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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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Dumdedumdedum · 26/06/2016 09:53

Completely agree, GingerIvy, it's as if there's no-one "in charge" at the moment and the Far Right racists feel they can get away with anything as there's nothing and no-one to stop them.

MarshaBrady · 26/06/2016 09:54

Interesting op

Tanith · 26/06/2016 09:56

Nicky Morgan is thinking of going for leadership??? Shock

In God's name, why does she think she's any way suitable to lead her Party? About the only positive thing most people can find to say about her is that she isn't Gove!

HalsallRedux · 26/06/2016 09:57

PhilPhil snap. Near me is a very affluent small town in the London commuter belt. Think Waitrose, major independent school, eye-watering house prices, a distinct lack of non-white faces. Overheard the woman behind the counter in a shop yesterday discussing result with friend - both over 70, the demographic which according to reports has overwhelmingly voted out. Her comments included: 'well, I'm glad we're out because what if all those Turks came over here? It's a whole different way of life, isn't it?’ And similar sentiments. Friend nodding agreement.

Beyond depressing.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 09:58

I am actually quite concerned about their absence. The infighting is not abating in the public, the parties are all fighting for position within themselves (I will point out again, people, NICKY MORGAN looking to be put forward for the leadership of the Tories!!!!), and while Cameron made a statement about steering the ship, it seems the wheel is spinning wildly as nobody is there.

Why are they not being called out to step up and lead the country. It IS still their job!

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:00

Tanith I know. I'm hoping the rumours that she is kind of a puppet that the Tories trotted out to take blame for their decisions will mean that she doesn't have the Tory backing to take leadership.

But hey, if she did, the Remain voters could maybe see their wish to have people tested before voting, eh? Hmm

InShockReally · 26/06/2016 10:03

RedTooth, google searches in the last few days have suggested people don't know what the EU is. They don't know what it does or how it helps or how it's now built into the fabric of our society. They don't know how to see through bullshit or think for themselves. Surely this is the type of stuff we should be doing at schools?

I think education has failed us - increasingly tick-box, don't think for yourself attitudes getting from one exam to the next. The poorer schools are pretty much crowd control and students are lucky to leave with a few GCSEs. That's not to be rude to teachers, just the whole damn setup.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:08

Google does not check to see if you voted (or what you voted) prior to allowing you to search for the EU. Loads of people do searches - students, people looking up facts to back up arguments or counter arguments, even people who live in the UK but were unable to vote for whatever reason. I don't think it's helpful to assume that it's all people that made "uninformed votes." It just plays into the arguments and division between everyone.

TheDuchessOfKidderminster · 26/06/2016 10:09

The fact that voter turn out for the 18-25 age bracket seems to have been less than 50% also suggests a failure in education.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:15

It also suggests an apathy towards government. There's a strong possibility that a lot of people in that age group feel that the government is not interested in what happens to them - benefits cut, lower wages, university fees, student loans and the changes being made to them, higher rate of unemployment. I would have thought that while it will push some into action - voting and being more involved in pushing for changes in government - it will also push a fair number into a feeling of "why bother? we're fucked anyway."

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 10:18

Younger people voted how?
People with a higher education level voted how?

Education didn't fail us.

Apathy was far more of an issue in reality.

whattheseithakasmean · 26/06/2016 10:28

It is interesting that Scotland and London voted remain and Nicola Sturgeon has been in contact with Sadiq Khan. I am wondering if Scotland can negotiate to stay in the EU and the Finance HQs in London relocate to Edinburgh, which already has a strong finance sector.

I don't want the UK to break up, but I don't want to lose my European passport. I don't support the SNP, but Nicola Sturgeon does have a clear mandate to try and keep us in the EU. I don't see how a second indyref can be avoided if the Westminster government invokes Article 50 and England and Wales could find themselves very isolated and impoverished, which no one wants. What were they thinking????

InShockReally · 26/06/2016 10:30

Can I just ask people again (as I think someone up thread did) to write to their MP? It doesn't have to be a long flowery email or contact-us page comment; just point out your views (whatever they are) and ask them to consider them.

God knows if they'll be able to read through them all but I bet at least one junior staffer will take a quick scan and give headline figures to them!

areyoubeingserviced · 26/06/2016 10:30

In shock.
Schools now have to inform children about democracy, the rule of law and criminal and civil law.
My dd (12) studies citizenship at school and is really interested in politics . So there is hope for the future

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:30

I don't think the EU will want to play ball with Scotland. They are still connected to England, and they won't know how closely until the second indyref goes through. I think the EU will talk a good game, but absolutely will not even consider it until that's taken care of.

InShockReally · 26/06/2016 10:30

Apathy is a result of education partly though isn't it?

I agree they didn't think their vote would count.

InShockReally · 26/06/2016 10:31

(Agh posted too soon)

... In a number of cases. Hard to guess how many were protest votes though now!

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 10:33

IDS seemed to be slithering his way back in this morning. He's been 'dead in the water' so many times that he probably doesn't think anything will ever finish him off.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:43

IDS? What's his take on this then? I don't think he'll inspire much trust in people, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

DianaRoss · 26/06/2016 10:45

"That is why I want to make clear that the Liberal Democrats will fight the next election on a clear and unequivocal promise to restore Britain’s prosperity and role in the world, with the United Kingdom in the European Union, not outside it."

No way would I ever vote LibDem. I worked with and knew Ed Davey, ex-MP for Surbiton & Kingston; he left our firm to become an MP. The LibDems do not believe in anything, that's the point; they do 'window dressing' and convey that they are liberalist. Yes, so liberalist that they have no concern and real beliefs in any issue. A senior member of staff, a woman, said to him something along the lines that hopefully atsome stage he would do some work towards pay equality. Davey went Yeah, right and smirked.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:46

They do seem to change direction depending on whichever way the wind blows.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 10:47

I've heard someone say they were the Stanleys of the political arena. Had to stop and think for a moment on that.

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 10:50

IDS thinks we should get on with it.

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 10:50

I heard IDS say on the radio on Friday "been there, done that" about the leadership while sniggering so he doesn't want to do it either.
inshock "We tend to talk of "the nazis" like they were this evil group of people who just randomly appeared and murdered everyone horribly - and use it as a phrase to win/lose arguments on the Internet. But it was a real movement that started small, took over, and then was mostly just ordinary citizens swept along, forced, or manipulated in for the ride." Very true.

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 10:52

The 18-25 bracket contains lots of people who had problems registering to vote because they didn't know their NI number. The govt have started sending them in letter form and lots of people have lost them. So I'm not sure low voter numbers = apathy

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