Article 50 will never be invoked now, will it?

[neverknowinglywrong]

Talk about a poisoned chalice for the new leader.

I voted leave. I am very annoyed Cameron reneged on his promise to invoke it ASAP.

It's not going to happen.

[ProfessorPreciseaBug]

I always remember Cameron stomping out of the Paris Summit all by himself shortly after he got into No10. He looked isolated then and he is isolated now.

After he came out yesterrday and anounced his resignation, he has created the conditions for Article 50 to be invoked.

Separately, Junkers was arrogant the night before the poll. He is arrogant now. He is out of touch with Europe.

[Mistigri]

I think there is a chance that the OP is right.

Cameron said he was going to invoke article 50 immediately, but his resignation has put paid to that, and with every passing day it becomes less likely. Why?

• Firstly, the Tory party have to elect a determined Eurosceptic who's prepared to press the eject button - and it's not obvious that they will. Boris is not really a Eurosceptic, and the obvious unity candidate (May) isn't Eurosceptic at all.
  

• Secondly, there are already signs of buyers' remorse setting in. If there are signs of economic distress between now and October, and lots of people starting to doubt the wisdom of leaving, will the new PM really want to use the nuclear option?

[OddBoots]

But in the mean time aren't we having to pay our 'fees' while not having a hope of getting funding from the EU for UK based research, projects and events? Why the delay?

[Mistigri]

I don't know that that's the case oddboots. Legally until article 50 is invoked our relationship with the EU is unchanged, though obviously politically things are different.

[neverknowinglywrong]

Mistigiri, that's exactly what I mean by a poisoned chalice.

I think that with every day that passes, the likelihood of Article 50 being invoked gets smaller and smaller.

I'm going to call it - we will never leave Europe!

[Mistigri]

From the Guardian live blog just now - and remember that Liam Fox is the darling of the brexiteers, he's been promoted as a potential future PM by some of the more vocal leave astroturfers on here:

On another front, Liam Fox has cast doubt on the necessity of triggering the article 50 clause of the Lisbon treaty that sets out the legal process for a country’s EU withdrawal.

“A lot of things were said in advance of this referendum that we might want to think about again and that [invoking article 50] is one of them,” said the Conservative MP.

[Mistigri]

So never your username may turn out to be apt ;)

[ricketytickety]

Can the EU kick us out? Can they vote and decide we have to leave?

The leave campaign obvs didn't think they would actually win. They underestimated the amount of people fed up with the establishment. Sadly, in voting leave they voted for the establishment. It's all one big cock up.

So now the EU have decisions to make. They won't want other countries following suit. They will want the best trade deals for their union if we leave. They will owe us nothing.

If 'we' decide not to leave, we will have to make some major concessions to stay in.

So we're screwed either way and I don't think the leave campaign will have actually genuinely wanted to really leave. Lots of the leave voters are saying this themselves.

[Mistigri]

I don't think the EU can just kick us out (although they may be looking at what legal wriggle-room exists).

There are mechanisms for sanctioning countries who don't stick to the rules for eg on free movement. But I can't think that anyone sane would want to provoke sanctions while remaining in the EU - it would be the worst of both worlds.

Basically having done a bit of reading about this - they can't push us before we jump. And given the absence of a functuoning parachute, there seems to be little appetite for jumping. We'll have to wait and see.

[MeMySonAndl]

Well, this is just like telling your partner you want a divorce and partner replying "Great! Pack your bags and leave ASAP"

I really find it incomprehensible that people are now saying, well actually, we want out but not just yet, a plan should have been thought of before we launched ourselves into this endeavour.

If it suits the EU they will allow us some time but if it doesn't, why would they? The relationship is over, we are not in the same position to bargain as we were on Wednesday.

[justbogoff]

They can'take believe they won, and have no plan to exit.
But how can they not? This is what the British people (well the English and the Welsh anyway), voted for.

[Chalalala]

between now and the Autumn, there's plenty of time for the public to start realising the real economic implications of this decision. The first relocations and redundancies will make the news, the uncertainty will be bad for the pound and the markets, etc.

If the opinions polls were to shift significantly in the meantime, then it could be a very different political situation come sept/oct.

And most importantly, none of the potential Tory leaders actually want to trigger Article 50, so they won't do it until they're absolutely forced to.

The one thing that could force them to, though, is the uncertainty itself and the havoc it will wreak on the economy until this thing is settled one way or the other.

[BungoWomble]

It's pathetic isn't it. The country voted leave, the EU's said 'clear off then, don't let the door hit you on your way out' and now the twit who started it all and the bigger twerps who pushed the ball as fast and far as they could want to stop to reconsider.

Er no. You did it. Congratulations Tories, you've fucked the country. Perhaps if one good thing comes of this it'll be that Tory particularly, London generally, politicians finally realise that actions have consequences, and the rest of the country outside London exists, and it's not all just a bloody game for Eton schoolboys.

It'll be triggered op, don't worry.

[smallfox1980]

On the establishment and elite narrative.

This has been a very, very clever bit of spin ( and I know you HATE spin Claig but it is), in Sunderland and in other areas people who hadn't voted since Thatcher came out to "kick the establishment".

The establishment rhetoric was effectively stolen from Trump's campaign in the states and it appeals there for the same reasons it appeals to people here.

People in many of the areas voting out feel like they have been abandoned by the ruling elites, the well paid (but very hard work) jobs their fathers had, destroyed by globalisation and automation, were replaced with low paid work that is insecure. Housing has become more insecure with the shift away from a widely available stock of low cost social housing to much more expensive and insecure private rents. They did not respond to economic warnings of risks and uncertainty because their lives are uncertain anyway and they do not own any of the assets like private pension plans and homes that the middle classes do.

Further to this, they were galvanised by the immigration debate, all of the things blamed upon immigration are actually national government decisions on spending on public services, or as a result of global economic forces such as wages not rising which is more to do with the fall out of the 2008 crash (otherwise why did wages rise in the UK between 2004 and 2008 when immigration from the EU8 was high?) . Very little of what immigration is blamed for is actually a result of immigration, but the effects of the public spending cuts have been felt far more in areas that have economic deprivation than they have in other are using immigration as an excuse has been politically convenient.

In both the Brexit and Trump campaign promising cuts to immigration and getting at the elites has been a largely successful. Its no wonder when the real issue is inequality, the USA and the UK are some of the most unequal developed economies is the world. The benefits of economic growth have not been felt in these areas, and what they see is the rich getting richer (the wealth of those at the top has trebled since 2010) whilst their lives get harder, this is exacerbated by the materialistic society we live in, and the easy availability of credit from effective usurers such as Brighthouse and Wonga.

The problem is with all of this that voting to kick the establishment will just be a case of "here comes the new boss, same as the old boss." Look at who the candidates are, Eton, Oxford and Bullingdon Borris Johnson, Oxford Union President and Lord Chancelor Michael Gove. privately educated and Oxford Theresa May. Donald Trump is the son of a millionaire.

All of these candidates are notoriously neo-liberal in their approach to economics and public services. Expect to see a bonfire of the regulations concerning workers rights, and changes in the delivery of public services. Those voting to kick out at the elites and establishment because they feel abandoned by the system will be the ones worse effected by any changes.

It can therefore be concluded that the elites and establishment narrative is not just empty rhetoric but also makes those leading the campaign guilty of moral hazard in their campaign, they have encouraged a course of action which risks none of their own personal well being, but puts that of many of their voters in jeopardy.

[chantico]

It is like getting a divorce.

One party says the marriage is over, but at that point they are still married and under the same roof. They then go into mediation to decide how to separate assets and make contact arrangements etc, with both staying in the marital home and being civilised to each other until there is some idea how the split will actually work.

The timing of launch of the legal proceedings may depend on the progress of mediation. As does the timing of when someone moves out and what they take with them.

Acrimony only obstructs things, and usually makes no difference to the actual division of assets or contact arrangements, other than to slow it down and make it more expensive.

[claig]

smallfox, that is not really right.

The elites and Establishment narrative has been around for years and years and it has only caught hold widely over the past three or four years. It has been in Europe that the populist movements were most successful and Farage a few years ago reaped the benefit of the anti-establishment mood and started to use the language people were already using. Trump is a very latecomer to the anti-establishment anti-elite scene and America is a latecomer, apart from having had Ross Perot all the way back in 1992. The difference is that Trump has taken things to a different level because he is in the United States and all the tinpot elites and Establishments across Europe are chicken feed compared to the United States which is why word "leaders" are reported to be "terrified" of Trump because they all know their game is up.

Fox News discussed Brexit most of last night and they rightly said that it started with Farage and spread to Trump and now Trump has reemboldened it back in Europe.

The reason it has taken hold is because it is true, the elites are ruling us for their own benefit. Gove, out of government, has started using the populist language of the people. Boris is a waste of time, but he has to play to the gallery of the people by pretending to be on their side. But the Tories are not the drivers in what has happened. Farage started it, they are followers and late to the party. The Establishment despise Farage because they fear him. He will never get into power but he has lit the torch of revolution that the people have taken up. The people are not stupid, they have led this, they have ignored the stooges and the scaremongering of the rotten elites who serve the lobbyists and banks. It has been a revolution and it happened in little old England And Wales together with a lot of Scots and Norther Irish. The whole wold is stunned, the bigwigs are shaken, the British people started a revolution against the elites.

For those who are not Daily Mail readers, it is worth reading Richard Littlejohn and Dominic Sandbrook, who wanted to Remain, in order to get an understanding of the enormity of the anti-establishment revolution that has rocked the entire world and is being reported on from Washington to Rio to Beijing. The British people done it, they ignored the stooges and they won't be fooled by Boris.

"As a historian, I can assure you this is the most tumultuous event of modern times, a people's revolt against the elite

There are times, not very often, when you can feel history being made. An archduke falls, a wall comes down, a plane hits a building, and in that moment you can feel the ground shifting beneath your feet.

When those initial results came in from Sunderland and Newcastle in the early hours of yesterday morning, I could barely believe it. Even now, to write the words 'Britain has voted to leave the EU' feels extraordinary, like a leap into some alternative reality.

For once, all the cliches are justified. This was not merely an electoral earthquake. It was a popular revolt by vast swathes of England and Wales against the political, financial and cultural elite, whose complacent assumptions have been simply blown away.
...
I cannot think of a modern political moment to match it. The fall of David Lloyd George after leading Britain through World War I until his Liberal-Tory coalition broke up in 1922, the Labour post-war landslide of 1945, the advent of Margaret Thatcher in 1979, all supposedly seismic events, feel trivial, even irrelevant, by comparison.

What makes all this so dramatic, though, is that it represents something new — a revolution by millions of people, many of them traditional working-class voters, against the massed ranks of the political and financial Establishment.

If nothing else, the result should banish for good the stereotype of British voters as deferential, forelock-tugging yokels, dutifully falling into line behind the country squire.

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3659119/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-historian-assure-tumultuous-event-modern-times-people-s-revolt-against-elite-s-brewing-years.html

The day the quiet people stood up and roared: RICHARD LITTLEJOHN praises those who have spoken on the EU referendum to devastating effect

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3659091/The-day-quiet-people-stood-roared-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-praises-spoken-EU-referendum-devastating-effect.html

We did it, we beat them, the bankers, the bigwigs, the servants, the bought and paid for, the high and mighty, the Establishment, the elites. We ignored their lies, their threats, their scares and their frights, we stuck two fingers up. We showed the world that the British people are special and the revolution that we started will one day end the EU, end the plan and schemes of the bureaucrats and schemers who had plans for all of us.

It is a revolution, a people's revolution, we defeated the elites.

[claig]

Their BBC propaganda teams from Oxbridge, paid for out of public money, couldn't save them. Nothing could stop the people's revolution. It is history in the making and it happened in England and Wales and the storms raged all over South Eastern England as the Brexiteers turned out to vote to get out.

[smallfox1980]

Which is why you are quoting Fox News and the Daily Mail? they are owned by whom? Why is it in their interest to back leaving?

You didn't defeat the elites, you were galvanised by one part of an elite into voting for something that isn't in your interests but in theirs.

It is rather sad, sorry.

[BlunderWomansCat]

All the people I know who voted out did not do so as a kicking to the establishment. It was all about 'foriners' and mythologising some bygone era.

[BlunderWomansCat]

I agree with you small.
Also Claig my mother and her cohorts who voted out are horrified by the thought of a people's revolution. I can assure you that was most definitely not their agenda. Of course they are now worried about their pensions, now the economies gone up the shitter. But don't give a damn about the consequences of their folly for subsequent generations. Really, you need to have a word with yourself.

[smallfox1980]

But blunder the establishment point was noted by people like Nick Robinson as a factor, and Claig keeps repeating it which is why I've addressed it

This isn't "The people vs the establishment.".

"We ignored their lies, their threats, their scares and their frights" but you listened to those of the other side. You listened to the £350 million a week, believed the £600 million a week regulation costs, you believed the fears about immigration, you bought into the myth of "take back control. Funny how two of those leading the campaign have said the £350 million to the NHS couldn't be guarenteed and that immigration would continue after the vote. This is the first of many disappointments.

I'd also say that the remain campaign didn't "lie" only one side got told off by the statistics authority.

[claig]

'Why is it in their interest to back leaving? '

Because even though they are far richer, wealthier and more powerful than any of us, they believe in national sovereignty, on the uniqueness of nation states, of the importance of the people controlling their own affairs, of the people being sovereign and of democracy and democratic accountability being more important than all the gold and silver in the world.

'you were galvanised by one part of an elite into voting for something that isn't in your interests but in theirs'

No, one or two of them switched sides. Gove, an honourable man had principles and joined the people, but Boris is just our for hiself. It is not in the interests of the elite, which is why Cameron had the Bank of England, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the Financial Times, the Economist, the Labour Party, the IMF, Obama Sir Blob Bogoff and Eddie Izzard all on his side. On our side, we had just Farage, Gove and Boris, but we had the millions and millions of people who could not be fooled or schooled by the Bank of England and all the rest of the hierarchy that governs us. The media laughed at us when we took our pens to the polling booths, but we didn't care because we knew they were scared and that we would have the last laugh.

'It is rather sad, sorry.'

No, it is the most magnificent democratic free act of expressopn of the people's will in decades, more tumultious than the coming of Thatcher or the post-war Labour government. Never have the people risen as they rose just now. Resignations are now coming form all quarters, all the bigwigs have been brought low by the little people so long despised by the high and mighty. All their lies and empty threats will now be exposed.

BlunderWomansCat, people voted for different reasons, but what united all the Brexiteers was we were sick of the lies and spin and we wanted to govern ourselves rather than to be governed by unaccounatble, unelected elites.

[howtorebuild]

Claig is like Cassandra.

[BlunderWomansCat]

My mother is not well read at all and couldn't even spell establishment. She was very vocal about voting out on the 'foriners' issue. Also she reads The Sun.

[smallfox1980]

Oh right I'd forgotten that Rupert Murdoch, Lord Rothmere, The Barclay Brothers and Richard Desmond were so altruistic.

Puttng the "Bank of England" which is independent up on your list shows the extent of your delusion as does the pens to polling booths thing. You really don't have a grasp of reality all that well.

It wasn't a revolution, it wasn't the "people vs the elite" in fact because of the huge amount of support the leave campaign got for the media establishment, from Lords, from big business it's self you can point to it being the opposite. The people who voted against the elite will not benefit, things will not get better, they have put their own economic prosperity at risk.

"Never have the people risen as they rose just now. Resignations are now coming form all quarters, all the bigwigs have been brought low by the little people so long despised by the high and mighty. All their lies and empty threats will now be exposed."

There have been two resignations so far, I've addressed the "lies" bit in a previous post.

You right with great hyperbole, have you considered a career in politics?