No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

It probably won't, but you will most certainly be paying more for school places occupied by middle class children. Enjoy your tax bill! 😁

I suspect when it comes to September the state system won't be overwhelmed.

I have never seen it suggested that the state system would be overwhelmed. That is not the point. The point is the Labour based their justification for VAT on an incredibly flawed and biased report, written by the Labour minister’s Best Man and that they claimed was independent, that stated it would raise £££ for state schools when it was a) very unlikely to do so and b) they could never direct the money would be spent that way by devolved administrations.

If you are referring to the size of the selection pools shrinking back due to some people now being priced out, you could equally argue that they would have been more academically elite to date had every child had access to them as the selection pools would have been a lot larger. Therefore, same principle, it's just that the parameters have shifted.

Many of the oldest schools (eg Eton, Harrow) only became academically elite when they had to start attracting the middle classes following the decline of the aristocracy in the first half of last century. Academics achievement didn’t really matter to the landed aristocracy.

A small number of 'extra' state school places will possibly mean I need to pay a miniscule amount more tax. I can't whip up much angst about a few pennies, sorry!

“A small number of 'extra' state school places will possibly mean I need to pay a miniscule amount more tax. I can't whip up much angst about a few pennies, sorry!”

@baital - I do not think the 8k extra per year per child is the tax issue.
UK private schools are prestigious and a deterrent to use them means less additional rate tax payers stay in the country or come here in the first place. That is where the significant tax loss risk lies.

You have to look at it, internationally speaking. Let’s say Spain is massively growing its private education sector and so is Dubai etc. We currently rank way above them. If we lose our rankings in 10 years time, that has massive implications for the economy as a whole, long term.
People on here sneer about places like Dubai as being a cultural and educational desert. That is no longer the case. They are specifically building those aspects up as they know to attract the right kind of people, you need that aspect too. You may think they are never going to be able to compete culturally with London. That is not a 100 per cent certainty if they manage to attract all the right people in the future.

It is pretty much the same argument with the non Doms - Labour promised billions coming from non Doms paying tax. None of that will materialise and NHS and welfare cuts will have to make up for that “fully costed” lie.

Anyone who is in a position to move to Dubai, can easily afford VAT on school fees.
No European Govt can compete with 0% rate tax regimes.

Removing your children from the UK and putting them in a middle eastern country, with all its restrictions.... good parenting that!!!

My brother has worked in Saudi and UAE, its ok, with the ability to earn very large amounts of money but its also incredibly hot & culturally restrictive, it can never compete with a European country on culture, climate & countryside.

The screams of the wealthy trying to avoid tax, even after their shouts of "the state sector will be overwhelmed" have been proven to untrue is quite funny.

Labour are struggling and now going for welfare cuts and cutting state costs.

Their anti growth policies have wiped out headroom so it's not all good for them at all.

Those who are pro their policies no matter what are likely pro welfare cuts too, those at the receiving end of those cuts probably feel differently.

The fact remains that the wealthy are leaving the UK at an accelerated pace since Labour was voted in. Targeting ‘those with the broadest shoulders’ is great rhetoric but poor policy for public finance.

They are also struggling with teacher vacancies so the promises of 6500 new ones may well go down the pan

So if all these policies just end up with lower funding and cuts what's the point?

www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/13/teacher-vacancy-rates-record-high-england-report

It isn't funny at all. Massive cuts are coming - to the education budget, to SEND, to welfare, for all kinds to things relating to children. REGARDLESS of VAT. The state simply doesn't have the money to support it all. The VAT won't raise anything, and state schools will suffer anyway, with more and more pushed into the system. All our taxes will go up - very naive to think this won't happen very soon.

The true winners of course are the very wealthy, whose private schools will get better and better and the rest of us will live in continued "enshittification". In a few years, their children (and the children of all wealthy state school parents who can privately tutor every subject under the sun) will be the only ones with stellar degrees and qualifications. The state system will simply worsen, despite higher taxes for everyone.

Yep. Funny it ain't.

The UK shouldn't need 6500 extra teachers if the Tories had done their job.

Amazing how anyone can think that teacher shortages can be addressed inside 8 months....

Amazing that Labour is bigging up welfare cuts and people find it funny.

Whatever the cost with Labour.

Yes taxes will go up, because defence spending will have to go up to at least 4% of GDP... such a shame defence was still being cut as Russia rolled into Ukraine 3 years ago.

But at least should be good for the UKs defence sector, v big employer down here in Plymouth!

So not all bad news.

I'm a labour voter and I'm horrified by what they are doing.

Extraordinary that anyone could find it funny.

And everyone can blame the Tories for as long as they want - I do, because my disabled child went to private school in the first place due to not being offered a state education during a Tory government - but Labour were elected to improve the country. Not to sit there without a plan to improve state education and to slash welfare provision. But apparently it’s funny.

“Anyone who is in a position to move to Dubai, can easily afford VAT on school fees.”

You are wrong. We have loads of lawyers leaving with young kids to go there right now. For childcare and private school. Not rich enough here to afford any of it and in the most taxed brackets. Hopefully some will return.

But let’s just continue the narrative that bankers and lawyers don’t matter to the economy, shall we!

In any event, Starmer is going all Tory now anyway because he has no choice! You can’t put off businesses and send the higher earners and rich abroad or curtail their earnings. They are the ones paying for the welfare state. Populist policies were just tabled for votes.

Lawyers with young kids fleeing the UK... whatever next!!!

He's likely to do more damage as when in opposition they would have voted against.

Pp can laugh away but those on the receiving end of cuts will be feeling it.

Wiping out all that headroom - next up cuts.

The key here really is actually how much money this raises long term and if that money is indeed invested in the state system. Looking forward to hearing about all the shiny new teachers 🙂.

In the meantime however those rubbing their hands with glee will ignore the massive divide in the state education system, that is the real travesty here. Those mc parents flexing their muscles, buying houses in outstanding state school areas, sending their children to subsidised religious schools and grammars, subsidising the schools with fund raising. At least private school parents are honest about it!