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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
8
LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 08:38

Yes, I'm reminded of the Ben Swain Newsnight interview, Badders.

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 08:40

That Nick Cohen article is excellent. Might be the first time those words have ever come out of my mouth Grin.

This referendum has certainly produced some strange alliances ..

Hamishandthefoxes · 26/06/2016 08:42

Heidi Alexander has just resigned from the Shadow cabinet to push Corbyn.

I think whoever takes over the Tory leadership will have to call a GE sharpish - especially with the recent history of Brown bottling it in 2007. I kind of hope it's Johnson. I think he is a repellent, vicious and totally unprincipled man, but I want him to be the one to say 'oh gosh, sorry yah, I made s boo-boo so we're staying in Europe without the veto. Euro may be coming shortly. Toodle-oo.'

While I dislike UKIP intensely, I think they or some Labour Party which recognises the concerns of the less BNP supporting kippers, should be properly represented st Westminster.

This whole disaster has been caused by inept politicians blaming the EU for their own decisions and failings - there is a lot which can be done within EU law to limit migration - all governments chose not to because it is easier for businesses to import capable workers than yo train people in this country. This needs to be addressed and k hope Labour step up and remember what they're for.

NigellasGuest · 26/06/2016 08:43

Half the shadow cabinet could resign today, it's being said on BBC

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:43

Yep.....Hmm

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:48

Arguably the tories caused this divide themselves
Years and years of eye rolling at the EU - refusing to sign treaties til we get "special treatment"
Then all of sudden the realisation that we are much better off in Europe and widespread panic
The EU just want us to - in the words of the great Malcolm tucker - fuck the fuck off

MantaRayBay · 26/06/2016 08:48

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:49

French lady on bbc news:
Boris Johnson "the clown who would be King"

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 08:51

Bet there is some Malcolm tucker-esqe swearing going on behind the scenes!!

Most important thing I learnt doing media studies?
Don't just listen to what is being said. Listen to what's NOT being said. Silence is a very loud noise.

Funnily enough, FB virals going around are overwhelming pro rather than anti corbyn.

It does beg the question just how much of a workers revolution is this, and whether Corbyn could survive if the party do move left.

I think the answer is more than peope give him credit for.

gets the popcorn

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 08:53

How do they actually go about getting rid of a Labour leader - it's not as easy for MPs to boot their leader out as it is for the Tories, is it? Who will they get to take over? Hillary Benn is the only one I can think of at the moment.

Dumdedumdedum · 26/06/2016 08:56

Bollards, I wrote a long boring post about Article 50 but have managed to delete it in preview. Anyhow, this is the link to the original Grauniad Comment, which I think someone asked for earlier.
Am really enjoying the discussion on this thread, thank you for starting it, OP.

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 08:59

I think he could well survive
God knows who would sit in his cabinet though....
What would happen if he couldn't actually form a cabinet?

Dumdedumdedum · 26/06/2016 09:00

This whole disaster has been caused by inept politicians blaming the EU for their own decisions and failings - there is a lot which can be done within EU law to limit migration - all governments chose not to because it is easier for businesses to import capable workers than to train people in this country.

This^^ Also, Cameron's hubris in following up his manifesto promise of a Referendum on the EU.

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 09:01

God I LOVE Andrew mart Smile

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 09:07

Marr even Blush

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 09:10

I started another thread, but perhaps it's best off here (didn't see this thread previously, sorry!).

Nicky Morgan and Stephen Crabb have both signalled an interest in leadership of Tory party.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36632157

ApocalypseSlough · 26/06/2016 09:11

Wise words Dumde

InShockReally · 26/06/2016 09:18

On the other hand, the EU might disintegrate and all bets are off. Fascism rises across Europe, political agreements and solidarity have no vehicle. We're all fucked.

Not to be too doom and gloom, but this scenario has been playing on my mind and scares the shit out for me, because there have been warning signs for years across various bits of Europe and now hugely here too.

Education is failing us, people are disenfranchised, the wealth gap is widening; it's a ripe atmosphere for charismatic leaders to whip up hatred and gain power. I bet that 99% of German citizens in the 1930s couldn't see it coming either.

We tend to talk of "the nazis" like they were this evil group of people who just randomly appeared and murdered everyone horribly - and use it as a phrase to win/lose arguments on the Internet. But it was a real movement that started small, took over, and then was mostly just ordinary citizens swept along, forced, or manipulated in for the ride.

As previous posters have said, that's partly why the EU is so important. Way beyond money.

Dumdedumdedum · 26/06/2016 09:20

Aha - found this, which I find interesting in the light of the many commentators saying that the invocation of Article 50 is irreversible for the UK:

"Can Brits change their mind at the last minute?

“Article 50 is silent about the possibility or the interdiction for a member state, after having notified a decision to withdraw, to change its mind,” notes Jean-Claude Piris, who lead the Council’s legal services 1988-2010. Eventually the EU courts would have to decide."
From: Politico.

MadSprocker · 26/06/2016 09:28

Nicola Sturgeon is on Andrew Marr now.

I really wanted someone on there to mention George Osborne.

PhilPhilConnors · 26/06/2016 09:37

Inshock, that's what's worrying me.
I've seen an increase in open racism on Twitter this weekend and photos of BNP types grouping together to intimidate.

I live in a small town with a largely ageing, 100% white population, only one immigrant family. People have voted against immigration. We don't want them Turks rushing in do we? Confused
I can see how we could easily drift into that scenario.

Hamishandthefoxes · 26/06/2016 09:39

Nicola Sturgeon is on CBBC too at the moment! I'm impressed that she's out there, although perhaps not everywhere....

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 09:42

Education is failing us

Whilst I am very worried about the above same things re 1930s, I do think this is one thing that is wrong.

Education DID NOT fail us. Quite the reverse. Its just we didn't have enough of it.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 09:46

Andrew Marr:
"So where is the chancellor?"
"So when do you think we will see him next?"

Grin

He asked, not just once but twice for good measure.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 09:49

Regarding the racism incidents, this is why the current government needs to actually step up and say something to cam people down and deter racism and hate speech. I have been really disappointed in Cameron since this vote, as he's basically stepped outside Number 10 and said "it's not my fault, I didn't want this, so I'm not going to play ball with this." Utterly irresponsible behaviour on his part. He is PM at the moment, and he needs to step up to the plate here.

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