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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:23

I could point out, I suppose, that Mark Carney made a point to address the media immediately reassuring the public that the banks were prepared and putting measures in place as needed. What did Osborne do? He disappeared.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:24

I can't believe that Osborne could think for one second that he had a chance at leadership. To quote a MN phrase "Is he on glue?" Hmm

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 12:25

diana
"Remember that Romanian family"?
Some facts here:
fullfact.org/economy/migration-and-welfare-benefits/

You also mention people bypassing Italy/France/Spain - would that be refugees you are confusing with migrants? Again, I'd encourage you to look at some facts about rules around refugees process

In other news... Liam Fox on this morning grinning over whether he'll bid for leadership... They're loving it aren't they, the old guard like him now back on telly and able to bid for power.... Don't give a shit about anything other than their power prospects...

To counter the more optimistic posts above (God bless ya..,) I'm more pessimistic that Johnson is pretty smug he can take over and blame all future shit blowing up in his face on Scots, Global financial crisis, that bloody Eu making life difficult for us.... Public has short memories after all and Murdoch's media can spin it how they like....

kittybiscuits · 26/06/2016 12:27

To be honest my 18 year old has been through a fair old drama to register to vote - twice in fact. Anyone would think we didn't want the yoof to have their say.

InShockReally · 26/06/2016 12:28

Well, I know I was doom and gloomy Diana but I did preface it admitting I was being so. It was a thought continuing from the comments above. Sincere apology to all for derailing or being overly bleak. Flowers

Another positive thing I've been secretly glad about this weekend is it's been quite chilly and wet (or at least it is around here). I remember reading that riots etc are more likely to happen in hot climates and weather - perhaps because everyone's outside having a drink, and hot weather makes people a bit moodier sometimes anyway?

So more rain please Britain, you're doing your bit right now Grin

Hulababy · 26/06/2016 12:30

DC had always said he was going anyway, and that he wouldn't be standing for the next GE. He just left earlier.

Do you really expect someone who opposed the decision to be the one to take us through the process?

If you thoroughly pops something, would you want to be the person in charge for leading everyone through it, going against everything you believe?

And do you really want someone so opposed to lead us through it? Surely you want someone who believes in the benefits of leaving to push forward and lead the country through it? Wouldn't you feel more confident to have someone who believes in the benefits of leaving the EU to be in charge now?

The leave campaign leaders got their way.
It is now THEIR job to successfully get us through it.

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 12:32

Opened it up again to find the inevitable attempt at derailing. Diana as others have said, please stop.

Derail? I am a longterm MN. In January I was on 9 threads of the Cologne sex attacks - that's 9,000 posts. I do not derail, but I remember a few usernames that do.

Badders123 · 26/06/2016 12:35

Well...quite hula!
But...where are they!?
Boris and gove are looking Terrified
Georgie is hiding in his attic nowhere to be seen
IDS looked like someone had just run over his dog on Marr
Cameron has already quit - in fact he seems to have been checking out for some time
Sooo.....

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:35

I get that DC doesn't want to get us through it - that's fine (and I won't even get into if he didn't want to potentially deal with the fallout, then he shouldn't have started the issue to begin with Hmm), but right now, the party leaders seem to be too busy fighting for position and not spending any time addressing the country, reassuring people, announcing positive developments, and basically keeping panic down.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:36

Ooops, meant to add: If he is going to be PM until October, then he needs to step up and BE the PM. Not sleepwalk through it until the next one takes over.

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 12:38

ObiWanCannelloni Guidelines are just that. My sister was featured in that C4 programme on How to Get a Council House. She works in the housing dept there. We are where we are (exiting EU) precisely because of the falsehoods of politicians.

Everything I stated upthread is correct. The Romanian family was indeed housed within 4 ays of arrival in Birmingham at £750 per month, because a similar 4 bed house around Hounslow area would have cost £2,000. They were given 7 free rail tickets, keys to the house and sent on their way. They were followed 5 weeks later and neither parent had managed to get a job, but the children were in school.

Have any of you experienced full schools in your locale and your own child cannot be admitted? Thousands have.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:39

I would LOVE to hear the Queen's opinion at this point. Remember the brief video of her telling off William? Maybe they could turn her loose on all the party leaders and higher ups, and she could tell them off. I can just imagine it.... "Get out there and do your duty! One does not neglect one's public! You made this mess, clean it up!" while waggling her finger at them.

Grin
GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:41

Diana if you want to debate the Romanian family, perhaps you could start your own thread about it, rather than go on about it in here. Thanks.

TheNorthRemembers · 26/06/2016 12:42

Well, you can say the same thing about the Queen. I know she has to be politically neutral, but could not she intervene in the interest of national security and the unity of her kingdom? We pay her well enough to get involved.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:46

I am surprised she's not spoken out yet, but I was wondering if she was telling the politicians they needed to, and they've simply not done it. I expect to see her giving a speech soon, with an exasperated tone, and a glare in the direction of the party leaders.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:48

I kind of feel badly for her. She's focused her entire life on service to the country (let's not into an argument over whether or not we should have royalty on this though, eh? it would utterly derail things) and at her age, she's seeing the prospect of the country being torn apart with Scotland looking at another indyref and Ireland talking about border polls.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 12:50

Didn't Queen indicate she was in favour of Leave, what with that Dinner Party quote about "Tell us what the Europeans ever did for us" ... Or was that just headline click bait?

SpaceKablooie · 26/06/2016 12:51

Jeez, it's not the Queen's role to say anything at all publicly about this Confused. It's completely irrelevant what she thinks.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:53

Meh. I think we give Cameron 24 hours to stop pouting and start being a PM, and if he doesn't, we just hand it all back to the Queen and let her get on with it. Grin

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 12:55

Space no, she can't choose sides, however, she COULD appear and appeal to the people to remain calm and such. It couldn't hurt. I suppose she's weighing up whether it would help or hurt at this point.

SpaceKablooie · 26/06/2016 13:00

Well, I don't think that an unelected elite aristocrat telling everyone to keep calm is what we need at the moment Grin.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 13:02

That's why I said I didn't know if it would hurt or help. Confused

kittybiscuits · 26/06/2016 13:03

There are some very charitable views of DC's actions here. He handed Boris some kind of nuclear shirty stick.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 13:12

I'm reading this article about NS saying SNP could possibly veto/block the exit from the EU. Is she not risking lighting a match to a very big pile of kindling with that??

MajesticWhine · 26/06/2016 13:12

Why should DC try to deal with the fallout? He has worked his pants off to try and win a Remain vote. He has done the correct thing to resign. He has not won backing for his arguments so his position is untenable. I think he has made a terrible mistake offering the referendum in the first place. But we've moved on now. Boris and Gove need to step up and sort out this shit. They wanted this, they have to take responsibility.

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