Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 6

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuation of previous threads to discuss VAT on independent school fees.

I mean, sure. It might change the pattern of private school use.

But financially, either way - whether 10% of families decide not to use private school at all versus 20% of families decide to use private school for only half the years they would have (or any other combination) - it doesn't really make any difference to the financial cost to the government.

What matters is that if private school participation drops by 10% long term, then the policy costs money instead of making it.

Also those choosing not to start when they thought they might - reception, year 3, year 7 - will they enter at next break point? Ultimately depends on their experience at the state school they have chosen/been given. We were hoping for private at secondary but forced into it by terrible experience at local state primary.

Basic economics says that you make choices about how to use your resources. And that you choose the way to use your resources which brings you most utility, taking the entirety of the choice into consideration. It really isn't just about cash.

If parents were previously keeping their kids at private school - but now aren't due to VAT - their choice preference (the choice that gives them most satisfaction) is:

1. Keep the DC at private school with school fees but no VAT
2. Move to a state school - which involves disruption to DC - but no fees
3. Keep the DC at private school with school fees and having to pay VAT in addition.

The government policy to add VAT to private education has taken away choice 1. So they've chosen their next preference - 2.

But they are obviously getting less utility from (2) than they were from (1) previously... otherwise the preference order would switch (1) and (2), and they would already have moved before VAT.

We're not all private school parents on this thread.

I have a SEN DD who has been entirely educated in the state system so far and will continue to be.

I just dislike bad policy that serves no-one and is actively detrimental to multiple groups.

Given the conversations I have had this week, other Y11 state parents are increasingly concerned at how much more competitive it suddenly is for 6th form places (huge numbers from private schools applying for this September) and having seen up close the issues with getting any support for SEN, the system cannot cope at the moment without adding substantial numbers from the 20% SEN in private schools now needing extra support and/or exacerbating the EHCP pathway issues.

Not that I have any beef with the individual children - who are all fully entitled to a state place and state SEN support - but the government seem to be saying 'screw you' to all sides here.

Yes agree. There’s poor policy from the state perspective that’s the problem,

@Walkaround their are state school parents on this thread.

My main concern as a state school parent has always been:

1. overwhelm of state schools in the high birth years, especially Sixth Form this year and next year and there simply not being enough places for lowering performing state school students or those who just got worse GCSE results than expected
2. the 1million taxpayers who are the parents of private school kids radically adjusting their behaviours taxation wise in reaction to this vindictive policy on their children. Because that COULD really hurt all of us. Whilst Labour are clearly shit scared of the pensioner vote, I find this one money wise far more scary.

There are also parents who use both state and private like myself. It’s a lose lose situation for both sectors.

Yes agree.

@Araminta1003 ,

1. overwhelm of state schools in the high birth years, especially Sixth Form this year and next year and there simply not being enough places for lowering performing state school students or those who just got worse GCSE results than expected’

Fewer underperforming students attempting advanced level work would be a bonus for everyone! The reality is that if you can’t achieve a 7 at GCSE in a subject, you should not attempt an A level.

One of the biggest cons and most financially destructive things in recent years has been the expansion of academic study, especially universities, for people who are not remotely suited to it.

Most 18-21 year olds should be working and contributing to GDP, not studying and building debt.And most 16-18 year olds should be in vocational training of some form.

And then we can go back to free uni education for the 10-20% who will benefit from it. This is a massive issue that no one talks about.

1. the 1million taxpayers who are the parents of private school kids radically adjusting their behaviours taxation wise in reaction to this vindictive policy on their children. Because that COULD really hurt all of us. Whilst Labour are clearly shit scared of the pensioner vote, I find this one money wise far more scary.’

I don’t think 95% of parents use their finances as some kind of war chest against government policy. Most ate neither that political nor that vindictive. They will spend to benefit their families and have a decent life. You are in a tiny minority here (with a few others on this thread who will protest the same and never actually do it).

As the outcome of the high court case will be announced at 10am on Friday, I thought it'd be a good time to review the damage so far

Scores of schools closed:
https://spikessightwords.com/private-schools-that-have-closed-due-to-vat/
with two more announced yesterday
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/two-london-private-schools-are-forced-to-close-following-labours-vat-raid-on-fees-b1231931.html
and I gather another, bishopstrow, just announced today.

13000 children have already had their educations disrupted, with thousands more to follow:
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/private-school-exodus-of-13000-dwarfs-ministers-predictions-sm6pf5qv5

All for the sake of spite. The Reeves sisters' childhood grudge against the private school pupils who beat them at chess ("snobs", you know), Angela Raynor's class warfare, and a hypocritical prime minister who benefitted from a bursary to a private school himself, but now seeks to pull the ladder of opportunity up out of others' reach. And an education secretary who has only ever had jobs through nepotism who is too craven to do anything other than what she's told. A petty, malicious act of national vandalism.

University education was not just about the education. It was meant to mix classes up so that there are more marriages between working and middle and upper middle classes. If you want to get rid of the class system, that is what you need to do, regardless of cost. It also built a huge academic circle here which is worth having. At the same time, I do agree that vocational courses are really important and that children should not be pushed towards academics for the sake of it.
I do not want to turn this into an ageist debate again. But this country has not got the balance right whatsoever between the old and the young and it is going to start costing a lot in terms of political turmoil.

@Newbutoldfather - I am not in a minority. A lot of middle class people millennial and younger are simply putting quality of life and themselves above society now. It is just not worth working extra for everyone else. I think Gen X had that extra ambition/pull to success in them. Millenials and younger, no interest in paying for everyone else whilst the older generations hog all the wealth and political power.

It's not necessarily a case of not having a 7 to go on to A levels.

There is a significantly sized cohort of kids who are not 'all rounders' - they're getting 7-9 grades in the subjects they are good at and want to study at A level, but lower grades in others.

When you have state schools setting the bar at 6 x 7-9 grades including English and Maths for 6th form, what happens to the kid who is getting a 9 in Maths, Further Maths and Sciences, but cannot get English Language above a 4? Are they unsuitable for university?

Or the child who gets 9s in English, History, RS etc but is going to get a 3 in Maths? Are they unsuited to higher education?

There are also plenty of children with SEN who are just unsuited to GCSE exams despite having very high IQ. DD is going to come out with 6 GCSEs and a BTEC - they will be all over the place in terms of grades. However she is already holding offers for BMus and she's only just turned 16. Perhaps the universities are wrong and she should look at childcare or plumbing instead?

@OhCrumbsWhereNow - you are absolutely right. We should be celebrating every child and their potential and giving all of them the opportunity and choices to success, in whatever field they want to and feel passionate about. It is even more important now that less children are being born. Gen Z and young Millenials are already voting with their feet by not having children. Part of that is not just money. A lot of it is because society does not support them enough, plunges them into debt (mortgage, uni etc) and there is no village to support them properly. Too much division, not enough support, too much pandering to the old in society.
I want the young to get a vote and for politics to be on the curriculum. We need that urgently.

At the same time I also agree that university has become a ridiculous industry and is saddling too many with ludicrous amounts of debt for often dubious qualifications.

There need to be different routes. What happened to the old City & Guilds? HNDs?

Education is always valuable - but universities offering 6 hours lectures a week and an essay a term in exchange for 70k plus are taking the proverbial.

You'd be a lot better off becoming a train driver on 75k a year than going to University of Nowhere and coming out with a law degree.

People are replying to my point that fewer people should study A levels and access tertiary education with very bizarre anecdotes.

Of course, talented mathematicians should go on to study Maths and talented musicians study music (though, judging by the musicians I know, it is pretty thankless in terms of a career for the vast majority).

But anecdote doesn’t make data. Most who aren’t strong at GCSEs aren’t good at A levels either. The boards publish the mapping of grades in each subject and even those getting 7s are unlikely to achieve better than a B at A levels either. And if you achieve a B at A level, university shouldn’t be for you! Again, obviously there are exceptions but they are few and far between.

As for classes mixing at uni, they don’t really! Most middle class people choose other middle class people to mix with and marry. One of the exceptions is at the top universities, which are selected on intelligence and potential. There is far more class mixing there. And they wouldn’t be affected if only 10-20% of people went to uni.

In fact, free uni, and even bringing back grants in scarcity subjects (at least) would encourage far more poor but talented students into uni.

It really is, thanks for this post.

Governments are lobbying Trump to stop his 20 per cent “revenge” tax in the Big Beautiful Bill (including the British Government), but apparently a 20 per cent revenge tax here on private schools here will have no impact…

So @EasternStandard @Lebr1 - of course you are absolutely right. But what to do?

@Araminta1003 ,

‘Governments are lobbying Trump to stop his 20 per cent “revenge” tax in the Big Beautiful Bill (including the British Government), but apparently a 20 per cent revenge tax here on private schools here will have no impact…’

So do you agree with Trump’s argument that VAT is effectively a tariff?

I, and most others don’t, for what it is worth.

@Newbutoldfather - I do not agree with Trump one bit! However, what I am pointing out is that our Government is panicking by Trump imposing a 20 per cent tax on businesses and the economic impact of that, but at the same time, they are imposing a tax on private school parents to the same effect, and pretending it will have no impact on those schools or those parents.
Any sudden 20 per cent penalty/levy/revenge tax is going to create chaos, that is exactly why they are lobbing Trump.

It doesn’t have to be classed as the same thing to have a damaging impact.

It’s still 20%.

@EasternStandard ,

‘It doesn’t have to be classed as the same thing to have a damaging impact.
It’s still 20%.’

That is not why tariffs are damaging. They are damaging because they are discriminatory.

If British goods go up 20%, people will choose cheaper American goods on the margin.

Private schools don’t have paid for competition.

Of course a higher price point will put some off or make it unaffordable for some, but they can’t substitute and choose another paid for school without VAT (with very very very few exceptions, before people post links to government owned boarding schools!).

You are making the same mistake as Trump here in seeing VAT as a tariff.

I’m not even if you keep saying how others are seeing it. I haven’t posted VAT = tariff once.

I have posted 20% is damaging, closes schools and loses jobs. The same would damage any sector. For some reason posters rub their hands when it’s children’s education.

Which is baffling as it it’s so defeating. Just so odd.

@EasternStandard ,

So would you like VAT scrapped as a tax in general and more income tax/wealth tax/inheritance tax instead?

@Newbutoldfather - there is an alternative to private education. It is catchment based outstanding state comprehensive or grammar school education, supplemented with tutoring/extra curricular and to do that, often mums, in particular, work part time.
That is precisely the choices many parents up and down the country make every day. It is also why only 50% of the top 1% of earners use private schools. People make the choice.
Now state education seems to be the better option, precisely because the Government imposed a penalty on private education of 20 per cent. So you forego your state school entitlement for your children, plus are expected to pay for other people’s kids, even if those other people are richer than you.

So actually the Trump analogy does work here.
Therefore, not only those priced out of state education will switch. It is precisely those making the choice now who are incentivised to choose differently because of this penalty on private schools.

I haven’t posted that either because VAT on other goods doesn’t put the extra burden on the state and therefore the tax payer.

People do switch, plus the damage to the sector.

Other countries recognise this burden and use taxes in a better way. We’re the outlier.