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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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PattyPenguin · 27/06/2016 14:35

As the gig looks to be a pretty crappy one, won't Bozo's enemies in the Tory party be only too delighted to land him with it?

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 14:36

Would Teresa May be any better though?

If she takes a reasonable approach to Brexit negotiations and accepts something close to free movement, as a known (if lukewarm) remainer she could easily be pilloried by the right-wing press for betraying the Leave mandate.

While if Boris takes the exact same position, he'll be the hero giving Britain its independence Hmm

As much as I desise Boris right now, I'll take him if he can make the Single Market is an easier pill to swallow for the Leave camp.

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 14:37

despise

mouldycheesefan · 27/06/2016 14:39

Teresa isn't a compulsive liar like boris is.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 14:43

Interesting, that Germany have said that they won't do any formal or informal talks about leaving until we press the big red button.

Again reading between the lines that does sound like a 'you lot sort yourselves out, decide what you want and come back to us approach', though we should probably take political comment out of Germany a lot more literally than our own lot as our European friends tend to me a lot more direct, and actually mean what they say rather than this ridiculous doublespeak we excel in.

GoudyStout · 27/06/2016 14:44

Is that a nice way of saying piss or get off the pot?

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 14:45

it makes complete sense, Leave were hoping to circumvent the 2-year deadline by starting informal talks early, but why would the EU agree? the time pressure works in their favour.

noblegiraffe · 27/06/2016 14:48

I don't want Corbyn anywhere near that red article 50 button. We know he's a closet Brexiter, plus he is deeply principled and is probably the only politician I can imagine having the balls to press it and destroy his legacy in the history books, because it was 'the will of the people'.

PlatoTheGreat · 27/06/2016 14:52

Red I've been reading the news from other EU countries and come to the same conclusion than you.
And TBH it makes sense. What's the point to start anything if we have no idea of what we want to achieve???

The EU might push for some decisions of we take too long though. Uncertainty will be hard to negotiate from the EU side too (eg drop in the budget, new repartition of powers etc)

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 15:01

I don't know if Theresa is a compulsive liar. But some of the policies she has implemented as Home Secretary have been irrational, unfair and inhumane. I don't trust her for one second - to me, she's proven she'll do anything to further her career and Tory power, even if it means sacrificing innocent people to the demands of the anti-immigration rightwing press.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 15:07

I know they're saying sort yourselves out then come back to us.
But behind the scenes the Eu is rolling on and on micro level (like the Financial service Eu commissioner resigning) we will be getting sidelined or decisions being made on whether appropriate for us to be in the room for meetings.
Not just that, there must be tsunami of business pressure to get some roadmap and timings for the decisions companies need to take, day in day, not least investment decisions... Easy jet and Barclays Gp suspended share trading at one point today...
I think it's part of Johnson cloud cuckoo land that he thinks he gets to sit with his chums and decide which year if ever they press the button...

rednsparkley · 27/06/2016 16:08

All the chatter I´ve heard today seems to be of pushing ahead with leaving - does anyone think there is any realistic chance of us overturning the result/ignoring the result/not enacting A50 and staying in the EU?

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 16:09

Sounds like DC has just said that no, they are not going to be calling a GE. He will leave that decision up to the new government (and I would imagine that's not going to be likely).

rednsparkley · 27/06/2016 16:09

And I will confess I have been listening to the radio and looking at the front page of the papers so not extensive research or anything Blush

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 16:09

He's also said basically "look, when we voted to have a referendum, it was 6 to 1 in favour of it. Now's a bit late to be complaining about it!"

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 16:11

I can feel a snap election in my waters.

Badders123 · 27/06/2016 16:11

I really don't know
At the weekend I was hopeful but...
The EU want us gone now
Plus which party would chance it? Going against referendum?
The right wing press are all smoke and mirrors ATM...ok, we lied, but look! The Labour Party is imploding!

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 16:12

The decision of the referendum must be accepted, per Cameron.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 16:12

The Lib Dems have said they'll campaign on a No Brexit ticket.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 16:21

They'll only be able to campaign on a No Brexit ticket if there is a GE. If a GE is not called, they won't have the chance.

Floisme · 27/06/2016 16:22

Great idea, Lib Dems. If there is a general election, every candidate could sign a pledge to vote against the Brexit...

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 16:22

Corbyn's being booed en masse by his own MPs. He's a bloody barnacle. Resign already Jezza! Let's have someone electable and a lib-lab pact!

InShockReally · 27/06/2016 16:23

So much for that slim hope then ... We are fucked.

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 16:29

ah but, the new tory leader has to be able to carry a majority of MPs to enact Brexit in the Commons to avoid an election, it's by no means obvious that the new leader will be able to get that majority (it's certainly my hope).

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 16:33

Most MPs are opposed to Brexit. I still think there'll be a GE before too long.

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