Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
8
UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 18:22

A Game Theory Analsysis

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 18:23

Dad that's what the UK Constitutional Law Association says yes

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 18:24

swedishedith Grin Prisoners Dilemma explaining sub-optimal outcomes indeed Wink
I don't know whether to laugh or cry

How's Johnson though, has he had a nice day? Does he take Monday's for a bit of "me" time? Poor dab, all these bastards being unreasonable actually wanting answers and decisions... don't they know he's only paid for a weekly column?

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:24

OK, so a further question... UK constitutional law vs EU law. Doesn't EU law trump UK law? Would that come into play?

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 18:25

Imagine a case where the Parliament doesn't have vote to sign the Article 50.
Can you really see the EU being happy with that? A blatant refusal to follow democratic principle?
I suspect that there is a rule on how to deal with that somewhere TBH.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 18:28

As far as I know EU law always prevails to the country laws, that's why hen a new law/rule comes into place, all countries have X years to modify their own laws to approve it and make it part of their system.

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 18:28

It also clearly states that in effect not going for the Artcile 50 would be undemocratic and I can't see the EU been accepting of that in any shape or form....

LOL Grin

This is a resolution of the European Parliament.

That's why nobody is covering it, because the parliament has no role in this.

They can try to pass resolutions like this to look tough, but ultimately, as the resolution makes clear, this will be managed by the Council, not by them.

The word ask is the most important one in the resolution.

As an EU head of state, Cameron can just ignore this. Which he will.

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 18:29

Plato technically referendums are not binding in the UK. Also sovereignty is with Parliament not the people. So technically not against our democratic conventions and I think therefore outside of EU remit (tho I am not a lawyer)

PigletJohn · 27/06/2016 18:29

VACANCY – CENTRAL LONDON WITH FOREIGN TRAVEL

Scapegoat wanted. Must be articulate and trusting, with no comprehension of what’s going on. Experience of complex international negotiations an advantage but not essential. Two-year fixed term.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:30

Okay. Now this....
"13. Will enact changes in its internal organisation to reflect the will of the citizens of the United Kingdom to withdraw from the European Union;

  1. Calls on the President of the Commission to reallocate the portfolio of the UK Commissioner with immediate effect;

  2. Calls on the Council to change the order of its Presidencies to prevent the process of withdrawal from jeopardising the management of the day-to-day business of the Union;"

So they're stripping the UK of their "jobs" within the EU effectively immediately, even prior to the A50, to put pressure on us. And they have changed the order of its Presidencies - wasn't the UK supposed to have that in 2017?? Another huge withdrawal of power for us.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 18:32

It also clearly states that in effect not going for the Artcile 50 would be undemocratic and I can't see the EU been accepting of that in any shape or form....

I think article 7 relates to not following democratic procedure off the top of my head. But don't quote me on that

PattyPenguin · 27/06/2016 18:33

It doesn't involve the member states as such - it's a motion for a resolution in the European Parliament and it's scheduled to be debated and voted on tomorrow (28/06/16).

I'm off to find out what proportion of the MEPs has to vote in favour in order for a motion to be carried.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 18:33

PlatoTheGreat
Given advisory referendum blah blah and then parliament needs to formally decide, I reckon if Johnson, Leave or Cameron had come out with any statements over the weekend that they may go against the decision, I wonder would Eu have sat on their hands, been irritated but given time for Uk to in-fight and come to decision.

But as all said they would respect the result, I think Eu think inevitable so get on with it

I think the only way out for Remain is if a new PM calls a snap GE and a "stay in" ticket wins and so can legitimately say they have mandate for reversing.

Eu is being smart, because if we're made to press button now, and then GE means we say, actually, don't worry guys we're staying after all, they have opportunity to say, fine, you're on same terms as everyone else, none of your old concessions, suck it up. Whereas if we dither, don't press button, have GE and end up staying, they would have had months of financial insecurity and contagion....

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 18:34

Doesn't EU law trump UK law?

No.

The UK never stopped being a sovereign nation.

It's laws will have to be respected in this.

The referendum has no legal standing. It is advisory only.

It would be profoundly undemocratic for the Prime Minister of a country to be forced into by-passing his own parliament, in keeping with his country's constitution, to take an irreversible step under an EU treaty on the basis of an advisory plebiscite.

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 18:34

Yes but I think that it's the UK that indicated it didn't want its 2017 Presidency under the circs, although for the life of me I can't remember where I read that.

Holding a Presidency is a LOT of work, and presumably Whitehall will need all those people for Brexit negotiating instead.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:35

Cameron not out until September 2nd. Want to bet EU finds a way to get the clock ticking before then?

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:36

I vaguely recall reading something that they hoped the Presidency in 2017 would benefit them. I can't imagine them giving up power at this point - they need all the leverage they can get.

The problem is there is so much conflicting info out there.

tinkertanya · 27/06/2016 18:36

BoJo thought his campaign would fail. Hence he never had any good plan in place. DC outmanoeuvred BOJO big time. Brexit is not going to be easy in the first few years. All its problems are on BOJO. DC had several meetings with the EU leaders; he knew they would not make it easy for the UK since that would encourage other countries to leave.

Now Scotland wants to remain, that means there is no easy route for BoJo. Worse in the Westminster halls - birds are chipping of a plan to make sure BoJo never reaches No 10.
Outmanoeuvred and Left to dry

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:37

Doin well that's good to hear.

I do think the EU is going to play hard ball, despite their indications otherwise. Merkel has already gone from "no need to be nasty" to "the UK is getting no special treatment."

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 18:37

Our commissioner lost his portfolio on Friday.

Of course they're not going to have UK presidency on 2017. That would be ridiculous.

The EU is definitely moving on without us.

And there will be major pressure on the UK not to piss about too much before invoking Article 50.

By Christmas seems to be word in diplomatic circles.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 18:39

Obi that's possible.
The EU isn't going to like the uncertainty of 'not pressing the button yet'

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:39

I really don't think all the infighting and posturing is "for the good of the country." If it were, they'd be trying to work together more. It seems to be all about the win and point scoring.

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 18:40

DoinIt Interesting...unless there is an election and a party wins on a remain mandate?

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 18:40

GingerIvy re: betting Eu finds a way to get clock ticking...
I reckon so too. European Central Bank must be helping shore up the pound at this point, they can use all kinds of behind scene pressure that it's not in their remit to prop up an economy that's volatile because in part, it's not got a plan.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:40

I've reached the point where I just wish they'd hit that big red button and get it over with, then get to work on it. The longer we draw it out, the longer the fighting and chaos goes on. Once it's a done deal, some people will be pissed, but will have to accept it.

Swipe left for the next trending thread