Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

[CommanderShepard]

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

You know what makes me angry? That Boris and the rest of them are actually going to get off scot free.

We're pissed off at them now, but already the PR machine is in motion to deflect blame elsewhere. Their buddies in the papers will go "Look! Squirrel!" to draw public attention elsewhere, and then it will be back to painting him as Jolly Old Boris, as per.

In a couple years' time, he'll probably be PM, sloooooowly negotiating a Single Market deal, passions will have died down, and short memory syndrome set in.

Which I suppose is a good thing for stability. But it is infuriating that these entitled cunts just never, ever get held to account in any meaningful way.

A GE may well lead to a hung parliament/UKIP gains. As if the country isn't fucked enough.

An outright Labour victory would mean having to sort the clusterfuck that is Brexit.

I think it's the right strategy really, bin Corbyn, get a better labour leader, vote of no confidence in any leave led Tory administration, general election and elect a labour govt on an anti-brexit ticket. Both unions saved!

But the big questions are really going to be who is taking over leadership of each party? And will there actually be a GE?

They can effectively freeze UKIP out by avoiding a GE. Can they avoid a GE, though?

The Tories may not be willing to have a GE that might allow UKIP a foothold.

The tricky stuff to me is this:

Any GE opens up opportunity for UKIP.

Any backtracking on the outcome of the referendum prior to a GE will enrage the people that wanted Leave, which may mean a HUGE surge of UKIP votes to force the Leave.

It's funny though isn't it, because a whole lot of anti-brexit MPs are going to have to back a leadership candidate that is a brexiteer for a general election to be avoided - and is that a result they could live with?

Most Leave voters are surely becoming aware now that Farage is coming across as just a bit of a lying bastard on the things they voted on?

Yes, 21 UKIP MEPs are, effectively, unemployed.

Is DC really not steering the boat or is he actually acting towards other aims?
eg pushing Boris even further on the route of self destruction and putting his 'men' at the top
Or ensuring that UKP doesn't get even more strength/votes
Or trying to avoid a GE now

Just musing...

Can someone wise please explain what's going to happen to Labour?

Right now? I wouldn't be surprised if you got a split in the Labour party completely potentially.

I am growing more sure we will be going down the GE route.

See I'm the opposite. I think its increasingly less likely.

Yes, a GE any time soon would mean big gains for UKIP.

But they would probably split the Conservative vote enough that a LibLab coalition or other flavour of coalition would form the government.

Maybe?

It's funny though isn't it, because a whole lot of anti-brexit MPs are going to have to back a leadership candidate that is a brexiteer for a general election to be avoided - and is that a result they could live with?

Actually it is totally possible that the next leader of the Conservative party is a Remain. Then, how on earth he/she will deal with the situation is hard to guess. But I can't imagine them refusing to aplly the Article 50. That's what people voted for (or at least that's what they were supposed to be voting for)

An interesting article about what could happen now

And yes a GE might not happen but a second referendum asking people what they actually want (titally out of the EU or the Norvegian option etc...) is a possibility
Now that would be my idea of a nightmare tbh

LineyReborn I'm really not sure that's the case (sadly)...
I think he's really getting a popularity bounce as "the one that got us this referendum and independence". I don't think there have been any consequences yet that people will actually feel , and some of the papers are pushing a rosy picture of markets recovered, pound back up, Obama saying we're still special friend, Merkel being conciliatory etc etc..
On Question Time earlier a young Leave guy in the audience really pushed back at Leave panellist that the £350m lie was official Vote Leave lie, Farage was never allowed on the official Vote Leave camp, etc etc so he never lied...
We know what an opportunist he is, I think he can make mileage if we don't launch into exit, plus if he's excluded from group steering it out etc etc.
I'm sorry to say, I think he's well positioned for the GE as he gets to continue being on the sidelines pretending to offer utopia to people who don't care if the pound or stock market have gone down.....

Apparently Boris has been playing cricket today at Princess Diana's brother's estate....

Most Leave voters are surely becoming aware now that Farage is coming across as just a bit of a lying bastard on the things they voted on?

Liney, you are using logic where logic doesn't apply.

Haven't you read threads over the last few days where people are in complete denial about the things that are happening that are not good.

They have been given a set of beliefs where by they can blame, deny or otherwise blind themselves to the reality.

Why? Because people were given a bit of hope they weren't getting from anywhere else. If they stop believing in Farage then they give up on that hope. Even if its blindingly obvious.

Its not something you can rationalise. You'll go crazy in the process of doing so, and indeed the entire 'belief system' means that any attempt to do so, legitimises and reinforces all the messages they have been told!!!

Its nothing short of brainwashing.

Its bloody scary.

And actually I think that the likes of Boris and Gove, underestimated it and have suddenly gone fuck - the public aren't dancing to our tune like planned. Farage is the piped piper instead of us.

The worst bit is, the more I talk and the more I try to explain it to others, the more I find myself thinking that I'm sounding like a bloody crazy conspiracy theorist myself. And start to doubt my own sanity.

So I may just go and have a big glass of wine to stop overthinking myself round and round in circles.

Cheers

Not bowls?

The thing is not everyone has a brain that is focused on linguistics and logic. Some people have brains that have more focus on other things. There was something appealing to them in the leave campaign. Remain focused on the logistics and linguists. No side was more brainwashed than the other.

Since we're talking about interesting guardian comments, here's a nice bit of satire:

Naturally, people are - in lieu of our nation's most recent Prime Minister - quite right to point the finger of blame at Mr Corbyn: sabotaging the EU referendum, as he indisputably did, by campaigning for Labour to remain in the European Union.

More shamefully still, he didn't even have the decency to lie to people; or make promises he couldn't keep. Perhaps because of this, a woeful two thirds of Labour-voters turned up and voted to remain members of the European Union.

Leave campaigners may very well have - to use the overly emotive language favoured by the left - lied; but that's small beer compared to the iniquity of being truthful. That an honest campaign for remaining in the EU should be considered more damaging then a mendacious campaign for leaving it speaks volumes - for Mr Corbyn, that is.

Contrast all of this with the noble endeavors of Mr Cameron, however; who had been lauded weekly by the media's senior political pundits for his vigorous, glossy, and unbending mastery of the zinger, throughout the course of the last year. Mr Cameron didn't hesitate to make promises he had no intention of keeping; nor flinch from the duty of saying things which are untrue. Perhaps that is why he managed to deliver an impressive one third of his supporters to the 'remain' ballot?

And while it may be true that it was Mr Cameron who decreed that we should have this referendum in the first place - and whose political fellow-travelers have spent decades blaming immigration for all of the social ills in Britain - we can at least say
that Mr Corbyn has not done either of these things; which is as close as someone uninvolved in them can get to being responsible for their combined outcome.

If you ask me, Mr Corbyn should have covered all bases; by professing a fierce support for the EU; while bemoaning the free-movement of people upon which membership depends; and simultaneously campaigning for Brexit. If only Labour had been more like UKIP - only without the independence part - all would have been well.

His subordinates are therefore quite right to bemoan him for not being sufficiently tolerant of racist sentiments aimed at immigrants; two months after complaining that he wasn't sufficiently intolerant of imaginary racist sentiments among Labour supporters.

But let us not digress from the real nub of the issue, here: we have taken our country back. Brexit may very well have cost global investors $2 trillion; but that will be more than covered by the £350 million we save on EU membership fees, once conversion has taken place - with plenty left over to fund the National Health Service, a bit of scientific research, and maybe the odd flag, as well.

It's all up in the air at present, of course: Leavers have just successfully campaigned for the biggest constitutional change in Britain for forty years. It's a bit much to expect them to have planned what came next.

Fine work from everyone except Mr Corbyn, all told. For shame.

The world must know the truth: once the result of the referendum came in, Mr Corbyn didn't even have the basic decency to walk away, and leave everyone else to pick up the pieces. Contrast that with Mr Cameron, however, who promptly departed; post haste.

There is simply no end to Corbyn's villainy.

Red, that is what was imaging. This really has shaken everything up, hasn't it? Fucking hell. Maybe Labour will split and go back to its socialist roots. But how that might come about I have no idea.

I too wonder if the constant rolling commentary on the shadow cabinet coup is misdirection?

We need David Miliband to come flying across the Atlantic wearing a red cape to save us all.

Just doesn't pass the credibility test that a Tory politician that campaigned against Brexit could lead the Brexit negotiations or would want to, but I suppose they would want the leadership and this would be the price of it...a high price though. I think a GE has to be had as there is no majority of pro Brexit MPs to implement this. If the Tory party out key leave MPs in the UKIP strongholds they could see that threat off.

An outright Labour victory would mean having to sort the clusterfuck that is Brexit.

Not if they ran on a "No article 50" ticket.

A GE, which is the usual means by which citizens of this country express their democratic preferences, could neutralise the fucking stupid referendum we just had.

You could get mandate to ignore the Tory referendum, which was about internal party matters and not the good of the country, and which was won based on barefaced lies that are already shown to have been such.

If you want the UK not to go through with the stupidest possible thing a country could do, then the focus should not be on pretending it's all fine really and no big deal.

Cameron should not be telling lies about that. People should be worried. This is serious stuff.

Statement from Corbyn:

Our country faces a huge challenge following Thursday’s vote to leave the European Union. And the British people have a right to know how their elected leaders are going to respond.

We need to come together to heal the divisions exposed by the vote. We have to respect the decision that has been made, hold the government to democratic account over its response, and ensure that working people don’t pay the price of exit.

Neither wing of the Tory government has an exit plan. Labour will now ensure that our reform agenda is at the heart of the negotiations that lie ahead. That includes the freedom to shape our economy for the future and the necessity of protecting social and employment rights.

One clear message from last Thursday’s vote is that millions of people feel shut out of a political and economic system that has let them down and scarred our country with grotesque levels of inequality.

I was elected by hundreds of thousands of Labour Party members and supporters with an overwhelming mandate for a different kind of politics.

I regret there have been resignations today from my shadow cabinet. But I am not going to betray the trust of those who voted for me – or the millions of supporters across the country who need Labour to represent them.

Those who want to change Labour’s leadership will have to stand in a democratic election, in which I will be a candidate.

Over the next 24 hours, I will reshape my shadow cabinet and announce a new leadership team to take forward Labour’s campaign for a fairer Britain - and to get the best deal with Europe for our people.

Good on him.

Oh and apparently The Chancellor will make His statement tomorrow.

On Question Time earlier a young Leave guy in the audience really pushed back at Leave panellist that the £350m lie was official Vote Leave lie, Farage was never allowed on the official Vote Leave camp, etc etc so he never lied

Saw that - pretty scary double-think stuff.