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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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DorynownotFloundering · 26/06/2016 20:34

Whatever they may or may not be discussing/thrashing out/panicking over behind the scenes, SOMEONE could have popped their head over the parapet to say " give us the weekend folks - we're having a pow-wow" or something similar to reassure us that they are actually talking rather than hitting the Bolly to drown their sorrows /celebrate.

DoinItFine · 26/06/2016 20:34

Get out immediately and let someone who is actually going to responsibly do the job take over right now.

That is what he has done.

He has resigned.

He has given notice, but presumably the party can choose not to hold him to it.

Are you really saying he should have resigned effective immediately, on Friday morning?

You can't surely be arguing that that wouldn't have scared the horses?

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 20:39

Ginger, no-one's arguing that DC isn't a cunt. The thread is about how his cuntishness completely shafted a very unprepared Boris Johnson.

VikingMuchToAllOurLiking · 26/06/2016 20:40

It would be nice to think there was a government plan to deal with brexit wouldn't it?

DoctoraNova · 26/06/2016 20:45

I'm confused. A third of the shadow cabinet have resigned. www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/labour-crisis-how-coup-plot-jeremy-corbyn-gathered-pace
Can someone wise please explain what's going to happen to Labour?

MunchCrunch01 · 26/06/2016 20:48

I imagine that many people are attempting to talk sense to Corbyn about the fact he needs to do the decent thing...

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:50

IMO We don't really know how unprepared any of them are, which is a bit unnerving. I see Boris going about his regular business and I wonder if he is simply waiting for the leadership battle. I note he has been looking in to that. Perhaps he thinks it's DC's duty right now to be making public announcements, for the most part, and he's focusing on what he'll do if he gets leadership vote. Hard to say, really.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 20:51

DoctoraNova that's a fair question...
But I'm a bit pissed off that's Sky News's rolling news item, while blithely ignoring the complete absence of leadership by the actual party in power at the moment.

The Labour leadership drama will play out as usual. Does it really matter that a shadow foreign secretary lots of ppl hadn't heard of isn't in place, when the actual foreign minister is giving interviews saying he doesn't know what happens next?

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:51

Doin - DC resigned, effective in October. He said he would remain PM until then to "steer the ship." Well, we're floating without a rudder or a sail at this point. If he's still PM, he needs to be (as stated above) sticking his head above the parapet and saying SOMETHING to reassure the public at least that they're meeting and working on things.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:53

And I detest all this showmanship of the people who are resigning in Labour. Is it really necessary that some of them do so via media?? Just ridiculous. Yes, let's show the public that the party leaderships are falling like flies, THAT'LL reassure them and calm down the panic. Hmm

Hulababy · 26/06/2016 20:54

Come in leave voters - WHY DO YOU WANT DC TO STAY AND LEAD US THROUGH THIS? WHY FINT YOU WANT YOUR LEAVE CAMPAIGN LEADERS TO TAKE CHARGE NOW?

I really really don't understand why you're all now blaming DC (and believe me, I'm no supporter of him of his party) for not wanting to put through a process he doesn't agree with it!but not mine person has yet told me why they want DC to stay and lead us through the process!

JassyRadlett · 26/06/2016 20:57

Actually rereading the arguments i have more sympathy with your POV, Ginger, on DC - though I think he's right not to do anything binding.

That said, shouldn't Boris have had the foresight to guess DC might try to shaft him, given he did the same to DC?

VikingMuchToAllOurLiking · 26/06/2016 20:57

The government are/were not 'for' brexit, and so would possibly not choose to spend time planning for this scenario. No plan. Planless. Sans plans.

MunchCrunch01 · 26/06/2016 21:02

I don't see what can happen before the leadership changes really. I do understand the labour resignations - they're resigning to force Corbyn to do so - which he's steadfastly refusing to do by the looks of it!

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 21:02

Ok, which one of you is Nicola?

Pleeeeeease can someone explain to me why BBC news leading item is Shadow Cabinet not the Leave Camp/Party in power disarray??

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?
MunchCrunch01 · 26/06/2016 21:06

Presumably they're expecting the next breaking news to be JC's resignation rather than any leave campaign shenanigans

wiltingfast · 26/06/2016 21:09

Just marking place...

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 21:11

Corbyn's restocking his Shadow Cabinet.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 21:12

The government are/were not 'for' brexit, and so would possibly not choose to spend time planning for this scenario.

Any responsible government MUST have some type of preparation/plan in place for any eventuality after a referendum. They didn't have to have a plan for how to trudge through the actual exit, but they were well aware that a Leave win would cause some financial/market drops/fluctuations, and lots of turmoil. A responsible government would have a plan in place, for the good of the country, on how to keep the peace, promote calm, and head off any riots/upheaval, regardless of what side the government was on. They still have a responsibility to the country itself to make sure things go as smoothly as possible until the new PM/new government/Brexit group take over. THEY called the referendum, it's THEIR responsibility to prepare for the initial crisis involved in the outcome, regardless of which way the vote went.

Hulababy I didn't vote Leave, so I couldn't really give it to you from that perspective. I frankly don't care if Cameron stays or goes - I just want a government (meaning the government that is currently in power) that is visibly attempting to reign in the panic and keep things as stable as possible until the initial stuff is sorted out. Sadly, Cameron doesn't seem to feel that is necessary. Very poor judgement on his part.

SybilEngineer · 26/06/2016 21:14

Early on in this thread a poster suggested that Johnson & Gove weren't looking sheepish but were acting statesmanlike, somber (their PM and good friend had just resigned) and magnanimous (in victory) so as not to piss off the 48% who'd voted Remain. Much as I loathe the pair of them I think she may have had a point and they're not fazed at all.

Johnson spent Saturday playing cricket and today has been holding meetings at his home. The Independent writes

There is widespread expectation that prominent Leave campaigner Boris Johnson will take his place, and in doing so surround himself with other politicians who support Brexit, allowing the move to go ahead

He's got 17 million people behind him and I have an awful feeling that we are going to leave the EU.

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 21:15

I think Labour are expecting a GE sooner rather than later and trying to get JC out of the way to get a more electable leader in place before that happens. They know they have until October at the earliest to sort it.
Apparently David Miliband has coincidentally flown in.
I am growing more sure we will be going down the GE route.

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 21:16

So what will happen tomorrow?
Surely they can't ALL stay in hiding until October!?

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 21:16

Maybe DC resigned to buy a bit of time as the clause 50 won't be invoked now until the new leader is in

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 21:16

Johnson is holed up. With no-one who matters.

DorynownotFloundering · 26/06/2016 21:16

Whether or not Corbyn should resign is not the priority at the moment, I do think it incredibly bad timing for Labour to throw a shitstorm now while the other side is in such turmoil

Don't know that my nerves can take much more of this!! Grin