Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Mistigri, just another point. If the UK votes to leave there are two years to reach an exit agreement after the UK government officially notifies the EU. David Cameron said the government has not planned for Brexiit. That would mean the government may hold off notifying the EU until a decision has been made how to proceed delaying the start of the two year period.

STIDW I think it is likely that DC is being somewhat economical with the truth. The government may not be "planning for brexit" but it's clear that government departments and civil servants have done some scenario analysis and, presumably, contingency planning.

What happens in the event of a "no" vote is interesting. Unnamed EU sources were suggesting last week that the UK would be pushed to give immediate notice and that the EU would apply the two year rule strictly, leading to Brexit on 1st July 2018. In this case the two year period would be sufficient only for severance negotiations and not for a "new deal", leaving the UK without any formal trade agreement with the EU.

I'm reluctant to give these "unnamed sources" too much credence, partly because they are not named so it's hard to assess their credibility, and partly because what they are saying is basically that the worst case (of the three scenarios examined by the Treasury) is the most likely, at least in the short term. That is rather unsettling. I'd value your opinion on this :)

I think Springing should stop pretending to have legal expertise. As someone who is actually a lawyer, I can see through it. However, other people might be taken in by it.

Hopefully almost all adults know to question stuff they read online.

That Russia story sounded familiar... Office mate failed to get to Spain last week for a conference because her passport (not EU) had too few blank pages left in it. She last went to Spain 6 weeks earlier without issues. Was beyond gutted, out of pocket for various things on the planned 3 days holiday after the work trip.

There are more than just unnamed sources saying stuff, the French President and Trade minister, German Presisdent have all said things about there not being a trade deal without costs.

How many times does it need repeating? If we leave it will either be a EEA style deal, which doesn't suit the Brexit camp, a Canadian style deal which limits access to the common market or a WTO tariff style option, the final two don't work in our favour at all.

n this case the two year period would be sufficient only for severance negotiations and not for a "new deal", leaving the UK without any formal trade agreement with the EU.

I think the UK will vote to Remain, but it depends on the turnout & undecided voters. If we vote to leave I hope that the posturing will end so that sensible negotiations can take place & agreement reached. There would need to be compromise & Brexiters wont get everything they want.

The trouble is that the remaining EU countries will have to try and ensure that we are worse off out than in. It's not punishment, it's self-preservation. Any UK deal which looks more attractive than full EU membership will encourage other countries to leave and threaten the whole future of the EU.

Hopefully almost all adults know to question stuff they read online.

Unfortunately they don't & some of the posters are very young adults. There have been issues in the past of barrack room lawyers creating the impression of having legal expertise & giving advice with very serious repercussions. That's why Mumsnet has a disclaimer on the legal section & some of the lawyers who reply there have verified each other. Perhaps it would be an idea to have a disclaimer on all the topic headers.

"The trouble is that the remaining EU countries will have to try and ensure that we are worse off out than in. It's not punishment, it's self-preservation. Any UK deal which looks more attractive than full EU membership will encourage other countries to leave and threaten the whole future of the EU."

I agree.

I'm working on what Butteredmuffin said above so will be looking at getting German passports for my DC in the event of Brexit as I have dual nationality so I think they're entitled to one.

I agree with STIDW and Buttered.

There is no way that the UK will be offered a deal that is more beneficial than those inside the EU, which is basically what the brexit camp think will happen.

The most worrying thing is if this doesn't suit those negotiating that we might come out altogether, this is not the 1970's and Tariffs are not that high but it could have detrimental results on the UK and no matter what our level of FDI will go down. Another certain thing is that the city of London will no longer be the largest Euro trader, that will be moved inside the boundaries of the EU, and this will have an effect too.

Only 6 per cent of UK companies do business with the EU. And there's the rest of the world outside Little Europe For the last 10 years, the EU has been a declining market for UK exporters.

That % statistic is again a misrepresentation of the data, when you consider that 4.1 million registered businesses in the UK employ only 1 person, 76 % of businesses do not employ anyone else except the owner. Many of these are service roviuders like hairdressers, plumbers, electricians, gardiners etc. Now they may not do direct business with the EU but they'll rely at some point on imports from the EU and for the product standards to be correct. SME's may be the largest employers in the UK, but they only make up 47% of private sector turnover.

Its a good attempt to mislead through statistics again ( I bet it came from Danniel Hannan) but very easy to show that it doesn't actually mean what you think it does.

In contrast the majority of the CBI think being in the EU is a good thing!

SO lets just further that "all businesses have to follow EU regulations thing" the ones that export to the EU are the most effected, many , many of the SME's that trade will not have to follow very much EU regulation at all. So the point is rather erroneous.

The trouble is that the remaining EU countries will have to try and ensure that we are worse off out than in. It's not punishment, it's self-preservation

Trying to ensure that we are worse off out than in is trying to impose a penalty for our action of leaving. A penalty is a punishment.

The Lisbon Treaty under which we will be negotiating our exit prohibits punishments. The World Trade organisation also prohibits punitive actions against another member.

If we leave, whatever deal we end up with will be either more beneficial or less beneficial to us than what we have now. It's a fairly binary concept. The EU are under no obligation to give us a better deal, and indeed, to do so would be political self-sabotage. So we will have a worse deal. It's quite obvious. Nothing to do with WTO rules. We can have a worse deal with the EU than we currently have and still be well within the WTO rules, because the WTO rules would give us a less beneficial deal than we have now, as part of the EU.

all businesses have to follow EU regulations

Most regulations are technical which only apply to certain sectors. If a business doesn't operate in a particular sector they aren't affected by the rules regulating it. If we leave the EU some regulations including rights or protections may be scrapped or amended but many others will be kept. What voters need to consider specifically is what rights & protections they could lose.

Relying solely on the WTO would be particularly damaging given that much of our economy is based on services & the WTO has managed to open up little trade in services, particularly finance.

If we leave, whatever deal we end up with will be either more beneficial or less beneficial to us than what we have now.

True

It's a fairly binary concept. The EU are under no obligation to give us a better deal, and indeed, to do so would be political self-sabotage.

I don't expect a better deal. I expect a mutually acceptable that may be better or worse than that at present, depending on how well we and they negotiate.

So we will have a worse deal.

The opposite of a better deal is not a worse deal. It could be neutral.

It's quite obvious. Nothing to do with WTO rules. We can have a worse deal with the EU than we currently have and still be well within the WTO rules, because the WTO rules would give us a less beneficial deal than we have now, as part of the EU.

We don't have a seat on the WTO while we are in the EU. Until you add up the costs and the savings, the direct and indirect benefits, such as being able to make trade deals with the rest of the world, that will arise from the renegotiated deal as part of our Brexit process and as a result of being unshackled from EU trade constraints, it's impossible to say whether the deal will be better or not.

The opposite of a better deal is not a worse deal. It could be neutral.

Somebody else wanna handle this one for me? I'm losing the will to live again.

The EU is not going to grant us full access to the single market without concessions on freedom of movement and contributions.

The WTO access as previously stated doesn't make provision for services, our biggest export to the EU and the rest of the world.

"it's impossible to say whether the deal will be better or not."

But we can use precedent, the vast wieght of economic analysis, and statements by EU leaders to deduce that it is very likely to be worse.

The opposite of a better deal is not a worse deal. It could be neutral.

Somebody else wanna handle this one for me? I'm losing the will to live again

^^^More personal abuse from Buttered ^^^

"More personal abuse from Buttered."

You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

The EU is not going to grant us full access to the single market without concessions on freedom of movement and contributions.

The EU does not control the European Economic Area.

The WTO access as previously stated doesn't make provision for services, our biggest export to the EU and the rest of the world.

The single market in services has not yer been completed.

"it's impossible to say whether the deal will be better or not."

But we can use precedent, the vast wieght of economic analysis, and statements by EU leaders to deduce that it is very likely to be worse

Some, not all. Some see a very bright future outside the EU.

"More personal abuse from Buttered."

You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means

^^^More personal abuse and bullying from Buttered - the trainee EU lawyer ^^