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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:54

We have a clear opportunity to dampen UKIP but it relies on Labour and Tories having decent leadership. If neither of them come up with a winner, and we have a GE, that hands an opening to UKIP to increase their power. If LibDems are serious about using ignoring the vote as their platform, they are literally going to fuel UKIP to much higher heights. The best outcomes will be with good leadership out of either the Tories or Labour, that will put us through the break with the EU with the least amount of chaos or conflict. I really don't think there's an option to reverse it at this point without serious conflict and damage.

ggirl · 26/06/2016 10:56

The fact that voter turn out for the 18-25 age bracket seems to have been less than 50% also suggests a failure in education.

where does this statistic come from ?

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 10:56

All that's happened thus far is we have had a Referendum. We do not have to invoke Article 50 now, in fact we have up to 2 years to get all our ducks in a row.

However, if Leave decide not to leave then at some stage they have to formally advice Bruxelles that they are not leaving the EU despite the referendum. The fact that some EU ministers and Merkel want us to get going swiftly is neither here nor there. They want us to get the process underway ASAP because other EU countries are having thoughts about leaving. That is the reason we are being hurried. Dont for a moment think that 27 member countries populations are gungho to continue in the EU and we are the only agitators, because that is not so.

Denmark and NL are totally fed-up. Sweden is lost, will never recover. It is now full of vicious gangs from the Baltic countries and hostiles from the MENA countries. Southern Sweden has become the rape capital of Europe, esp, Malmo.

TheNorthRemembers · 26/06/2016 10:57

Thank you for all the insightful ideas. I feel a bit less alone and scared after reading this thread.

Merkel's change of tone probably means that they had to physically block Johnson's, Gove's and Osborne's mobile number, and she wants to get some sleep.

Off to write to my MP now.

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 11:07

The Referendum would have gone the other way if our politicians had pulled their fingers out and responded to what citizens were saying. A year ago the Mayor of Calais said that the reason the UK is a magnet for economic migrants and illegals is because of our generous benefits system.

A German EU guy yesterday said (and Merkel too) that it would have been better if UK had revised its social security system for newcomers.

YES, they fucking should have. Why do you think so many bypass Italy-Spain-France to get to our country? Because they have learned how generous the govt is.

Remember the Romanian family of 7 who locked up their house in Romania and presented themselves to Hounslow Council having made themselves deliberately homeless and who were still given a 4 bed house - everything paid for. That happened within the space of 3 or 4 days of their arriving by coach. I suggest that this type of prioritising is what pissed off this country. The ones who voted Remain continue to be ignorant about how housing depts in England operate, and they continue to belief the lie that EU nationals are not prioritised. Errrr, yes they are.

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 11:10

Please stop it diana. This thread is about BoJo's leadership ambitions not the rights and wrongs of EU immigration. It's not relevant.

urbanturban · 26/06/2016 11:10
Hmm
urbanturban · 26/06/2016 11:10

That was too diana

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 11:22

Diana this was a fun thread to cheer us up by laughing at Bojo.

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 11:29

The

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 11:29
TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 11:32

Since when did you need to know your NI number to register to vote. We just got the usual paperwork in the post and it didn't ask for that - is this a new thing?

ggirl · 26/06/2016 11:35

ah right thanks duchess , it will be interesting if they actually do an analysis ..dunno if that is norm??

exWifebeginsat40 · 26/06/2016 11:55

Nicola Sturgeon has just gone on record saying MSPs could veto UK exit...

TheNorthRemembers · 26/06/2016 11:56

How I wonder.

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 11:57

Please stop it diana. This thread is about BoJo's leadership ambitions not the rights and wrongs of EU immigration. It's not relevant.

How dare you, Felascloak. But the doom & gloom of for example InShock upthread is? Jeez, talk about USSR style apparatchiks.

exWifebeginsat40 · 26/06/2016 12:00

ok, everyone out of the pool. someone said 'apparatchiks'

Gasp0deTheW0nderD0g · 26/06/2016 12:06

The 18-25 bracket contains lots of people who had problems registering to vote because they didn't know their NI number. The govt have started sending them in letter form and lots of people have lost them. So I'm not sure low voter numbers = apathy

It's off topic, but how were people getting their NI number before? I'm in my mid 50s and I think I got a letter when I was coming up to 16. I have no idea where that letter is now, but that doesn't matter, as I know the number off by heart. I've needed it quite often in the 40 years since. How do these young people manage when they start a new job? Don't they have to quote the NI number then?

Gosh, I sound old.

Anyway, back on topic - this is an interesting thread. Goodness only knows what's going to happen in the UK over the next few months. As a Scot living in London, I am looking forward to getting my ScotLond passport as suggested on one of the links upthread (I think it was this thread).

chocolateworshipper · 26/06/2016 12:08

Great thread

grabs the popcorn and pulls up a chair

Mishaps · 26/06/2016 12:09

Cameron reneged on his promise to stay put and "steer the ship" whatever the result of the referendum.

Boris is kacking his pants.

dabofriojakitten · 26/06/2016 12:13

If you've moved and need to register at a new address then you need your NI number.

TheNorthRemembers · 26/06/2016 12:15

Osborne's whereabouts link to Guardian

Treasury sources said the chancellor had spent the period since the referendum trying to limit the economic damage from the Brexit vote. He has held discussions with fellow finance ministers across the world, as well as other key figures, including Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 12:18

Thanks dabo (I know mine off by heart - no idea where the card is, is a bit of an irrelevance these days!!).

LadyStarkOfWinterfell · 26/06/2016 12:19

I don't think that not knowing your NI number is a great excuse tbh but it's probably true.
I don't know why Diana claims that migrants are prioritised within housing departments. They are not. However they are dealt with as any other homeless applicant in the UK is dealt with. If they meet the criteria of unintentionally homeless they will be housed.
I know that in my local authority we are getting creative with housing and yes that includes paying for families to go back in some cases (not against their will obviously) but we don't have reserves of 4 bed houses for anybody so there are families who realise that going home is preferable to living in one room in a hostel for months/years on end

officerhinrika · 26/06/2016 12:21

exwife Grin

I was reading this thread in the early hours, reading bits out to DS, and we both thought it was useful, well informed and in my case the best thread on the referendum so far. Cheered me right up after an evening at a party where lips had to be bitten hard.
Opened it up again to find the inevitable attempt at derailing. Diana as others have said, please stop.