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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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Badders123 · 27/06/2016 17:20

Grief wanking and crying probably

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 17:20

'Do you honestly think the EU and government are going to pour all that time and money into this and then turn around and say "Nah, we're not going to do it after all.'

I half suspect they might. Not that they'll be as explicit as that. What seems to be coming pretty clear is that it won't be the Brexit that many voted for.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 17:20

Gove probably got his wife to ring in sick for him.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 17:21

But none is trying to discuss should we stay should we leave.

Let's be honest, Europhile will be much happier with staying in the free trade zone than leaving completely.
Eurosceptic might want the free trade or they might seek complete separation from the EU.
The question is, how can MPs reflect those sentiments and how can be the best outcome, the one that the population REALLY want if there is no room to express those?

As for DC starting to be open and clear about what is going on ... Yay right....

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 17:24

Badders123 that does assume some kind of - say - Erm, conscience?Hmm
He strikes me as a man who has never, ever, ever had to live with the consequences of something he's done.
That article his sister wrote, she said he just keeps saying "it'll all be alright, it'll all be alright".... That seemed to be what his Telegraph column said and what he said on doorstep this morning.
Who needs a plan when they have a personal mantra like that?

Badders123 · 27/06/2016 17:33

True obi
Just the normal wanking then :)

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 17:33

Well this doesn't look terribly good for the UK's side of the matter:

European Parliament resolution on the decision to leave the EU resulting from the UK referendum

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that the EU just outmanoeuvred Boris by a country mile and we are completely screwed at the negotiation table.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 17:37

Yup, if we don't leave after those changes the EU has just made, we will be utterly fucked. Is anyone really shocked? You tell the EU you're leaving, you pretty much have to leave. It's not rocket science.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 17:40

So big red button tomorrow or Wednesday. And we are effectively suspended is what I'm understanding from that.

Namehanger · 27/06/2016 17:40

If there was a GE I would vote for the person who would win and promised to remain. Even a b**y conservative.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 17:42

Very interesting read red
So I gather that Article 50 will be signed tomorrow then?

I'm not sure how Boris th out there was any room for manoeuvring TBH. If the vote is out, then it's out. There is no negociations to do there.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 17:43

And from that article, I also suspect that the UK has given to the EU the incentive it needed to move forward and to get a stronger EU, economically, politically etc...

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 17:49

It effectively is accepting the referendum as legally binding, telling DC that he must notify them formally by tomorrow or weds and suspending us.

Its still a bill that needs to be passed by the European Parliament, but the chances of it failing are minimal.

So bugger. It doesn't matter what our MPs or House of Lords do. The EU has moved to stop that and make it irrelevant.

Game over I suspect.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 17:49

Or that's how I read it at least...

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 17:50

And there you have it - decisive collective action by a body taunted by Gove et al as bureaucratic, slow, unresponsive and undemocratic. I think we are about to discover what happens when you piss off your European neighbours - and the answer is not 'they sell more cars to us than we to them'. Where are winter biscuit, claig, and all those MN brexit cheerleaders now.

Alisvolatpropiis · 27/06/2016 17:56

Interesting that Cameron gave the impression that Article 50 would not be triggered soon.

I know soon is a relative term but tomorrow or the day after is pretty "soon" in anyone's book.

But he's hardly going to start being truthful now.

One of the MP's, Sir Gerald something, please with him to stay! I couldn't work out if he was going for peak irony or was truly sincere.

Alisvolatpropiis · 27/06/2016 17:56

*pleaded

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 17:56

I can't say I blame them. We've fucked about for days, its clear we don't have a plan, so they HAD to move to protect their interests.

If we don't provide leadership and direction, someone had too.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 17:56

I didn't think they could force the quit-ee to invoke Article 50.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 17:58

Well they are apparently trying to...

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 17:58

I believe Article 50 states that they trigger it by notifying the EU of their intent to leave - it can be verbally or in writing. The EU is not incorrect, I suspect. It's certain that they've had legal research done to support their decision.

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 17:59

There is still room for Cameron to refuse to invoke Article 50 until the autumn.

That looks to me like they have accepted that the treaty leaves the timing up to him.

Cameron might need the backing of parliament to do it.

They can ask, but I don't think that resolution says we have to respond by doing as asked.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 18:01

Oh. Just seen this. Game over then Sad

Fuckity fuck.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 18:02
  1. Warns that in order to prevent damaging uncertainty for everyone and to protect the Union’s integrity, the notification stipulated in Article 50 TEU must take place immediately; consequently asks the UK Prime Minister to notify the outcome of the referendum to the European Council of 28-29 June; this notification will launch the withdrawal procedure;

That's what it says. It seems pretty clear that they are looking at his advising of the outcome of the referendum to be their notification, thus triggering A50.

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 18:03

I'm sure it's political brinksmanship by the EU, but it's bloody effective. The big difference between the last referenda and now is the rise of social media - they can't spin their way out of developments as they happen.