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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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TheNorthRemembers · 25/06/2016 23:22

Credible? Not Corbyn then. Have you seen him today? "I can't see how it is my fault, I said everything I had to." All true, but it is not your homework, you [I am too angry to find the right word]! It is our lives! You should have worked your socks off instead of mumbling away occasionally.

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Bumblebzz · 25/06/2016 23:23

This sums it up for me

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?
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littlequestion · 25/06/2016 23:27

The thing is, just about every MP knows that pulling us out of Europe is suicidal for the country. Don't they have some legal duty not to behave in a reckless way/ one that could damage the people they serve?

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TheNorthRemembers · 25/06/2016 23:28

Bumblebzz That is hilarious. Also very sad.

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GhostofFrankGrimes · 25/06/2016 23:30

Credible? Not Corbyn then. Have you seen him today? "I can't see how it is my fault, I said everything I had to." All true, but it is not your homework, you [I am too angry to find the right word]! It is our lives! You should have worked your socks off instead of mumbling away occasionally.

Some people cannot be reasoned with as interviews with Brexiters on TV today show. This is not Corbyns fault. Some people do not want a 20 minute sermon on why neo liberalism is bad for ordinary folks because "immigrants stole my job" is some much easier.

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QueenLaBeefah · 25/06/2016 23:32

What a fucking mess.

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TooMuchMNTime · 25/06/2016 23:32

I heard Corbyn did a lot of enthusiastic campaigning that no one reported.

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TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 25/06/2016 23:36

Ok here are my predictions:

Theresa May will be elected as new Tory party leader. I'm not convinced BoJo will even bother to stand, I wouldn't if I was him.

Labour will succeed in booting out JC (genuinely no idea who will take over - drawn a complete blank on that one).

There will be a general election within 6-12months.

We will join the EEA with freedom of movement as part of the deal. They could just sit on this result & not invoke Article 50 but I don't think the other EU nations will stand for that as they are mightily pissed off both with this result & the way we've behaved prior to the referendum.

No idea what Gideon will do - his political career is totally fucked though.

I don't think that DC's resignation was done to fuck over the other side - I don't think he saw this result coming at all & genuinely does not know what to do.

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ObiWanCannelloni · 25/06/2016 23:36

littlequestion I'm Remain, Remain, Remain but can't see anyway parliament can not follow the wishes of the referendum without backlash.
Trust in politicians already very low, now they're going to tell voters they're wrong?
3 million (shonky) signatures on an online petition plus D Lammy urging MPs to veto will lead to debate but how can they say they're not going with a democratic obtained result?
In same way, I don't see how they cannot invoke Article 50 by end of year... I don't see how the public and Murdoch would let them walk that backwards....
(I know they can theoretically do these things, I mean how it would play in reality)

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TheNorthRemembers · 25/06/2016 23:37

DH thinks that Corbyn could have said anything and the media would not have reported it, so you are probably both right Ghost and TooMuch, but it still does not make him the right person to lead the Labour party...

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TooMuchMNTime · 25/06/2016 23:40

I do have major respect for Corbyn so I'd be sorry if he had to go.
Agree with Duchess that May will be the next Tory leader.

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RepentAtLeisure · 25/06/2016 23:40

Credible? Not Corbyn then. Have you seen him today? "I can't see how it is my fault, I said everything I had to." All true, but it is not your homework, you [I am too angry to find the right word]! It is our lives! You should have worked your socks off instead of mumbling away occasionally.

Corbyn didn't promise a referendum, and he didn't call one. He wasn't on the Leave or Remain team, but even though he is privately a Eurosceptic, going by his history, he did advise people to vote Remain which was the responsible position to take. What more could he do really?

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TheNorthRemembers · 25/06/2016 23:40

ObiWan Only a new Parliament would have mandate to do anything other than invoke article 50 really, no? None of the changes flowing from this result were in the manifestos though, so the present MPs and the governments have lost their mandate.

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GhostofFrankGrimes · 25/06/2016 23:41

*DH thinks that Corbyn could have said anything and the media would not have reported it, so you are probably both right Ghost and TooMuch, but it still does not make him the right person to lead the Labour party..."

if Corbyn had campaigned to leave Labour heartland such as Liverpool and Manchester would still have voted to remain. Corbyn would have been blamed. The alternative to Corbyn is a Blairite and thankfully that ship has sailed.

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JeanGenie23 · 25/06/2016 23:42

I think, and I am not a politician so it doesn't really matter what I think but, DC fought for what he truly believed was right and on Friday morning it was very clear that he cannot run a country whereby the majority of people disagree entirely with him. Sadly he had no choice but to go. However by resigning it gave him the chance to screw over BJ at the same time, who has made it very clear wants to be PM. DC said come on then BJ have a go if you think you are hard enough Grin

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Thegirlinthefireplace · 25/06/2016 23:43

I'm biased because I like Corbyn but blaming him really is misplaced anger. There are plenty above him on the blame list. He was late to the party and his natural style is not charismatic but the problem with labour voters turning to UKIP is not aBout Corbyn or of his making.

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ObiWanCannelloni · 25/06/2016 23:44

Gawd... BBC saying Hunt keen to have a crack at running Hmm

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RiceCrispieTreats · 25/06/2016 23:44

A weak negotiation is going to happen

I don't think so. Nobody wants to negotiate with the UK anymore. Or certainly not with anyone who had any part in the Leave campaign.

Even if the leadership election manages to find a sacrificial Remainer to ask the European Council for another round of face-saving negotiations, it'll go something like this:

New PM: "We want to discuss new terms for staying in."
European Council: "So you're staying after all? Brilliant. The new terms are that you lose any concessions you've obtained in the past 43 years and now have to follow the same rules as the other 27 countries around this table."

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MitzyLeFrouf · 25/06/2016 23:45

HUNT?

FUCK THAT SHIT.

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PrimalLass · 25/06/2016 23:45

If not, did they have a fair clue that DC'd just give it fuckety bye and flounce?

This made me laugh more than anything else has in the last 2 days. We need Malcolm.

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JeanGenie23 · 25/06/2016 23:45

I saw sadly and I don't even like the creep (DC) I've never voted for him, but he is becoming less and less slimy to be in comparison to Gove (nobhead) and BJ (tit)

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Thegirlinthefireplace · 25/06/2016 23:48

I disagree rice. We haven't left, we don't need to negotiate to stay, we can just stay (as it stand unless they find away to kick us out). Obviously we wouldn't get anything new and would look like utter fools but not sure on what basis they could remove existing membership rights when we haven't quit membership. Interested to be corrected if you have other facts.

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TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 25/06/2016 23:49

I like JC but I think the party made a mistake voting for him as leader because he doesn't have broad enough appeal. The Labour Party really could do with kicking out all the Blairites, I would enjoy that 😊

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PrimalLass · 25/06/2016 23:49

That is why I want to make clear that the Liberal Democrats will fight the next election on a clear and unequivocal promise to restore Britain’s prosperity and role in the world, with the United Kingdom in the European Union, not outside it.

I miss Nick. Can we rewind and have Hume back!

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FirstShinyRobe · 25/06/2016 23:50

All of you that are unhappy, Get in touch with your MPs. Let them know what you think, especially about the Leave campaign lies. This isn't over until article 50 is implemented.

The referendum is in no way a mandate, given the outrageous spin. Make your MP aware that it is clear that the result was a protest vote against the political class of which they are a part and that you expect them to partake in fixing that problem. And I mean the problem that is even bigger than the referendum result.

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