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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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SpaceKablooie · 26/06/2016 19:36

Oh, I've changed my mind - I previously thought that only Leave should have a Brexit plan / proposal, but of course the government should have a Brexit plan too. I'm double-cross now, there really is no information being released about what's going to happen moving forwards.

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 19:37

If you're PM that has put forward a referendum to Leave, you also have a plan.

This particular PM was the leader for the Remain camp.

Are you a plant by Boris to try to deflect blame from him, GingerIvy?

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 19:39

Again, I don't think it helps to have the Leave campaign to outline a plan to the public that they have not yet cleared with the government. Better to meet with them, hash out what surely the acting government/PM have planned and their own plans, and then present a balanced view to the public.

At this point, I think it is entirely the responsibility of the PM and his government to be laying out what's expected over the next three months to the public. He called the referendum, he is still PM, it is entirely his responsibility to deal with this until someone else takes over being PM. I find it hard to believe that he would call a referendum and not have a plan on what would happen for each possible outcome. (maybe that's why he's refused to stay on??)

PlatoTheGreat · 26/06/2016 19:40

xpost
I don't think they do becuase within 24hours of the results, they were all saying 'well we said xx but actually....'
The 'how on earth can you have free trade wo free movement of people' is an important question for example.

And I'm sorry but if you are the one who actually led a campaign about leaving the EU, the yes I expect you to out forward some proposals on hiow to get there, whether you are ta the head of the government or not. The Leave campaign have a big responsibility here imo.
And saying 'well its the PM responsibility' (which is exactely what they said btw) is running away from taking your responsibility for your own actions. It's saying 'well I created a huge mess that is really hard to sort out but you know what? I don't care and won't be involved in sorting it out'. Another way of course to see it, is that IF you really cared about going out the EU, surely you would WANT to be part of the process that will take this country onto a bright new future?

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 19:40

I wonder if Boris is playing cricket until he's PM and can then ask Whitehall for a plan. I suspect that's where all the contingency plans are.

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 19:40

Any sightings of Boris, yet?

Is he on some massive naughty step somewhere - Arthur's Seat maybe?

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 19:40

I'm more convinced Johnson was just flying by the seat of his pants with this whole "lark"... His sister wrote an article in the Fail today bemoaning exit, and saying she cried into the Mediterranean Sea over the decision (she's on holiday, naturally...with Katie Hopkins). The sentence "my son texted me and said people are going mad about it on Facebook" particularly made me want to hurl....

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 19:41

Please don't be ridiculous by suggesting anyone is a plant. You're getting kind of aggressive here, and it's really not in the spirit of this thread.

What I am saying, again, is that the PM that calls the referendum should have the foresight to have a plan together for both possible outcomes. As he is still PM, he should be dealing with these developments until October, when he says he is stepping down. Any responsible government that calls a referendum should have a plan for any possible outcome.

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 19:43

Oh, Johnson refusing to speak to the press. Shrugging.

Fucking shrugging.

PlatoTheGreat · 26/06/2016 19:44

Again, I don't think it helps to have the Leave campaign to outline a plan to the public that they have not yet cleared with the government.

Nope. They should actually make it as clear as possible to the whole population who has VOTED for that idea (and has voted to support their ideas).
The government is against the Leave. What do you expect them to do now? Do their best to follow through ideas they don't believe in?
And can you not see that if they keep everything secret, then it's very easy for the Leave side to criticise whatever the PM is doing and/or then sayind 'It's not me. I didn't want that' when it goes per shape/they don[t get what they were hoping for?

And that's where the big issue is. Nothing atm, absolutely nothing is saying that the next PM who will lead the negociations will be a Leave campaigners or if it is, it will be someone who has adopted the ideas that people have voted for.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 19:45

It doesn't matter, by the way, that the PM was campaigning for Remain. He is still the PM, and his government is in charge - that means they should be preparing for any possible contingency, including this outcome. He initially said he would stay and steer the country through exit if it happened, so clearly he was aware he needed to have a plan in place.

It would be like NS calling referendum for indyref and only having a plan in place in case they won, and not even considering what would happen if they lost. That's part of responsible leadership and government. You prepare for these things, so you're not caught unprepared.

NapoleonsNose · 26/06/2016 19:45

I am incredulous that Leave did not have a plan. During a General Election, each party draws up a manifesto regardless of whether they think they might win or not. I really do not see how this should be any different.

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 19:46

The "it's not up to the leave campaign to have a plan" talking point is straight out of the Dominic Cummings playbook. It's bullshit.

The leave campaign could not, of course, put plans into effect, but they sure as fuck could have done some planning.

Businesses had no influence on whether we brexited or not, and if my employer is anything to go by, they really didn't expect a leave vote. But it didn't stop them having contingency plans!

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 19:47

Ginger I am sure DC and the Humphries of Whitehall have contingency plans in terms of timetables of decisions to be made, and options....
But so much depends on political decisions now (eg when to start the 2yr clock) I don't think they can do anything other than plan timetable for those political decisions need to be made ... Though I agree and am very very surprised and think it's a failure of DC leadership to not be on Tv today reassuring the public that key meetings organised and going ahead to decide the way forward...
Like most politicians have mentioned they need a steering committee being formed to cover this period - why not say those convos underway and will be announced by Wednesday, with first meeting timetabled for Friday etc etc...

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 19:47

It's highly likely they've discussed plans with the government. But until they've ironed them out between them, it's not likely they'll share much with the public. That's why the PM needs to step up and reassure people they are organising things and going over how to proceed with as little disruption and chaos as possible for the benefit of the country. He could throw out a few bones about a few of the things they're looking at doing soon, and then say he'll update as they progress.

TendonQueen · 26/06/2016 19:48

It's arguable that the government, being via government, should have had a confidence plan for Brexit even though they didn't want it. It's absolutely certain that the group campaigning for Brexit should have had a plan for how to handle it. The gall of them saying 'it's up to Cameron' is egregious. I can't blame him for batting it back to them (he's to blame for plenty else, mind)

PlatoTheGreat · 26/06/2016 19:48

Aggressive? Shrug...

The plan from the PM is the vote is Leave? Resign I think was the plan.

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 19:48

I've just googled Dominic Cummings. Christ, he's one creepy looking dude!

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 19:49

But DC doesn't want to, Ginger. That's the point of this thread.

He has shafted Johnson.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 19:51

I suspect the fact that he has shafted Johnson, without regard to what it would do to the country itself, says much more about Cameron than it does about Johnson.

But then, the fact that Cameron called the referendum at all says a lot about him. And it's not that positive.

TendonQueen · 26/06/2016 19:52

I hope the press keep following Boris and asking him what he's doing next. I hope they stand outside his house every day between now and October asking him where the Cornwall money and all the other 'promised' money is coming from. The least he deserves is to be on the other side of the fence from cynical journalists for a change.

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 19:53

So basically yes, Boris has been outmanoeuvred, as the less Cameron says, the more his own silence is deafening.

I'm not denying they aren't both irresponsible, self-interested twats.
Just that the thesis of this thread has Boris been outmanoeuvred is pretty resoundingly yes.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 19:54

LineyReport Was Johnson actually spotted then? Damn I missed it...
How smug did he look? Or how ashen?

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 19:57

Obi, yes he was just doorstepped on itv news. He was trying to appear casual but looked nervous.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 19:58

Johnson still doing his column for the Telegraph tomorrow, apparently.
So there's that I suppose, may as well let the paywall subscribers know what's happening first....
Hmm

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