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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 18:41

Doin that's true.

You do have to remember that the EU might have a different take what a referendum constitue and that they might not take it lightly to see a referendum ignored by said Parliament....

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 18:42

And good point about the European Central Bank supporting the pound atm....

Ironic isn't it?

ClashCityRocker · 27/06/2016 18:43

Well, they're just 'asking' aren't they?

DC can still say 'no'.

If he does have to invoke, what happens next?? I get negotiations start, but who will be doing them? Our government is in chaos, no one, least of all BoJo has a clue what they want brexit to actually look like.

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 18:45

PigletJohn the Chuckle Brothers might be free?

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 18:46

How is the ECB supporting the pound? Confused

Our central bank is doing that.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:46

When you consider the money involved for the EU on this - emergency meetings and such as well as other measures, having to make changes, new appointments to posts - I cannot imagine that it would be received well if we changed our mind at this point.

LaurieMarlow · 27/06/2016 18:47

Mmm, the EU have historically been fine about redoing referendums that didn't suit them. See the Irish and Danish (?) examples.

However, under very different circumstances and informed by a very different relationship with the nation in question.

These are indeed interesting times.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 18:47

By Christmas seems to be word in diplomatic circles.

EU financial year runs jan 1 to dec 31.

They will want to make it clean and easy.

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 18:49

You do have to remember that the EU might have a different take what a referendum constitue and that they might not take it lightly to see a referendum ignored by said Parliament....

It doesn't matter what view they take.

It is not up to them.

The council of ministers is obviously not interested in reducing the national influence or decision making powers of their counterparts in other countries.

allegretto · 27/06/2016 18:50

How's Johnson though, has he had a nice day?

Probably not as nice as yesterday which he spent playing cricket with Earl Spencer. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/britain-boris-cricket-leave-lies-referendum-promises?CMP=fb_gu

(Apologies if that has already been posted as I haven't seen all the threads)

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 18:51

But anyway, DC is going to ignore the Parliament's resolution as it's not binding in any way.

The Council isn't rushing it (Merkel, Tusk), and they're the ones that need to be notified under Article 50.

The new leader from September 2 will ask Parliament for a mandate. That's the next hurdle before anything happens in Brussels.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:54

I just want to see the new PM activate the A50 prior to any possible GE. I don't want to see the civil unrest and chaos that will occur if LibDems run on a No Brexit ticket. I think it would be unbelievably ugly.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:58

oh for heaven's sake. Are they going to divide the country up into little states now?

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 18:59

Ginger I don't know - I think by then the impacts will be more obvious and a manifesto that explains pros and cons would be more than we have had so far. As a Remainer I would accept a leave through an election of a Brexit party

Badders123 · 27/06/2016 18:59

He is the generations Michael heseltine isn't he??

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:59

One for UK, one for EU, one for UK, one for EU...... Hmm

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:00

Showme I didn't vote Leave, but at this point I just want to get on with things. I hate this limbo. It feels like a long fuse running while all this is going on.

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 19:00

I wonder if there is a constitutional right for me to create my own state too and apply to the EU? Hhhhmmm what shall I call it?

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:01

This 'taking back control' malarkey looks to be working out well for us so far doesn't it?

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 19:03

Juncker told the UKIP MEPs to go home the other day as they'd always been anti-EU. Good.

I need a summary of the various coups going on.

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 19:04

I think we deserve a general election run on whether Article 50 woukd be invoked and what we would be looking for if it is.

All we have now is a very close advisory referendum suggesting that slightly more than half of the UK electorate want to leave the EU.

Given that two out of four nations have bern outvoted by England's larger population, there are lots of reasons to argue that there is not enough in this poll to justify forcing Scotland and NI out of the EU against the will of their populations and very much against the interests of their people in the case of NI.

I think it is entirely reasonable for our normal democratic, constitutional processes are brought to bear on this situation before changing our constitution permanently.

There are still lots of unanswered questions about the legality of repartitioning Ireland on the basis of what amounts to an English plebiscite.

NI's entirely population is less than the (extremely small) margin in favour of Brexit.

noblegiraffe · 27/06/2016 19:06

BoJo thought his campaign would fail. Hence he never had any good plan in place.

No, Johnson thought his campaign would fail, but the plan to have no plan was in place well before he joined the Leave campaign. The idea not to have an exit plan was detailed in the Leave campaign manager's blog a year ago to the date of the referendum.

dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2015/06/23/on-the-referendum-6-exit-plans-and-a-second-referendum/

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 19:06

It's going to be a waiting game. A game of chicken.

The united front among the 27 today, even the doves like Merkel, is "no negotiation before notification".

While Boris wants a mandate from Parliament on what kind of deal they would like, then to ask the EU 27 if that's what they would get, before pulling the Article 50 trigger.

And in this waiting game, the UK has the upper hand. There's nothing that can force them to pull the trigger.

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