what's happening this week, when DC is excluded from EU talks).

We have to take gardening leave, basically.

Which is why the Leave side really, really needed to have had a plan in place.

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 08:10

Hopefully we are looking at BrexyMcBrexface. Seemed like a ribald protest at the time, but it was never actually going to happen.

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 08:11

Merkel said that she wants our exit wrapped up swiftly

She is now saying don't rush it according to the bbc.

LadyStarkOfWinterfell · 26/06/2016 08:19

This is a brilliant thread! Thank you for being so clever

IpanemaChica · 26/06/2016 08:23

I read Nick Cohen's article last night and agreed with every word. I don't know how Johnson and Gove sleep at night. I can see exactly why Cameron has chucked it back at them - well you wanted this, so you deal with it!

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 08:23

It's not up to Merkel - this referendum doesn't mean we are actually committed to leaving the EU afaik, it's shown that is what a narrow majority of those who voted would like to happen but it takes politicians to enact that and TBH I really can't see any of them actually dating to press the big red button. I may of course be wrong...

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 08:23

*daring

Marmitelover55 · 26/06/2016 08:26

Great thread Smile. How about Johnson comes clean and admits he made a mistake and he doesn't want to Brexit after all and it was all a pack of lies, thus triggering a GE or second referendum. Yes it would be political suicide but maybe better than the poisoned chalice....?

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:26

I hope you right BUT that will make a large % of the population angry which will in turn mean ukip makes big gains in a GE
A price worth paying?
I don't know

kittybiscuits · 26/06/2016 08:27

Boris knows he has to open pass the parcel and he is fully aware that under the next layer is a ton of exploding shit. He has been outmanoeuvred. Big risk when dealing with a psychopath.

Dozer · 26/06/2016 08:27

The Sunday Times today refers to Boris and Gove as a "dream team". Hmm

Dozer · 26/06/2016 08:28

What is your evidence that boris is a psychopath kitty?

kittybiscuits · 26/06/2016 08:28

That's beyond funny Dozer.

iisme · 26/06/2016 08:28

If we do stay in the EU, it is going to be in a much weaker position. The EU can make it hard for us and I think they will. The single overriding concern of the EU right now is to make it clear to other member states that they really, really don't want to leave. Best case for the EU: 1) the UK realise they don't want to leave after all and stay but lose a lot of their existing privileges and look like totally fools; 2) the UK leave, are let in the EEA and have to abide by EU regs anyway and lose their voice and get s shit deal on other things. Trade with the U.K. Is important to the EU, but not as important as persuading other EU members that leaving is a bad idea. Not sure how Scotland will play into this - the EU may feel that supporting Scotland towards independence is another way to make leaving the EU look dangerous and uninviting to EU members.

On the other hand, the EU might disintegrate and all bets are off. Fascism rises across Europe, political agreements and solidarity have no vehicle. We're all fucked.

Potentially a return to the troubles in Ireland, with shit-stirring about reunification, huge psychological damage caused by closing the border, or even discussion about closure the border, and the Good Friday agreement now legally invalid.

Don't care about Gibraltar that much - it probably should go back to Spain (sorry Gibraltar).

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 08:29

More like night terrors.

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 08:30

It's not up to Merkel

Of course it isn't. But the rhetoric is changing. It indicates to me that there are huge things going on behind the scenes.

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 08:32

Can we keep this can we keep this thread fun?

Who is on Andrew Marr this morning? Who dares?

kittybiscuits · 26/06/2016 08:32

I didn't say Boris is a psychopath.

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 08:34

Hillary Benn.

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:34

Don't know primal but I'm watching!
Anyone else think this is all worrying like an episode of "in the thick of it"
Grin
Bet there is some Malcolm tucker-esqe swearing going on behind the scenes!!
Wink

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