Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
8
toriap2 · 27/06/2016 18:03

Pass the ginunder. Will share chocolate

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 18:04

DH has just read it, and thinks that there's more to it.

He thinks it is potentially a 'get out of jail free card' for DC.

But it depends if we are dicks or not.

Alisvolatpropiis · 27/06/2016 18:04

It is a warning shot that negotiations may not go smoothly if we delay, isn't it.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 18:05

Can't blame EU honchos. They can't be seen to be waiting patiently for UK to pull its fingers out of its arse.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 18:05

What a shambles. I can honestly say I'm heartbroken. I was still in denial.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 18:06

Ooh in what way Red?

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 18:08

I would like to point out that Nigel Farage will be attending the meeting tomorrow. Doesn't bode well.

Can we arrange for him to be drugged? Kidnapped? (

toriap2 · 27/06/2016 18:08

I know a ninja.....

GoudyStout · 27/06/2016 18:08

They're asking DC to push the button tomorrow or Wednesday - I'm not sure that is the same as enforcing it? I read it as basically saying to stop all the knock on effects of uncertainty on the rest of Europe, please get on and do it.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 18:08

However, will cling to any hope and gin possible....

Right. Will shut up now. As you were.

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 18:09

Agree completely with Lurking's analysis

"Really, the 2010 coalition should have been seen for what it was - a clear indication that the old Capital/Labour faultlines in the UK had subtly shifted, and that terms such as "Tory" and "Labour" were no longer meaningful."

Anyone else finding it difficult to concentrate on much else work atm?

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 18:10

Just because it admits:

Stresses that the current challenges require reflection on the future of the EU: there is a need to reform the Union and make it better and more democratic; notes that while some Member States may choose to integrate more slowly or to a lesser extent, the core of the EU must be reinforced and à la carte solutions should be avoided; considers that the need to promote our common values, provide stability, social justice, sustainability, growth and jobs, overcome persistent economic and social uncertainty, protect citizens and address the challenge of migration requires developing and democratising, in particular, the Economic and Monetary Union and the area of freedom, security and justice, as well as strengthening the common foreign and security policy; considers therefore that the reforms must result in a Union which delivers what citizens expect;

Put it in context of Johnson thing about it being all about control and democracy over and above immigration, economic etc....

He thinks it forces DC to say yes or no tomorrow. If DC says he can't then... hmmm....

Questions, questions.

The next 48 hours will be interesting.

LordRothermereBlackshirtCunt · 27/06/2016 18:11

Cameron needs to call in sick tomorrow and Wednesday.

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 18:12

Point 7 is interesting:

"7. Recalls that any new relationship between the UK and the EU may not be agreed before the conclusion of the withdrawal agreement;"

It's saying: FIRST, the UK is officially out, out in the cold with only WTO trade rules, and THEN negotiations on possible EEA.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:14

That does appear to be what it is saying Rice

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:15

I'd like to think that DC won't come home from tomorrow's meeting looking sheepish and saying "oops, they said it counts...."

But maybe that will be for the best and we can wade in and sort this properly without all the fighting.

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 18:15

But the thing is he actually can't under our constitution - and article 50 has to follow our constitution doesn't it?

ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 18:15

'Anyone else finding it difficult to concentrate on much else work atm?'

Yes! Very much so.

Dad54 · 27/06/2016 18:16

Im no lawyer but I would guess that DC will argue that he isn't notifying under Article 50 because that must be done officially by the Govt, probably after a Parliamentary vote, which hasn't happened yet
Although hes said the referendum result must be adhered to, it in itself is NOT a legally binding obligation on the govt and so the EU cant legally assume it is until it officially is!
Maybe....

knittedslippersx2 · 27/06/2016 18:16

Praying for a general election, I'll vote for whoever pledges not to follow this through. I don't care who it is, it will be short term pain rather than this mess. A lot of outers believed they were voting for something different than this. All the backtracking and admitting lies were told. This can't be legally binding when people were duped and lied to. I feel sick to my stomach by the whole bloody thing. We need someone with a back bone to do the right thing, sadly I don't think anyone will stand up.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 18:17

I hope you are right Showme. I hope you are right.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 18:18

RedTB Thank you
Where is that being reported... BBC not covering it, Channel 4 focussing on Labour ( PLP ) meeting going on... So you know, more important stuff..
WTF?

Isn't the Eu bureaucracy tho that all nations will need to agree... So if powers-that-be-whoever-they-are-at-this-fucking-point-and-whether-they-are-bothering-to-do-their-actual-job can persuade one of the 27 to veto then that would hold it?

Dad54 · 27/06/2016 18:19

But I do think you learn a lot more about what your ex is really like during the divorce, so it wil be interesting to se what kind of ex the EU turns out to be!!

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 18:20

It's still all brinksmanship atm - need a game theory expert, I've forgotten a lot now.

I veer between acceptance, hysteria and almost thrilled at the sheer WTF ness of it all.

And we may save the world from Trump. America will be watching.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 18:21

It also clearly states that in effect not going for the Artcile 50 would be undemocratic and I can't see the EU been accepting of that in any shape or form....

Swipe left for the next trending thread