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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 16:33

I would much prefer a new GE. I'm very unconfortable with the idea that we might have an unelected PM for the next 3 years, one that might well be directing the country on a direction it doesn't want.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 16:39

A direction it doesn't want? You mean towards Brexit, that won the vote? Hmm

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 16:44

"All the chatter I´ve heard today seems to be of pushing ahead with leaving - does anyone think there is any realistic chance of us overturning the result/ignoring the result/not enacting A50 and staying in the EU?"

There was something hopeful in the FT by Gideon Rachman, under the heading "I do not believe that Brexit will happen" - but it is behind a paywall so you might not be able to access it - here is the link -

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html?siteedition=uk#axzz4Cn3lte00

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 16:45

Nope not what I meant at all.

What I mean is that there are plenty of ways to come out of the EU and the referendum says nothing about it.
It could be leaving completely.
It could be staying within the free trade zone.
It could be an agreement such as the one with Turkey.
It could be something totally new.
None of these are remotely the same and I suspect that people who wanted a strict control of immigration would be very upset by staying within the free trade zone (that will imply still a free movement of people).

Also seen that peole have had a very different approach to what Brexit means, it could be that what the majority wants is staying in the free trade system. Or it could want something like what Turkey has.
We don't actually know what the population as a whole wants now that we know we are out of the EU as it is.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 16:46

That was to ginger

LurkingHusband · 27/06/2016 16:48

Teresa May deliberately lied about the cat incident to try and whip up a "let's leave the EcHR" sentiment.

I prefer my human rights protected by the EcHR than the Tory party.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 16:48

Basically, esp as the vote was so close, it could well be that the majority of people wants a free trade agreement which would be the most acceptable option for Remainers and Leavers.
But if the PM isn't elected, what is telling us he will not negotiate something completely different?

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 16:52

They've already stated that they will be very open with choices of models they will be looking at, so that the public are clear what's going on. They cannot have voting on every issue, of course, because realistically it would take a century to complete otherwise.

LurkingHusband · 27/06/2016 16:54

so that the public are clear what's going on.

Shame it wasn't like that before the referendum ...

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 16:56

Quite!

Girlgonewild · 27/06/2016 16:56

ECHR is nothing to do with the EU by the way. It is not an EU body.
The first post/Guardian are wrong - if you read the Government's papers it did not say it would that day trigger Art 50. It said fairly swiftly it would - i.e. a good few months and that is what is probably happening.

In my view Brexit with our keeping free movement like Norway in EEA or Switzerland out of EEA which in both cases are free circulation of goods and people would not represent what people voted for who want to curb immigration from the EU. However we might choose to ride rough shod over that ( I have no problems with that) and end up with subject to EU laws with no say over them and as much immigration as before which si the worst of all worlds most remainers knew we would end up with if we left.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 16:58

All the hints seem to be towards EEA.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 17:00

You are missing my point Ginger.

If we have some GE now and MPs are elected also according to their views on what would be the best way to move forward re Brexit, then whatever decision will be taken will much more in line with what people want.

If we have a PM that is selected by the what? 150000 members of the Conservative party, it's unlikely to that it will represent the 60 millions people in the UK.
Would Boris Johnson really represent what people want in these negociations? Or Theresa May or Osborne or whoever else might win that election?
The change in circumstances and the huge importance of that change means that people have voted for MPs with a very different set of expectations. Because of that, I suspect our MPs do not represent 'the voice of the people' atm

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 17:00

The FT article that Figment linked to is very interesting.

LurkingHusband · 27/06/2016 17:00

ECHR is nothing to do with the EU by the way. It is not an EU body.

I know that. However, a certain T. May has not been above using it as a whipping boy to stir up anti-Europe sentiment.

She is not to be trusted.

Thegirlinthefireplace · 27/06/2016 17:02

Ridiculous that the options are only now being discussed!

I must admit to not paying too much attention to the actual campaigns because I knew my position based on having eductated myself but if leave ignored the issue, what a failing that remain didn't raise them

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 17:02

Lurking after this election, I would be extremely surprised if our politicians are that open about the different options.
I suspect they will stir things the way they think is best IN THEIR OPINION, with little care of what we think.

LurkingHusband · 27/06/2016 17:07

If we have a PM that is selected by the what? 150000 members of the Conservative party

Who are themselves divided over Leave/Remain. Any PM has to be acceptable to both sides. Or we are back to square one.

The bigger picture is that UK politics has not caught up with UK reality. Where does a Europhile Tory place their vote ? Where does a Eurosceptic Labour supporter place their vote ? Especially in an electoral system which ignores anyone who doesn't come first.

Really, the 2010 coalition should have been seen for what it was - a clear indication that the old Capital/Labour faultlines in the UK had subtly shifted, and that terms such as "Tory" and "Labour" were no longer meaningful.

I wonder how many people - faced with a Labout/Tory candidate who does not represent their views on Leave/Remain would switch their vote to UKIP (if they are a leaver) and LibDem (if a remainer) ? Especially when they know that only the winning candidates votes count for anything ?

LineyReborn · 27/06/2016 17:11

They've already stated that they will be very open with choices of models they will be looking at

Who are 'they' Ginger? Genuine question.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 17:13

I think that continuing at this point to continue fighting over should we stay, should we leave is divisive and is only going to cause further problems. Do you honestly think the EU and government are going to pour all that time and money into this and then turn around and say "Nah, we're not going to do it after all."??

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 17:14

"They" are Cameron. He just said it on the television this afternoon whilst answering questions.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 17:14

Cameron, the government that will be working on it, etc etc

LurkingHusband · 27/06/2016 17:15

"They" are Cameron. He just said it on the television this afternoon whilst answering questions

Interesting time to start believing him ?

Alisvolatpropiis · 27/06/2016 17:18

Cameron didn't say much beyond "it will happen, we are open to negotiations and getting the best deal for the country".

Every other question was met with "that is a question for the next government".

Was half tempted to start a tally of how frequently he said it.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 17:19

Johnson not even at PMQT to face the music then? Shock
The man is without shame, clearly. Gove apparently popped in but stood behind speaker.

How can Johnson possibly justify that .. And what was he scared of - being boo-ed by his own party? Or just too busy at a Telegraph free lunch or making sure his election campaign was well underway?

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