Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

[CommanderShepard]

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

I do also hope we can start writing to MP's in protest (meanwhile waiting for the fan in Westminster to begin). I think under 18's could send letter like this too!

fan=fun FFS!!!!

Jeremy Corbyn sacks Hilary Benn from shadow cabinet... Just

What's going to happen to ireland's border?

I desperately want us to find some way out of this, but I don't see how it can happen.

Anything could happen.

Just thinking out loud:

• BoJo keeps on playing cricket to skirt the issue until he's elected leader and takes over the premiership. He continues to skirt the issue forever, pretending that he's "consulting" various trade partners to assess what kind of a deal he'd get, until the referendum is just sort of forgotten. Downside: UKIP and Britain First make huge gains at following general election, on the justifiable platform that Leave voters were robbed.

• Theresa May is elected leader. As she was Remain, she says she cannot trigger Article 50, and calls a general election instead. UKIP makes huge gains, but splits the Conservative vote, so a coalition of LibDems?Labour?Green?Conservative comes to power, on a Remain platform.

• Cameron shocks us all by triggering Article 50 at the next Council meeting. Theresa May is elected as leader, and calls GE because she cannot lead these negotiations in good conscience.

• Someone triggers Article 50, whether Cameron or next leader. The negotiated exit deal is unacceptable to the government. Government cannot accept exit deal, and so resigns since it also cannot fulfill the referendum requirement. A general election is called and is won by a coalition of Remainers. They negotiate some kind of deal a la Switzerland, and this time the negotiations are acceptable because enough time has passed, populists in France, Netherlands and Hungary have miraculously been pacified, and it's not Conservative Leavers doing the negotiating.

• EU lawyers make tenuous claim that they can use Article 48 to boot UK out as a treaty amendment. Since UK would need to vote on that amendment, whoever is leader at that point is forced to either concede that the Leave campaign was built on lies and it isn't actually what that government wants, or to resign, trigger general election or second referendum.

• Someone triggers Article 50. The exit negotiations take years and years and years. So much time, that everyone forgets their aggro, populists in other countries are no longer menacing, and the UK ends up with a not-too-bad EFTA type deal.

-...?

• we piss around for so long with any of those, the EU disintegrates

Yes.

There are plenty of other scenarios where the EU disintegrates, or where the relationship with the EU is broken or highly unfavourable to the UK.

This is food for thought indeed.

I'm a Labour member and saw JC speaking several times during the campaign. It's true that he worked his socks off, and he is also much more charismatic in person than on camera - not flamboyant, but warm and witty. But the media completely blacked him out. I'm a fan - I think he's principled and fantastically smart and knowledgeable, but the reality is that if the media are going to continue to edit him out of the picture, he can't be a competent advocate for the party, it's just not doable. I voted for him in the last leadership election but if he's ousted shortly I would have to be looking at the competition, albeit with a very heavy heart.

I see the Libdems have already come out saying they would fight a GE on a Remain ticket, which suggests that not invoking Art. 50 is being discussed seriously in Westminster, although behind doors as yet. Like others, I feel a bit less panicky tonight, although no less ashamed of my nation.

And while the UK is indeed a net contributor, British governments and electorate have always under-estimated the fact that, for other countries, it's not about money, as it is here. They lived through WWII in a very different way than the UK did, and for the rest of the EU, the political project is what they see and are emotionally attached to. The UK just spat on that with this referendum, and it is taken as a very grave insult in a way that I think the British public really don't appreciate.

I think this is spot on and well articulated. It is also how I feel about the EU, and have rather resented the assumption that Remainers were cautious rather than passionate.

God, what are we all still doing up at this hour?!

You're right MrsLupo. Good night, all!

is 27 for me!
www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/brexit-tweets-guaranteed-to-make-brits-laugh-cry-or-both?utm_term=.dqyDGd5g07#.tkOnkEWRMA

I think we have really under estimated the wrath of the EU. All the retoric from the leave camp had been how we'll have at least 2 years to negotiate a strong exit. In fact what is happening is the EU putting increasing pressure on us to leave ASAP, and who can blame them! Their priority is now to protect the remaining union which they cannot do through generosity and a softly softly approach toward us.
Junker has said this evening that this is not going to be an amicable divirce

Great thread, very interesting.

Great thread. I think Angela Eagle has a lot of potential for being a good negotiator myself, God knows how you would line that up though.

Johnson as been "Check Mated", he has seriously underestimated the prowess of Cameron, This is a case of It seems Cameron has lost, but in reality Cameron has destroyed the political career of Johnson, because Johnson will "NEVER" invoke article 50, because he doesn't want Britain to leave the EU.

He knows leaving the EU means the complete disintegration of the United Kingdom, because Scotland will break away, Ireland will become United, and Separately Spain will lay claim to Gibraltar (right so btw)

Also the UK can't leave access to the single market, or else it gets bankrupt.

All this has been caused by that vile racist xenophobic Nigel Farage, who is hell bent on destroying our country, it's time he is truly exposed for his dog whistle politics, because of his racist xenophobic vision of Britain and the "sheep" that follow him is the reason for the mess we find ourselves in.

Merkel has said there is no rush, so the rhetoric is changing.

Love this thread. That piece by Nick Cohen linked to earlier is absolutely searing in its disdain. I get the impression that Johnson is not well-liked. Didn't Eddie Mair interview him a few years ago and told him to his face, on live tv "you're a nasty piece of work aren't you?"

This is very interesting.

the reality is that if the media are going to continue to edit him out of the picture, he can't be a competent advocate for the party, it's just not doable. I voted for him in the last leadership election but if he's ousted shortly I would have to be looking at the competition, albeit with a very heavy heart

I'm no Corbynista but I despair at the number of left-leaning people so desperate to blame Corbyn for Cameron's referendum. But I do think he has to go now, in the interests of installing a centrist candidate to run on a pro-EU ticket in the GE. Not sure who that might be though.

The article is far too generous to Cameron, who committed to the sodding referendum in the first place to appease part of his party.

That said, it IS now up to the head brexiteers (tossers) to take responsibility for their actions by standing for leader and explaining their plans to deal with shit that happens that they said would all be no problem; and account for all their lies during the campaign. Or remainer tories, eg May, to reject their suitability and do their best.

Osbourne and gove are both likely not to stand as they know (or should know) they are not electable as PM because of public opinion.

I've seen the original comment that this thread is based on being shared on FB now. And the (controversial!) petition is nearly at 3M signatures. There are also reports of increased racial verbal abuse on Twitter.

What a mess!

I'm no Corbynista but I despair at the number of left-leaning people so desperate to blame Corbyn for Cameron's referendum. But I do think he has to go now, in the interests of installing a centrist candidate to run on a pro-EU ticket in the GE.

I disagree.

They have to go to the left to represent the section of the public that were abandoned by new labour. The BNP did NOTHING until this point and then started to attract support. It was widely felt as early as 2005 that the BNP and UKIP appeals to the same 20% of the electorate. Strangely enough when the BNP imploded, UKIP started to get the same percentage share of the vote in the constituencies they stood candidates in. The main difference between the success of the BNP and UKIP was organisation, money and better PR. So they were able to stand far more candidates on a national level.

This is why I do think a Lib - Lab pact is a better solution. Its cooperative politics which people I think are looking for much more, plus it stops the vote being split which is actually the real problem here now. This means the full Left and Centre is covered giving people choices rather than just meaning that they need to be tribal.

Yes there are a lot of people who don't like the LDs. But they also do have appeal to areas of the electorate that Labour don't - particularly parts of the Conservative vote - mainly those who vote Remain.

I appreciate a pact won't sit well with everyone, but it is probably the best way to tackle the issue.

Personally I think Corbyn hasn't done that bad but he did need to be a bit more decisive and show leadership. The media haven't done him a favour over this, but he his tone perhaps was muted when you put that next to Johnson's Churchill impression. I don't think Corbyn should have gone that far, but being a bit more spirited and positive in a world where image over substance is the order of the day, would just have been being savvy.

Red I agree right now that parties proposing a unity government type approach would probably do well. A lib-lab pact might work. But there won't be a GE for a while and the mood will change.

This thread has restored my faith in human nature after some of the awful EU ref threads on here!
But...
I'm still utterly dismayed and quite tearful again this morning about the whole sorry mess
Idiot voters who wanted to "stick it" to the "elite" and are now bleating about how sorry they are
Well, cry me a fucking river
Fascists and racists who now think it's ok to harass people in public because they think this vote has given them a mandate from the people for their vile views
It's Going to get worse
Much worse
Hate crime and violence will increase
HSBC has just announced 1000 jobs will be going to mainland Europe
It's begun and it won't stop here
How has this has happened?
The blind ambition of 2 chinless wonders has brought down my country