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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:00

Good grief. Now Tony Blair is sticking his oar in and saying "there's no reason we couldn't have a second referendum." Seriously, can someone gag that man? How is this helpful?

WinnieTheW0rm · 26/06/2016 20:01

If Tony wants it, it must be a bad idea.....

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 20:02

Ginger someone should tell Boris that nature abhors a vacuum. If he won't tell us what the future holds, the press will talk to other politicians.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:02

There are a terrifying number of people on his facebook begging him to come back into Labour and take the leadership and "steer the UK back into the EU." Hmm

chocomochi · 26/06/2016 20:03

Boris and Gove looked particular sick together. Good move by DC to pass on the crap to them to clear up.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:03

A vacuum? Mistigri from what I can tell, the man can't utilise a comb, much less a power tool! Grin

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:04

While it may have given Cameron some satisfaction to dump it in Leave's lap, he is PM, and should be leading at this point. I'm truly disappointed in him at the moment; he has let the UK down in a big way since the vote.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 20:06

The question is has he also shafted us too, in the process of shafting Johnson. I am beginning to wonder.

I think after the initial smirk and ray of hope, I'm firmly back to thinking that I think we are screwed. Perhaps even more than I thought originally.

Europe are wise to the 'Masterplan' and it hasn't worked because of that and because Cameron didn't press the button and let Johnson 'win' somehow.

Hence the comment about all losers on the tube (in the face of the fact of private exit polls by Leave.eu being favourable, which is inconceivable they don't know about) just as the results started to come in.

So we are now in a weird limbo, whilst they panic about what to do next, as they are rapidly running out of options.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 26/06/2016 20:07

Johnson still doing his column for the Telegraph tomorrow, apparently.
So there's that I suppose, may as well let the paywall subscribers knowwhat's happening first....

yep, theres your man of people anti establishment next PM Grin

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 20:13

There's a suggestion on another thread here that serious money might have been made by certain people betting on the result knowing how private polls were panning out.

TendonQueen · 26/06/2016 20:13

Yes, making sure he tends to his money-spinning part time job before he bothers to talk to the electorate at large. Such a leader. Total lack of any form of integrity.

JassyRadlett · 26/06/2016 20:14

What I am saying, again, is that the PM that calls the referendum should have the foresight to have a plan together for both possible outcomes. As he is still PM, he should be dealing with these developments until October, when he says he is stepping down. Any responsible government that calls a referendum should have a plan for any possible outcome

Actually I think it would be more destabilising for the government to present a clearly fictional plan knowing (along with everything else) that it won't be implemented as a new prime minister and cabinet will be in place shortly with their own plan (I hope).

I actually think the most reasonable thing is for the leadership contenders to put forward their preferred plan and allow parliamentary party and membership to vote on whose vision they back. It would have been pretty unreasonable for a lame duck PM to tie the hands of his successors by kickstarting a process now that took them down a certain path.

And now the word 'plan' has lost all meaning through overuse.

Ohchristmastreeohchristmastree · 26/06/2016 20:18

www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-25/boris-gets-a-thundery-reception-on-his-way-to-cricket/

Can't do links.....but this is yesterday

Ohchristmastreeohchristmastree · 26/06/2016 20:18

Oooh, I can do links!

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:19

The point is that the PM should be doing SOMETHING. Presenting SOMETHING to the public. Even if he just says "look, nothing at all is going to happen until October, so let's not panic. And even in October, it'll likely be X amount of months to prepare, so we carry on as usual for that time. As we flesh out a timeline of what we're looking at, we'll present it to the public, so they know what's going on, but in the meantime, there's no reason to panic, just carry on as usual."

Would that really be that much of a stretch???

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:22

By resigning, Cameron has guaranteed that the country is in limbo for a good 6 months. We'll likely get nothing until after Christmas. First the parties will be fighting over leadership, then there's a good chance of a GE. Although if they're smart, they won't do a GE, as avoiding a GE will effectively avoid Farage from obtaining more support. But anyway, 3 months minimum for new leaders, and then a few months to get to grips with everything, and then it'll be Christmas, and they'll look to the new year.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 20:24

GingerIvy
The man left his daughter in a pub ... I think he's just done the same to us Blush
Suspect this is him right now....

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?
dudeerschil · 26/06/2016 20:25

How long can a newly wed couples stay along with minimum ten relatives or may be 27 relatives, does any one of you live in joint family, DEFINITELY NO !! you will be absolutely stressed out living with so many people at home with their choice, their likes and the newly wed marriage has only been stressed over years. Similar is the story of British with EU, Britain is stressed off with so many issues! Definitely couples need a break.

When we ourself can't live in a joint family with many indifferences, how can one expect all countries into this puddle !!

respect space,respect freedom, no need of being desperate . Lets hope for the good !! Only trading would be done in a different way, and bars will be set high which is in a way good unlike America,Canada,Switzerland,Norway. So most talented people would pop in. I am an Eu and i pay tax, I am alright with either Leave or Remain .
I support both

DoinItFine · 26/06/2016 20:25

Resigning and disappearing is the right thing for Cameron to do.

The shock and realisation that this was a fucking shit show of a referendum result is important.

We don't need a PM telling lies about how it will all be OK.

It won't be OK.

VikingMuchToAllOurLiking · 26/06/2016 20:28

Planning for brexit was not allowed. Not in areas where planning usually takes place. No10 were very clear on this.

Excellent thread. Well done red toothbrush, your posts are on the mark.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 26/06/2016 20:28

Resigning and disappearing is the right thing for Cameron to do.

If an office fire alarm went off I wouldn't expect the fire wardens to be the first to run out of the building leaving the staff behind.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:29

We don't know what the outcome is going to be, long term. It certainly won't be aided by a PM that is MIA and not actually leading the country at all. This referendum was called by Cameron. He has two choices as far as I can see:

  1. Get off his arse and show himself and start leading the country, even if it's just in the interim until someone new takes over.
  1. Get out immediately and let someone who is actually going to responsibly do the job take over right now.

Anything else leaves the country in limbo. That increases uncertainty and has a negative effect on the markets and the public.

Alisvolatpropiis · 26/06/2016 20:30

Urgh nobody needs Blair sticking his oar in, can't he just crawl back under his rock?

DoinItFine · 26/06/2016 20:31

We can't "carry on as usual" until October.

Our (strategically important) commissioner was effectively fired on Friday.

The EU is going to move on without the UK. It's already happening.

Having a GE in which parties can csmpaign to on whether they will invoke Article 50 might be a better way forward than leaving the EU slowly and pissing our neighbouring countries off even more.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 20:32

Public planning maybe, but internally on a government level, it would highly irresponsible for the government/PM not to have some semblance of a plan to deal with the chaos, the uncertainty, and what to do to stabilise what they could initially. Again, the presence of the government should be felt at this point. They're nowhere.

The man left his daughter in a pub ... I think he's just done the same to us
I hadn't thought of that, but yes, I can agree with that.