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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 25/06/2016 23:51

Hunt - no fucking chance!! Thank fuck 😀

QueenLaBeefah · 25/06/2016 23:54

Out of the lot of them i could just about tolerate Therasa May.

RiceCrispieTreats · 25/06/2016 23:54

Oh I agree fireplace.

I'm just highlighting that the UK is not in any position to ask for any new terms, as a PP suggested. Quite the opposite. It's not a "weak" negotiating position, it's a non-existant one.

Thegirlinthefireplace · 25/06/2016 23:55

Rice fair enough, I misunderstood your post then.

PrimalLass · 25/06/2016 23:56

This is my favourite thread on the matter.

PrimalLass · 25/06/2016 23:57

Not Hume, him

MajesticWhine · 25/06/2016 23:58

Theresa May is ok. She has kept relatively quiet during the campaign so she could be a good compromise candidate. I desperately want us to find some way out of this, but I don't see how it can happen.

FirstShinyRobe · 25/06/2016 23:59

Oh, and I am in no way a DC fan, but his move is genius from a personal political pov in the circumstances. Agree entirely with the OP's article. Shiny Ham Face Dave Underwood. Who'd have thought it?

PrimalLass · 25/06/2016 23:59

RiceCrispie - I think we'd take 50 lashes and promise to behave right now if that made it all go away.

QueenLaBeefah · 26/06/2016 00:01

I don't blame DC for resigning. Who would want to sort out that shit storm?

Still, it feels like no one is actually running the uK at a critical time. Frightening.

Also, where the hell is George Osborne?

Wordsaremything · 26/06/2016 00:02

.

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 00:04

I do hate Dave and ultimately blame him for this whole sorry mess but I do like the idea of Johnson and Gove being caught unaware by his dumping of the ticking shitstorm bomb in their lap.

ftw · 26/06/2016 00:13

Can we opt out of this whole sorry mess, bin all of Westminster and ONLY have Brussels govern us? (Only half kidding...)

LatinForTelly · 26/06/2016 00:15

I desperately want us to find some way out of this, but I don't see how it can happen.

I agree Majestic. Although it is interesting that Article 50 hasn't been invoked straight away.

LittleBearPad · 26/06/2016 00:16

I don't blame DC at all for thinking 'fuck this, you deal with it Boris'.

Is Boris, like Gordon Brown, going to be an example of when getting what he wants is worse than not getting it at all. Time for him to grow up.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 00:16

To add in to the whole cocktail of shitstorm...
Do you think some Tories/DC/BJ actually pleased their cunning plan working out well as Scotland may now leave the union ....meaning left wing party highly unlikely ever to gain power again in the nation that's left given make up of the constituencies...., leaving Tories and white men from Eton in power forever and ever?

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 00:20

No Obi.

Cos there are too many Kippers

MajesticWhine · 26/06/2016 00:26

No I don't think that they are secretly pleased. Infact come to think of it, that might actually be why they looked a bit horrified. The results map highlighted the deep divisions in the country and made Scotland's independence appear inevitable. No one wants to go down in history as the leader who brought down the United kingdom. Boris is a historian. He will be acutely aware of what this means.

ipsogenix · 26/06/2016 00:31

That does sound very plausible OP. It's a tricky situation one way or the other, but a useful wake-up call for the EU I think.

sunnydayinmay · 26/06/2016 00:41

Bloody good thread, OP.

DioneTheDiabolist · 26/06/2016 00:50

Hahahahahahahahaha. The only thing cheering me up at the minute, is the thought of politicians discomfort.

Ta OP.Thanks

iniquity · 26/06/2016 00:53

I agree, fascinating thread. Looks like the bullingdon club have lifelong membership and the country is now the practical joke gone wrong! If only they stopped at pig fucking.

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 00:54

I hope someone says Take Back Your Cunt(ry) at some stage during this Tory battle.

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 01:29

All of you that are unhappy, Get in touch with your MPs. Let them know what you think, especially about the Leave campaign lies.

I hope lots of other actions like this happen.
I also hope that the Leave voters who realise that they were lied to, especially those who have felt disconnected from the elite and the political class their whole lives and were sufficiently fired up by this issue to vote in the first place, that they hold on to that passion and use it to hold BoJo and Gove to account.

AugustMoon · 26/06/2016 01:37

The EU was like the Hotel California until 2009 - no one could ever leave. Then Article 50 of the EU Treaty was enacted as part of the Lisbon Treaty, approved after Ireland's second vote in 2009. Once Article 50 is invoked a two-year negotiating timeframe is envisaged.

Extension of the two-year talks term requires unanimous agreement of the remaining 27 member states. Failure to get unanimous agreement would mean the exit would happen automatically.